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Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
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18 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
So... Today, projections for Covid cases in the UK based on the 7 and 14 trends are almost irrelevant. Last Saturday it was 54073, on trend we're looking at 67000-75000 (a broad spread because of the recent stratospheric rise) but after 93045 yesterday thats unlikely (1)
Deaths continue to fall very slowly, on average. 126-129 after 132 last Saturday. The rate of fall is almost imperceptible, 0.6% a day right now, and that is trending the wrong way. Hospitalisations are rising (2)
...and its only falling because boosters are keeping the proportion who are infected dying falling. But cases have been rising -fast- for a while now (3)
...so I'm saying all bets are off, and your guess is as good as mine. Cross your fingers. Stay safe. Don't become part of the statistics. (fin)

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More from @gnomeicide

Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
20 Dec
Covid data has gone bonkers. I wasn't planning to do a thread today, but what the hell, why not. Here's the overall picture before some more detailed analysis. (1) Image
Deaths continue to fall ever so slowly, which is a remarkable testament to the incredible inroads made with vaccines and treatments - by now cases should be rising, following cases haven risen for weeks (2) Image
But 111 deaths a day remains terrible. And the rate of fall, under 1% a day, is barely perceptible (3) Image
Read 26 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
18 Dec
You may be under the misapprehension that crap bought mince pies with sweet shortcrust pastry are the right mince pies. They are not. They're terrible. Make real mince pies, do it right. Start with making butter puff paste... Image
Make lots, it freezes. Then roll out and cut out some circles, and roll the scraps up and roll out THIN, and cut the same number of slightly smaller circles. The small, thin circles are your bases. Put mince on each (about which more later) on each... Image
...seal the larger, thicker circles on top with egg, then egg glaze... Image
Read 8 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
24 Oct
When I was a kid, whole stretches of the UK coastline were filthy. There were places covered in industrial waste (literally black with coal waste). You could get advice on where the coast was too polluted to gather shellfish...
...you didn't go into the sea if you could see an outlet of any kind. The whole coastline was suspect, it was common enough for people to get sick after swimming in the sea...
...wild swimming? That wasn't a thing. Except for a few weirdos. Triathletes and people who did it competitively were extremely careful about where and how...
Read 14 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
20 Jul
Terrible Covid data in the UK today. 46558 cases and 93 deaths. Exponentials will bite you in the arse every single time. Here's the overall picture before delving deeper (1)
On exponential plots its fairly obvious whats going on. A straight line on a log plot means your're going up at an exponential rate. Cases and deaths are rising exponentially. (2)
93 deaths takes the 7 day total to 339. Its the highest single day total since the 24th of March, and the highest 7 day total since the 30th of March. And rising FAST. (3)
Read 18 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
18 Jul
I think perhaps today I'll slant my regular look at Covid stats in the UK towards whats happened over the last 7 days, to give us a fuller view where we're going as we foolishly throw all caution to the wind. Here's the overall picture before a deep dive (1) Image
We've had 283 deaths over the last 7 days, up from 203. Thats a 40% rise in 7 days. (2) Image
The rate of rise has been more or less constant all week. Yes, its a lower base we're rising from, butwe continue to see deathsrising exponentially (3) Image
Read 18 tweets
Cab Davidson #FBPE Profile picture
6 Jul
Overall Covid scenario in the UK isn't looking good. Its not all bad, but we're hitting some desperately grim milestones right now. Here's the overall picture. Strap in. This is gong to take some working through (1)
Deaths and cases are rising exponentially, but not on the same exponent. There is no such thing as an exponential rise in either thats not terrible news though (2)
37 deaths today is the highest single day total since St. Georges day, and the 7 day rolling average is over 20 now for the first time since the 29th of April. An exponential rise means things get worse at a proportionally constant speed - 1,2,4,8,16,32... (3)
Read 24 tweets

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