Thread by @MassDara

MOD collegiums are not usually a forum for launching major updates. Mostly they are updates mil policy and modernization. Today's event was a little different and Putin again laid down his thinking on Ukraine. Storm clouds gather. My observations below (1/x).

1st: Putin's remarks are not new but lately but when you hear the tone and the alignment of forces behind it - it's an old pain & old frustration w/the security situation near Russia's border. Through his "doorstep" remarks he's all but saying he's unwilling to be cornered(2/x)

Shoygu's assessment that 120 American PMCs in Donetsk w/chemical weapons of some kind. Pardon my skepticism but don't Russian proxies and or Russian intel or others control that area? If so why would they NOT seize said actors for the PR alone? Unless it's a total canard. (3/x)

Shoygu saying Russian armies and brigades can deploy 3500 miles from home garrison, is probably the most direct confirmation right now from him about forces pooling near Ukraine. That's still pretty obscure of a reference, but he knows his target audience will understand (4/x)

Putin/Shoygu discuss how unacceptable it is for Russia if US or NATO intermediate range weapons and hypersonics near Russia. They follow that by saying RUssia continues to field the Kinzhal ALBM (Mach 10+, 2000K range). Totally discordant (5/x)

And yes, I played "where's Waldo: General Staff edition" - and found Surovkin (again, these seniors cannot skip this meeting no matter how busy they are) (6/X)

Putin was more revealing in this session than the military brass, which is expected for this format. His frustration and pessimism is palpable, the Kremlin draws the line on the ground with forces & trying to get talks ASAP. I am concerned the diplomatic window is narrowing(7/x)

It's probably wise to be prepared for a possible phase of Russian military pressure tactics in the weeks ahead, like squadrons start going up near Crimea; I see a few new NOTAMs there for next few weeks. maybe more provocative actions against US/NATO aircraft. (8/x)

To me there's nothing from this meeting & other recent actions, that suggest this is trending in a de-escalating manner for any parties - Ukraine, Russia, U.S./NATO. Every day the parties don't actively choose de-escalation, it seems like they choose a drift to conflict (9/x)