Watching the annual end of year press conference that Russian President, Vladimir Putin, conducts with local and foreign media. It is now in (at least) its second hour. Wondering whether US President Biden, who has no less sycophantic a local media, could do this for as long?
Putin just said what is in Ukraine is the western frontier of historic Russia - and that the idea of Ukraine only exists because of Lenin (!) and as the Soviet Union disappeared, so should the conception of a separate Ukraine .....
Putin talking a lot about NATO expansion to Russia's borders ... in the 1990s, everyone from George Kennan down who had any knowledge of Russian history said that NATO expansion would sow enmity with Russia & ensure Russia would raise up a nationalist leader bent on revanchism...
Putin really going into a widely held history of Russian grievances - Russia in 1990s was on its knees, there were Western officials in the Russian Govt, and then the West expanded NATO to a weak Russia's borders .... 'to hell with the West's concerns' or words to that effect
Strong sense that Putin's grievance is less about Ukraine per se (his answer rambled) than getting Russia out of the 1990s mindset & forcing the West to show Russia the respect its history and size demands (his answer was unusually passionate).
Just in case Putin’s comments about NATO’s successive expansions since the 1990s were not forceful enough … the RT chryon reinforcing the message
Putin now defending Gazprom’s record of delivering gas to European customers … says the American suppliers are unreliable & only Russia is a cheap, reliable, and all weathers, energy supplier (distinct message to Berlin here in a cold northern winter).
Putin offering to help resolve issues with Gazprom supplies & European customers .... Putin's tone and substance along the lines of 'gas supplies can be plentiful .... or not' & is directed to Berlin (where temperature right now is -1°C!)
Putin returning again to the Minsk Accords & demands that the Donbass people determine their own future (sounds like a demand at least for a local plebiscite that would transfer parts of east Ukraine to Russia ... conducted by the "little green men"?)

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More from @GrayConnolly

22 Dec
I wrote this in July 2018 on "The Sources Of Russian Conduct" with a particular focus on Russian geopolitics, military history, strategic culture, and the view from the Kremlin. Always try to understand your adversary on his own terms.

strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/07/source…
I would note Putin's comments below on the demise of "Historical Russia" that includes Belarus, Ukraine & the Baltics, are widely shared among Russians (inc diaspora). If Putin was replaced tomorrow by the Tsar, the Tsar would share Putin aims & policies
rferl.org/a/putin-histor…
Given reporting of RUS/UKR situation, WW2 maps should concentrate minds as Eastern Front defences/offensives are a staple of Russian military staff study. There is no easy way to resupply UKR in Winter even (bravely) assuming European aid in NATO [cheap RUS gas conflicts Europe]
Read 13 tweets
20 Dec
I will never understand how getting jabbed with highly efficacious vaccines ever became a political issue. I will, likewise, never understand how conspiratorial, anti-vax thinking, hitherto always lampooned as a staple of far Left fringe hippies, made its way into the Right.
I will likewise never understand how so many on the Left - who cry about 'team humanity' & 'over policing' - became so enamoured with absurdly punitive restrictions on freedom of movement & prevention of familial reunions, even as we have highly efficacious vaccines.
TL:DR Horseshoe theory is real. If you are, politically, somewhere around the centre/your work requires you to grapple with reality, then regardless if you drift Left or Right, you have more in common than you do with your politics' fringes.
Read 6 tweets
17 Dec
New South Wales is one of the most vaccinated jurisdictions on earth. You will note that our case numbers have surged but NOT our hospitalisations ie the Vaccines work. Those peddling Omicron hysteria on case numbers (& ignoring hospitals) are malignants pushing an anti-Vax case. Image
The Australian Capital Territory (our capital/public service jurisdiction) is heavily vaccinated & has new cases but not new hospitalisation pressures.

The State of Victoria is heavily vaccinated - it has had a large rise in new Covid cases but slightly fewer people hospitalised and in ICUs.

Read 5 tweets
16 Dec
Not sure why Australia is trending here but my reminder we are one of the most vaccinated nations on earth & many now getting their boosters. Clearly, vast majority of Australians are neither anti-vaxx cranks nor covid doomers. Be suspicious of anyone saying a video is from here
If there has been one upside to Covid, it has been, to borrow the Biblical metaphor, to bring us all into the light & so we can see people and things as they truly are. The sheer number of very online people who have used Covid to grift off people's fears has shocked even me.
Whether it is people casting doubts on either the efficaciousness of Covid Vaccines or just misreporting the severity and frequency of Vaccine side effects .... We live in an age of justified public scepticism & whole cohorts of people wanting to just grift off this distrust.
Read 6 tweets
15 Dec
It is Christmas and it is the Australian summer: if you [esp if you are in media / the ABC] want to stay home, wear a mask, perhaps two masks, you are perfectly at liberty to do so. The rest of us will make our own decisions. We are one of the most vaccinated countries on earth.
Btw get your booster shot esp if you are someone who needs boosting. Vaccinations are the way out/through this madness, as the panicked and fearmongering Media & lunatic Anti-Vaxxers join hands in the age of Omicron to say (explicitly or impliedly) they do not trust the Vaccines.
The only valid case for restrictions in 2021-2022 is if the hospital systems are being overwhelmed (noting a lot of doctors are about to go on Summer holidays, too). Absent that, we have annual Flus & Flu jabs, and we can reasonably expect Covid jabs may be an annual jab, too.
Read 4 tweets
14 Dec
No, the ABC would never hype the most inane Covid hysteria in one of the world’s most vaccinated nations as the summer holidays and long awaited family reunions beckon … no, not at all. Image
Australia has, for almost 2 years, been divided from the one country we all share into the most provincial fiefdoms. No entity has now done more to spread Covid fear & hype - causing spineless Govts to close borders etc and separate families - than the ABC's resident hysterics. Image
Australians got vaccinated, use their QR codes, played the game etc. This has to be it. Living with Covid means living with Covid. It will be around as the Flu is around. You can get a Flu shot each year. Or not. We have had 2 years of this .... time to "Advance Australia" etc
Read 4 tweets

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