Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #macro

Most recents (24)

The Weekly Recap (12.06.23 ~ 16.06.23) ๐Ÿงต

Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.

Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.

#MacroMonday #market
1. We kicked off the week with our CPI Preview, highlighting the importance of keeping an eye out for the #used cars and #shelter prints.

2. This was followed by an in-depth analysis of the #fiscal impulse. Overall, our assessment suggested that government #revenues continue to paint a picture of weak private sector conditions.

Read 9 tweets
The Weekly Recap (05.06.23 ~ 10.06.23) ๐Ÿงต

Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.

Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.
1. We started the week by sharing updates on the latest #construction data. Overall, we noted that residential construction spending improved recently, that also flowed into our GDP Nowcast and real GDP estimate.

2. Next, we provided an update on the latest readings from our Market Regime Monitor and the latest Prometheus Trend Signals.

Read 7 tweets
๐ŸงตSmartkarma #macro #threadoftheday

How the Treasury Refresh May Not Be Catastrophic
โ€” Cam Hui @HumbleStudent

1/ Image
The U.S. Treasury market is expected to see a flood of new issuance which would draw liquidity from the financial system and create headwinds for the price of risk assets.

2/ Image
Tthere may be a narrow benign liquidity path for the Treasury account reset if the assets parked at the Fedโ€™s reverse repo facility shift into Treasury paper.

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Key Takeaways from Month in Macro

1. Nominal #GDP slowed through April, with real GDP contracting by -0.47% and #inflation rising by 0.23%. #Nominal GDP has grown approximately 4.7% from one year prior, continuing the downtrend beginning in February 2022. ImageImage
2. During this time, #equity markets have posed significant strength (though lopsided), while #treasury markets have weakened in unison. ImageImage
3. Looking forward, these sequential improvements have adjusted our #real growth outlook, with a #contraction in yearly real GDP growth more likely in H1 2024 than in Q4 2023. Our #inflation outlook remains one of resilient inflation. Image
Read 5 tweets
Market Regime Update

1. Over the last week, assets rallied in unison. Below, we show stocks, commodities, and bonds were up while the dollar sold off. Image
2. The strength of the moves in commodities has filtered through to the one-month pricing of rising growth outcomes. We show our market regime measures below. Image
3. While near-term pricing has been of rising growth, the distribution of regime probabilities remains flat, as highlighted above. Our non-linear trend process has worked well in navigating these conflicting market regime dynamics.
Read 6 tweets
In webcast โ€œDust in the Crevices,โ€ Jeffrey Gundlach shares his macro and market views and makes the case for an imminent dust-up, โ€œin the next few years,โ€ in Washingtonโ€™s decades-long use of debt finance to skirt hard fiscal decisions.

#macro #markets #Fed #inflation #rates
โ€œHere we are in an economy that is supposedly growing, and yet we have 7.3% budget deficit as a % of GDP,โ€ DoubleLine CEO and founder Jeffrey Gundlach says.

That figure is probably headed much higher, especially if the U.S. enters recession. Image
In the wake of hikes of 525 bps in the fed funds rate and 400 bps along many parts of the Treasury curve, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach notes the burden of federal debt service has surged higher in dollar terms and as a percentage of GDP.

Watch: Image
Read 28 tweets
Sector rotation(s) should be a sign of โ€œhealthierโ€ market participation, however only time will tellโ€ฆ ๐Ÿ”„๐Ÿ“Š

$SPY $SPX $IWM $RUT $QQQ $NDX $DIA $DJIA #stocks #macro #economy #earnings Image
Has the $IWM / $SPY ratio (S&P 500/Russell 2000 Small Caps) finally reached oversold territory, as #tech takes a breather & the broader market looks to soak up some of the liquidity flows? ๐Ÿ”„๐Ÿ“ˆ

๐Ÿ“Šh/t @OnTheTapePod @RiskReversal_ @GuyAdami @CarterBWorth for the chart note๐Ÿ’ก

$SPXโ€ฆโ€ฆ Image
$NDX / $RUT (@Nasdaq/Russell 2000 Small Caps) ratio coming off levels not seen since the 00' .com bubble/bust... ๐Ÿ”„๐Ÿ“‰โš ๏ธ

$SPX $SPY $IWM $RUT $DIA $DJIA #stocks #macro #economy #earnings $TSLA $APPL $MSFT $NVDA $AMZN $META $GOOGL Image
Read 5 tweets
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents Total Return webcast "Dust in the Crevices" today at 1:15pm PT.

