695k reported today, up just 11%, but after last week's 84% increase it still means it's more than double the figure of two weeks ago.
Total is now 26.6m, being 71% of those eligible by the year end.
1/
The low % increase today means a flattening of the previous steep curve over the last 10 days, which isn't at all surprising.
Whilst we haven't quite hit the target to get 90% done, in practice I doubt take-up will be that high, particularly amongst younger adults.
2/
Next the age-banded analysis, with the dark purple showing progress since the accelerated campaign started. Pale blue bars now sum to just over 10.5m, or just under 7m if 90% come forward in aggregate.
3/
Here are current take-up proportions. We've done 87% of the Over 50s and 92% over aged 65. A bit more progress further down over the rest of the year would be very welcome though, although the large number of positive tests will mean some can't come forward unfortunately.
4/
Next progress over the last month.
Although most of the activity is lower down, I was pleased to see 70-79 nudge up to 94% today and 80+ is still going up by around 0.3% a day so should get to 90% in due course.
50-59 hit 80% today too with a remarkably linear line.
5/
So in summary, some great protection now for the oldest most vulnerable age groups, thanks to a herculean effort by all those involved. Thanks as ever to all involved from the top down to all those involved in the vax centres up and down the country.
6/6
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A great thread on the state pension and National Insurance.
For me, the trailed abolition of NI and thus its replacement by general taxation in terms of funding state pension benefits will have a major generational redistribution of tax.
It’s been the case that (in aggregate) at any one time the working generation funds the SPs of the retired generation above it.
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If the abolition of NI results in an increase (albeit smaller - else why bother) in income tax, whilst those in work will in total be better off, pensioners will be worse off.
3/
The Pensions & Lifetime Savings Association has updated its guide to living costs in retirement. The full report is well worth a read, and goes into a lot of detail.
One key point is that it assumes that pensioners own their home outright - probably reasonable now, but the shift to renting means that in future years that may become increasingly questionable.
2/
It focuses on retirement income, but note that other sources may be used to fund retirement, whether it be income from savings/investments, or gradual withdrawal of capital. Much more likely to be relevant for those aspiring to a comfortable lifestyle of course.
3/
UKHSA estimates that prevalence of COVID in England and Scotland has nearly tripled in the month since the ONS restarted its COVID infection surveillance.
Fortunately prevalence is lowest at the oldest, more vulnerable age groups, but is estimated at just under 6% in the 18 to 44 age groups.
2/
Prevalence is estimated to be highest in the London area, at just over 6% across the population. Note though that confidence intervals are wider due to lower sample sizes than in previous studies.
So with the news this morning that the earnings growth announced today means the state pension (SP) will very likely increase by another 8.5% next year, it's time to set out once again why the SP triple lock (TL) is such a bad idea.
1/
It's all down to cherry-picking the best of the three rates each year. I did a thread nearly a year ago, that hopefully sets out clearly how the mechanism inevitably means that the SP will grow over time against both earnings (E) and prices (P).
With BH's still distorting individual weeks' figures, the cumulative position gives a better view, with the latest CMI age-standardised analysis showing mortality 3.8% (of a full year's mortality) worse than its reference year of 2019.
Here's the mea culpa - it was only wrong by a factor of 13, but at least the post has been deleted rather than just corrected and left up, when experience shows that only a fraction of the original audience will see the correction.
So what are the true numbers?
2/
In E&W the peak week in 2020 was just under 9,000, and the second wave peak was pretty close to that number.
In total ONS has recorded 199,728 COVID related deaths in E&W since the pandemic started.