If you want to take advantage of low prices in China I think $TCEHY is the best bet. $BABA is slightly cheaper, but Tencent is higher quality with better management imo. Both trade at ~10-12x NTM earnings if you back out investments and cash.
2/
Both have regulatory risks, maybe slightly less so for $TCEHY since they are somewhat globally diversified through the investment portfolio.
$BABA has huge upside (uncertain) with their market leading cloud business. But Tencent could benefit from their own cloud as well.
3/
$TCEHY core business offers slightly more growth imo. But again, depends on how $BABA cloud works out for overall growth.
If I had to choose, I’d prefer my money with Pony Ma. Although I’ve got a bet on both horses in the race.
4/
Everyone is quick to say ‘but China’ and can’t move past the regulatory risks. But at some point valuation justifies the risk. I personally think we are at that valuation now. Maybe I’m wrong. We will see in 5-10yrs.
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$BABA in their most recent investor presentation reported the China cloud market size in 2020 at $32B of which they have a market share of ~30% which equated to $11B in revenues FY21.
Now here’s where it gets pretty crazy …
2/
They estimate the China cloud market size in 2025 to be $154B which is a 37% CAGR.
If $BABA maintain ~30% market share that will be $46B in revenues from the cloud business in FY25. Over 4x the current revenue for Alibaba cloud.
3/
Western cloud businesses like AWS and Azure are valued at ~15x sales or more by most analysts.
An equivalent multiple to $BABA cloud in 2025 would give a value of $693b which is over double the current market cap for Alibaba.
Coverage and commentary on a range of different asymmetric opportunities. Plenty of special situations and illiquid securities. Plus some honest opinions, no holding back.
I don't personally use or follow a strict checklist. I certainly don't think it could be used as a screening tool. But here are some general criteria I like to see in an investment.
1/ A founder-led/owner operator business with high insider ownership & a focus on long-term, intrinsic value per share growth. Ideally I'd like the CEO to have a majority of their net worth invested in the company.
2/ A sustainable competitive advantage & moat. Preferably in an industry with high barriers of entry, a low cost production advantage & pricing power. Ideally they are able to disrupt the industry.
Thread/ $HIFS - A high quality, small-cap bank with exceptional management.
1/ Hingham Institution for Savings was founded in 1834 as a mutual savings bank in Boston, Massachusetts. It eventually listed in 1988.
2/ $HIFS currently have 11 locations, 8 of which are in the South Shore of Massachusetts. The have also recently expanded into Washington D.C in which management recognise as a similar market and a growth opportunity.
3/ Currently $HIFS has a market cap of $680M. Since 1993 when the Gaughen family took full control of the bank, the stock has returned 100-1 for shareholders. Pretty impressive considering how small the company still is.