Stay tuned here for more.

#markets #macro #bonds Image
Jeffrey Gundlach: There is dust in the crevices of our financial institutions.

The debt ceiling has been raised 99 times since it started in 1913.

This method of getting along is getting pretty dusty.
Gundlach: U.S. Federal Budget Balance as a percentage of GDP on a rolling 1-year basis: We've been in a trend toward worse and worse budget deficits as a percentage of GDP.
Read 38 tweets
The Weekly Recap ๐Ÿงต

Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.

Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.
1. We started the week with discussing our view ahead for markets. Our systematic view is that we are headed towards a stagflationary recession.

2. Re 1, we further contextualised our view by sharing our systematic updates on inflation & growth.

Read 12 tweets
On Construction Data ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿš๏ธ

1. The most recent data for April show construction spending increased by 1.24%, with 0.2% and 1.04% coming from residential and nonresidential spending, respectively. Image
2. This data surprised consensus expectations of 0.2% and contributed to an acceleration in the twelve-month trend.
3. For further context, we show the composition of the most change in monthly construction spending. The strongest contributor to construction spending in April was Manufacturing, while the weakest was Religious construction spending: Image
Read 8 tweets
Resilient US Consumer ๐Ÿงต

1. In April, households saw incomes increase as employment and inflation contributed to nominal incomes. Alongside this increase in employment income, we also saw continued support from income on assets total incomes. Below we show the composition: Image
2. Personal income increased by 0.36% in April, disappointing consensus expectations of 0.4%. This print contributed to a sequential deceleration in the quarterly trend relative to the yearly trend.
3. The primary drivers of this print were Employee Compensation (0.6%) & Income on Assets (0.25%). Over the last year, Employee Compensation (3.36%), Rental Income (0.5%), & Income on Assets (0.96%). have been the primary sources of the 5.43% growth in income.
Read 18 tweets
๐Ÿงต Our Thoughts On $SPY :

1. Over May, the S&P 500 rose 0.87%, primarily driven by valuations. Earnings expectations & valuations contributed 0.13% & 0.74% to the 0.87% rise in markets. Below, we show the sequential evolution of market prices, along a decomposition: Image
2. Over the last year, the S&P 500 has been dominantly driven by valuations, with total returns rising by 1.03%. We show cumulative returns on the S&P 500 over the last year, decomposed into earnings expectations and valuations: Image
3. We further decompose these yearly returns into their sector contributions. We begin by showing the primary drivers of the S&P 500. We show the top three drivers in blue (Technology, Financials, Industrials) & the bottom three in red (Consumer Disc., Healthcare, Energy): Image
Read 14 tweets
Weekly Recap

Do not worry in case you missed out on any action from @prometheusmacro last week. Below we pen down all the key takeaways & opinion threads that were shared with the wider community. Make sure to #SubscribeToday so that you don't miss any of the updates.
1. We introduced the 'Prometheus Daily Trend Signals' to share the latest trend updates for all 37 ETFs across four asset classes daily.

