Thread by @bladerunner3049

If you traded 1 contract per 100K, futures on average fluctuate 20-30 points per day, that’s 1% move on equity. #ES_F

If 1% is your stop loss acct equity per trade, how much of a buffer do you need for entries after a multi session move down. #ES_F or volatility in general will kick off most stop losses for most accts.

The session starts at Euro open 2am NYC time not 9:30 .. #ES_F

So can you trade a 10k acct with 1k stop loss and not hit 5 losing trades in a row to 5k or 50% drawdown. #ES_F

Every 50 point profit is 2.5 extra trades you buy for your acct. #ES_F

With under capitalized accts, it’s all about buying ‘life’ for the acct. #ES_F can’t trade in the middle, need to find outliers where volatility doesn’t throw your trade off before reverting to profit.

You have to wait longer timeframe outliers before attempting to buy ‘life’ #ES_F

It means you patiently wait, just watch for that higher probability setup. If you try to trade everyday it’s gambling. #ES_F your implying your setups manifest everyday.

Goal for orderflow trader is to capture more profit points than the day point range of session. Otherwise why slice and dice with 50 decisions per session and stress involved. #ES_F

A swing trader captures all the points of a session since only 1-3 decisions made a few days ago. #ES_F and holds the position to next outlier.

Every day has a predefined trend that is already predetermined before session starts. Figuring out that trend is 75% of the trade. If you know which direction, entries are just fine tuned against the noise variance. #ES_F

If you know the trend it can cover a lot of mistakes in predicting entry outlier. #ES_F

You should not trade against that predefined trend, the point profit is not worth it. #ES_F

So what makes a great discretionary trader? It’s the ability to know the macro trend of that derivative, #ES_F and honoring the statistics behind that derivative for risk management.

If you can generate 10% per year and ability to scale up without compromising edge and not have large drawdowns. You can attract billions to manage. #ES_F or why the headache, just keep scaling up your funds.

It won’t be just #ES_F you can apply techniques to all the major #macro derivatives. Each one has its own ‘flavor’ or statistics personality on how it trades. #CL_F #ZB_F

Can you make 10k on 100k, if so can you make 100mil on a bil. 1000 lot using 100 mil, can you make 10 mil? The more you scale up the longer the timeframes need to be, just end up being a swing trader. #ES_F