Thread by @phl43

If you're interested in European politics, you should check my post on Zemmour, who has shaken things up in the French presidential election and made it a lot more interesting. I summarize below some of the points I make, but you should read the whole thing, it's not very long ⬇️

https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1473332240092434440

After explaining who Zemmour is and how he ended up running for president after a career in journalism, I briefly describe his platform. Zemmour's main focus is immigration, which he strongly opposes, but he also has unorthodox views on foreign policy.

Many people in both France and the US have compared him to Trump. As I explain in the post, this comparison is correct in some respects, but misleading in others. Zemmour is also politically incorrect and abrasive, but unlike Trump, he is well-read and knows the issues.

One similarity with Trump is that he has a similar problem with women. However, as I argue in the post, differences between the French and American political systems mean that it's much more of a problem for Zemmour than it was for Trump. You'll have to read the post to know why!

One difference between Zemmour and Trump is that, while age and education were strongly predictive of vote for Trump, voting intentions for Zemmour are pretty balanced in terms of age and education. It's also very different from his main adversaries, Le Pen and Macron.

If he wants to reach the second round, in addition to making up some of his deficit with women, Zemmour will have to improve his score among working class people and pull enough away of them away from Le Pen, who is very strong in that group.

Will he able to pull it off? In the post, I present 2 competing hypotheses for Zemmour's limited support among working class people so far, which imply opposite answers to that question. You should read the post to know what they are.

As I note in the post, we don't have to guess about Zemmour's strategy because he's been pretty explicit about it, but in order to really understand it you have to know a bit of French political history so I give you the necessary context in the post.

He's been going down a bit in the polls lately, but his rise before that was spectacular and, while some people think he will collapse, I argue that it's unlikely. This doesn't mean he'll be able to reach the second round though, which as we have seen presents several challenges.

I discuss what will determine whether he can pull it off and assess his chances of winning and explain why, in the event that he did, the implications would be huge not only for France but also for Europe. Anyway, there is more in the post, so you should read it and stay tuned!