Putin and his regime have been issuing threats and ultimatums for weeks. He is cornered, not by NATO or the US, but by his own people. So he needs distractions, enemies, scapegoats, constant conflict.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1473275395466162176
I explained this dynamic when Putin went from courting the G-7 and playing democracy to invasions and threats. He was secure at home and didn't need friends anymore. He needed excuses for Russia's dismal situation after so many years of his rule.
Putin will keep attacking, threatening, and bluffing as long as he fears no risk of a defeat that could destabilize his rule in Russia, the only thing he cares about because it is the only guarantee of his money and his life.
Georgia, Syria, Ukraine, Moldova, election interference, disinformation campaigns, ransomware attacks—it's all deniable hybrid war, a perfect fit for a KGB mafia thug like Putin.
Putin is not the only one who wants deniability, however flimsy. The West also wants excuses not to confront him. To keep the flow of oligarch money, to kick things down the road to the next elected leader. So Putin keeps escalating, encouraged by this cowardice.
Putin has tried to keep Russians on a wartime footing for years. While Obama, Trump, and now Biden beg him for resets, the US is presented as enemy #1. Ukraine is the front line of Putin's war on democracy & stability and must be defended.
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