2. Next, we presented a first glimpse of the Cyclical Rotation Strategy for Equities.

Read 9 tweets
On Wages, Profits & Interest Expense

1. The current macroeconomic picture remains where heightened nominal demand continues to press against the economy's capacity constraints, creating heightened inflation. Image
2. We think these dynamics will
likely be resolved through the Fed's tightening cycle by raising interest burdens in the economy relative to incomes, creating pressure on profitability for companies, and leading to an eventual lay-off of
3. Therefore, the key to understanding whether the Fed's hiking cycle has been adequate is
whether profits will contract. This profit contraction will likely come from declining topline, sticky wages, and increasing debt service costs.
Read 8 tweets
1. Our process tells us that we are likely headed towards a stagflationary environment, i.e., with growth contracting and inflation likely to be persistent. This regime tends to be one of the worst for passive investors, the reasoning for which is twofold. Image
2. Recessions are the primary risk to stocks as nominal spending collapses. At the same time, inflationary episodes are the primary risk to bonds as their fixed interest rate becomes less attractive relative to other nominal assets.
3. While we intend to provide a more in-depth commentary on both of these components separately in our upcoming Month in Macro report, we provide a sneak peek in what will be further elaborated on.
Read 9 tweets
ื›ืžื” ื ืงื•ื“ื•ืช ืžืขื ื™ื™ื ื•ืช ืžืกืงื™ืจืช ืขื ืฃ ื”ื ื“ืœืดืŸ ืฉืคื•ืจืกื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืฆื•ื•ืช ืžื—ืงืจ ื ื“ืœืดืŸ ื‘ืื’ืฃ ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื ื™ืช ื”ืจืืฉื™ืช ื‘ืื•ืฆืจ:
#pinnedtweet @ShaharHen_ #Macro
1/ื‘ื—ื•ื“ืฉ ืžืจืฅ ื ืžืฉื›ื” ื”ื™ืจื™ื“ื” ื”ื—ื“ื” ื‘ืžืกืคืจ ื”ืขืกืงืื•ืช, ื›ืืฉืจ ืืœื• ื”ืกืชื›ืžื• ื‘-6,785 ื“ื™ืจื•ืช, ื™ืจื™ื“ื” ืฉืœ 46% ื‘ื”ืฉื•ื•ืื” ืœืžืจืฅ ืืฉืชืงื“, ืฉื™ืขื•ืจ ื”ื™ืจื™ื“ื” ื”ื—ื“ ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ืืจื‘ืขืช ื”ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื™ื, ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื’ื ืื—ืช ื”ืจืžื•ืช ื”ื ืžื•ื›ื•ืช ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ืฉื ืจืฉืžื• ื‘ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™ ืžืจืฅ ืžืื– ืชื—ื™ืœืช ืฉื ื•ืช ื”ืืœืคื™ื™ื ืœืคื—ื•ืช
2/ื”ื™ืจื™ื“ื” ื”ื—ื“ื” ื‘ืžื›ื™ืจื•ืช ื‘ืื–ื•ืจื™ ื”ื‘ื™ืงื•ืฉ ื‘ืžืจื›ื– ื”ืืจืฅ ื‘ื•ืœื˜ืช ื‘ืžื™ื•ื—ื“ ื‘ืฉืœื•ืฉืช ื”ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื™ื, ื‘ืคืจื˜ ื‘ืคืœื— ื”ืฉื•ืง ืฉืœ ื”ื“ื™ืจื•ืช ื”ื—ื“ืฉื•ืช ื”ื ืžื›ืจื•ืช ื‘ืฉื•ืง ื”ื—ื•ืคืฉื™, ืจืง ืžืจืฅ 2002, 2003 ื•2020 ื ืจืฉืžื• ืจืžื•ืช ื ืžื•ื›ื•ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ
ื‘ืคืœื— ื”ืฉื•ืง ืฉืœ ื“ื™ืจื•ืช ื™ื“ ืฉื ื™ื” ื ืžื•ื›ื” ืจืžืช ื”ืขืกืงืื•ืช ื‘ืžืจืฅ ื”ืื—ืจื•ืŸ ืืฃ ืžื–ื• ืฉืœ ืžืจืฅ 2020 Image
Read 25 tweets
๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์ง€ํ‘œ์—๋Š” ์„ ํ–‰๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ, ์ˆœํ™˜๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ, ์ด๊ฒฝ์ œ์ง€ํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค

์ด์ค‘ ์„ ํ–‰๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์ง€ํ‘œ์™€ ์ˆœํ™˜๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋งˆ์ด๋„ˆ์Šค๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ์„๋•Œ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ 100%์˜ ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์นจ์ฒด๋ฅผ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ImageImage
์œ„์˜ ๊ทธ๋ฆผ์„ ๋ณด๋ฉด
๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์„ ํ–‰์€ ๋งˆ์ด๋„ˆ์Šค
์ˆœํ™˜๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ณง ๋งˆ์ด๋„ˆ์Šค๋ฅผ ์‹œ์‚ฌํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ 4์›”๋ฐœํ‘œ๋œ ์ง€ํ‘œ๋ฅผ ์ข…ํ•ฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ณง 5์›”์ฏค์— ์ ์šฉ์ด๋˜๋ฉด ๊ณต์‹ ์ˆœํ™˜๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ๋„ ๋งˆ์ด๋„ˆ์Šค๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ•˜๊ฒŒ๋œ๋‹ค.
ํ˜„ ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ์— ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ์ธํ•˜๋ฅผ
์ปจ์„ผ์‹œ์Šค๋กœ ์žก๊ณ ์žˆ๋‹ค
๊ทธ์— ๋งž๊ฒŒ ์‹œ์žฅ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ๋„ ํ˜•์„ฑ๋˜์–ด์žˆ๋‹ค.
์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด 3๋ถ„๊ธฐ์ธ 9/20์ผ ์ฏ”์Œ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ์ธํ•˜๋กœ ๋ณด๊ณ ์žˆ์Œ Image
Read 6 tweets
๊ณต๋ถ€ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์•Œ๊ฒŒ๋œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค

