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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Dec 22, 2021 • 22 tweets • 11 min read • Read on X
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This is the most colossal Saharan #desertrain event I have ever observed and It is set to have significant impacts soon in the Middle East.
The water transport pathway is 11,000kms long, and powered by Jet Stream winds. ImageImage
Here's a zero hour weather model plot of those winds which shows that the rain is originating in the Tropical Atlantic and the great Amazon forest's monsoon. Image
The next set of graphics are from @meteoblue and show satellite weather radar estimates of where rain is falling and its intensity. These images begin on the 20th of December, where you can see intense convection over the Atlantic supercharging the event. ImageImageImageImage
Here we can see some of that convection.
These images show development of the #DesertRain impact area in the center of the Great Saharan Desert yesterday. ImageImageImageImage
And here we see it today with some measurements superimposed on the @zoom_earth imagery. ImageImageImage
And an animation of the last 24 hours. The leading edge of this will likely reach Egypt tomorrow.
Yesterday and overnight on the 20th the impacts of this water transport event in the ME were significant. This provides an over view of the same 24 hours above, but further east centered over Egypt.
Here's a closeup of the storms over Saudi Arabia and the Gulf on the night of the 20th.
And here's the picture over the Levant overnight yesterday into this morning.
Looking at rainfall today. Here we see snapshots of satellite inferred rainfall over the Sahara at 12pm 3pm and 6pm and 7.45pm AST/EAT. ImageImageImageImage
Scale wise these images show measurements of the cloud area at the front of the plume at midday and 6pm CEST (2pm and 8pm EAT). These areas are respectively 1.6 and 2.6 times the size of France. ImageImage
Some weather observations from @Arab_Storms

1. Umm al-Fahm, Northern Israel. Image
2. A water spout off the coast of Turkey.
3. A rain storm during a soccer match in Syria.
This GEFS PWAT anomaly provides a rough guide to where atmospheric water is in unusually high volume over 270 hours from December 20th.
And this GFS1Hrl model Jet Stream simulation provides us with a 16 day forecast of what's happening to the winds that are carrying the moisture eastwards. While the winds weaken a little they resume on the same trajectory as now at a similar intensity.
That previous jetstream animation also shows us that there is a nasty storm brewing in the North Atlantic. Here we see lower altitude wind intensity.
And here we see a 16-day forecast of water/energy in the Middle East.
Which according to the latest GFS model run results in this accumulating rainfall result.

NOTE: This ME rainfall forecast is unlike anything I have ever seen. And typically from what I have seen the GFS underplays rainfall forecasts in the middle east.

@Arab_Storms
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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 12
This interview with working class Uk financial markets savant Gary Stevenson - who has just published an autobiography - is seriously terrifying. He now has a @YouTube channel it seems and I’ll post a link shortly.

James O'Brien meets Gary Stevenson | LBC via @YouTube
His prognosis for the collapse of social democratic nation state finances due to the very sharp rise in income distribution inequality in the UK is horrific.

The consequences of unfettered transfers of money over decades due to neoliberal economics initially and more recently quantitative easing driven transfers of wealth from the middle class to the top 5% of the population is the cause of his concern.

It’s very hard to imagine what can be done politically to rebalance this.

Thomas Piketty’s thesis which among other things warned about all of this based on long term historical analysis of wealth inequality appears to be colliding with Western Civilisation in a manner that threatens the very foundations of that civilisation.
Gary’s YouTube channel which addresses all this is here.

Understand The Economy via @YouTubeyoutube.com/playlist?list=…
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 9
Well this was actually pretty good… very little crazy right wing stuff - none in fact - some light criticism of wokeness and a consensus that Hitler was a socialist or communist dictator not a rightwing liberal fascist - mercifully no discussion of Greenland Panama or Canada

The bit at the end was actually quite nice and agreement about ending the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Importantly and probably deliberately there was very little to zero overt electioneering - a little bit of criticism of Weidel’s Spitzencandidat competition from Weidle but nothing extreme.

So nothing imo that could be seen as being election interference IMO - nor any reason for the DSA to be concerned or to get involved.

I didn’t even hear any particularly overt endorsement that went beyond that you might hear in passing in a podcast interview.

It ended with a discussion of mars - Elon’s favourite subject of conversation - which was quite interesting including a reference to the Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy series and Douglas Adams.
From Weidel’s point of view though there was a lot of positive moderate exposure of her party and probably around 200k + listeners. Which may give her a bounce in the polls.

Also the final segment talking about space was quite delightful and genuine and portrayed the AFD Leader in a positive light.

And I’d say the two of them have both found a new friend.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 8
Comedians vs Trump and Elon /1

Trump Ratchets Up Call to Annex Canada & Greenland as Trudeau Says He'll... via @YouTube
Comedians vs Trump & Elon /2
Zuck, Meta fact checking, McDonald’s, and Amazon Cozy Up To Trump, Dropping Fact-Checkers & their integrity. via @YouTube
@YouTube Comedians vs Trump & Elon /3

SETH Meyers - Trump's Insane Press Conference About Greenland, Jack Smith, Gulf of Mex... via @YouTube
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 5
This is an update thread on this OCCRP story on @StateDept and @USAID funding for several large investigative journalism projects which has had a lot of downstream impacts it seems. Especially in Europe,

The underlying original story about govt funding for investigative journalism projects was initially flagged by @ryangrim.

This organisation - OCCRP that not many people seemed to have been aware of - was responsible for a series of outstanding investigative journalism consortia projects including the Panama papers.
This is a leaked rough cut of the NDR (German public broadcaster north west Germany) investigation into what happened With the OCCRP story.

It was never officially published but was recently leaked publicly by Wikileaks.

dalek.zone/w/xjUjomMZxRCv…
With the benefit of hindsight arguably Wikileaks ought to be the international organisation that coordinates these large investigative consortia, though it’s not clear that they want to do so.

What is clear from the fallout from all of this is that the system that was in place for running these consortia is no longer fit for purpose.
Read 8 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 2
So @elonmusk has definitely opened the doors it seems to Pandora’s box.
He may have jumped the gun a little. But he has his reasons.

Germany & Magdeburg.

But the fuse was arguably lit when the CIA and FBI Commandeered Jack Dorsey’s Twitter for its own purposes.

I don’t think we are going back.

This is the new normal.
Welcome to the era of Trump.

This is what happens when you have a VERY Messy transition of power in the Global Hegemony.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 21, 2024
This video is about the work done by the “terrorist” who drove through the Magdeburg Christmas Market tonight at high speed killing injuring around 100 people.

How does a doctor practicing as a psychiatrist go from being a women’s rights defender focussed on Assisting Islamic women to escape an oppressive culture to being a multi murderer in his adopted country.

Meet @DrTalebJawad

A very unusual terrorist.
A good starting point for those interested in getting closer to the truth about what happened tonight is to visit @DrTalebJawad ‘s Twitter profile and look at his recent messages before the account gets locked.

It is immediately apparent that this is not your normal Islamic terrorist, in fact it quickly becomes apparent from his tweets that he was likely suffering from a psychotic break or something similar before he committed the horrific act of terrorism in Magdeburg.Image
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This incident took place in Magdeburg a city relatively near to where I am currently in Eastern Germany. It was fairly late evening. But the news exploded locally very quickly on Twitter.

And the initial speculation was of course that the terrorist was Islamic and that it was another planned terror attack.

At this point several hours later however it looks like the perpetrator was having an accrue psychological break.
Read 11 tweets

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