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Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
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23 Dec, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Reminder, should you feel the urge to back the Allison Pearson horse in the columnist vs. science race - she is always, but always wrong.
Here she spuriously and performatively doesn't understand infectious disease
The second wave of infection had already started in July last year. It would go on to kill tens of thousands of people.
Having been wrong about the second wave, without the slightest hint of self consciousness she goes on to be completely wrong about the third wave
She demonstrates clearly that she doesn't understand what vaccines are and how they work - and she does this regularly
And here, today, she's claiming that the hospitalisation figures (that are rising) are a conspiracy. Straight up, this is untrue.
She regularly comes out with things like this. Uncited. Unreferenced. Unscientific. She's a dangerous gob on a stick who has been wrong, every time, about everything. Of course she hates science, it stands for reason, knowledge, education and hard work.

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More from @gnomeicide

Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
24 Dec
Record Covid cases again in the UK today, deaths up, hospitalisations rising FAST. Here's the overall picture, I'll go into each trend over the next however many tweets. (1) Image
Deaths are rising again. Two of the last 3 days have seen big rises. Its not in itself huge yet but its cause for concern (2) Image
Todays total of 137 is way over trend, sufficient to change things from a weekly fall of 0.3% to a rise of 0.3% after today. (3) Image
Read 19 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
23 Dec
Not a full thread today. Obviously cases continue to skyrocket. But hospitalisations are, as I said, the next marker to look at. And there they go. We know that for the 20th and the 22nd they're also over 1000, we have English data but not all the rest (1)
20th of December we already know will be over 1080, and the 21st over 1100 (waiting on Scottish data for that). Hospitalisations are starting to rise quite fast. If that follows the trend for cases, even a little, its a huge problem (2)
I guess my point is that hospitalisations are rising right on schedule - it remains only to be seen how far they rise. With cases rising so fast, even the reduction in proportion being hospitalised won't be enough to keep pressure on the NHS down (3)
Read 4 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
22 Dec
Covid data in the UK again worrying. Here's the overall picture before looking more closely. tl;dr - we are on the edge of the precipice (1) Image
In a break from tradition I feel I must cover recorded cases first. We've gone over 100k reported cases in a day for the first time. 106,122 to be precise. The trajectory is bonkers (2) Image
643,216 cases over the last 7 days. 2nd day in teh 600k's. we were in the 500k's for 3 days, the 400ks for 4 days. In the 300k's for 21days. The recent rate of growth is extraordinary. (3) Image
Read 20 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
20 Dec
Covid data has gone bonkers. I wasn't planning to do a thread today, but what the hell, why not. Here's the overall picture before some more detailed analysis. (1)
Deaths continue to fall ever so slowly, which is a remarkable testament to the incredible inroads made with vaccines and treatments - by now cases should be rising, following cases haven risen for weeks (2)
But 111 deaths a day remains terrible. And the rate of fall, under 1% a day, is barely perceptible (3)
Read 26 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
18 Dec
You may be under the misapprehension that crap bought mince pies with sweet shortcrust pastry are the right mince pies. They are not. They're terrible. Make real mince pies, do it right. Start with making butter puff paste... Image
Make lots, it freezes. Then roll out and cut out some circles, and roll the scraps up and roll out THIN, and cut the same number of slightly smaller circles. The small, thin circles are your bases. Put mince on each (about which more later) on each... Image
...seal the larger, thicker circles on top with egg, then egg glaze... Image
Read 8 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
18 Dec
So... Today, projections for Covid cases in the UK based on the 7 and 14 trends are almost irrelevant. Last Saturday it was 54073, on trend we're looking at 67000-75000 (a broad spread because of the recent stratospheric rise) but after 93045 yesterday thats unlikely (1)
Deaths continue to fall very slowly, on average. 126-129 after 132 last Saturday. The rate of fall is almost imperceptible, 0.6% a day right now, and that is trending the wrong way. Hospitalisations are rising (2)
...and its only falling because boosters are keeping the proportion who are infected dying falling. But cases have been rising -fast- for a while now (3)
Read 4 tweets

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