1. ๋น„ํŠธ์ฝ”์ธ์€ ๋ฐ˜๊ฐ๊ธฐ๋ณด๋‹จ ๋งคํฌ๋กœ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์›€์ง์˜€๋‹ค

2. ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๋น„ํŠธ์ฝ”์ธ ๋ฐ˜๊ฐ๊ธฐ๋Š” ์„ ๊ฑฐ์‹œ๊ธฐ , ๋งคํฌ๋กœํšŒ๋ณต ์‹œ๊ธฐ์™€ ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ ธ๋‹ค

3. ์ด๋ฒˆ ๋งคํฌ๋กœ ํšŒ๋ณต์€ ์ตœ์†Œ 2๋…„ ์ด์ƒ ๊ฑธ๋ฆด๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค(core cpi ๋…„๊ฐ„ 1ํ”„๋กœ์”ฉ ๋–จ์–ด์ง€๋Š”์ค‘)

4. ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ์ธ์ƒ์ด ๋ฉˆ์ถ”๋ฉด ๋‹จ๊ธฐ๋ž ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์™”๋‹ค

#bitcoin #macro
5. ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ธํ•˜์‹œ์—” ์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ํญ๋ฝ์žฅ์ด ์™”๋‹ค

6. ์‹ ์šฉ๊ฒฝ์ƒ‰์ด ์ผ์œผํ‚ฌ ๋‚˜๋น„ํšจ๊ณผ๋Š” ์•„์ง ๋‚˜์˜ค์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด๋‹ค

7. ์˜๊ตฌ ์‹ค์—…๋ฅ ์„ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ์‹ค์—…์ˆ˜๋‹น ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฑด ์•„์ด๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆํ•˜๋‹ค

8. ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ค์—…์ˆ˜๋‹น์ฒญ๊ตฌ์น˜๋Š” ์ตœ์ €์—์„œ ๊ณ ๊ฐœ๋ฅผ ๋“œ๋Š”์ค‘
9. ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ž ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์ด ๋–จ์–ด์ง„๋‹ค๊ณ ํ•ด์„œ ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋‚ฎ์•„์ง„๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ณ ๊ณต์—์„œ ๋ฉˆ์ถฐ์žˆ๋Š”๊ฒƒ

10. ์ €๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๋กœ ์‹ค์ ์—†์ด ๋จน๊ณ ์‚ด๋˜ ์ข€๋น„ํšŒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐˆ์ˆ˜๋ก ์ƒํ™˜๊ธฐ์ผ์ด ๋‹ค๊ฐ€์˜ค๊ณ ์žˆ๋‹ค

11. ์ œ์กฐ์—… ์ˆ˜๋ จ์ž๋“ค์˜ ๋…ธ๋™์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์ค„์–ด๋“œ๋Š”์ค‘์ด๋‹ค
Read 9 tweets
์‹œ์žฅ ๋‚™๊ด€vs ์‹œ์žฅ ๋น„๊ด€



#macro #bitcoin

1. 6์›”ํ™์ฝฉ ๋ฆฌ์˜คํ”„๋‹

2. ํ…Œ๋”์‚ฌ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ๋งˆ๋‹ค 5๋งŒ๊ฐœ์”ฉ ๋น„ํŠธ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ

3.๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋””ํดํŠธ ํ•ด์†Œ

1. ๋งคํฌ๋กœ ์˜ํ–ฅ (๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ,๋ฌผ๊ฐ€๋“ฑ)

2. ๋น„ํŠธ ์ˆ˜์ˆ˜๋ฃŒ์ƒ์Šน

3. ์ด๋”๋ฆฌ์›€ ์ฒด์ธ ๋ฉˆ์ถค์ด์Šˆ

4. ๋ฉˆ์ถ”์ง€์•Š๋Š” sec
Read 4 tweets
#China's GDP (in nominal terms) will never surpass the #US GDP.

For a long time, I have been sceptical of the forecasts that have predicted otherwise. I have been open to the possibility of a short-term situation in the mid-2030s, where it was temporarily higher.

#macro Image
Now, I do not even believe that anymore.

Some months ago, the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) predicted that it will not happen at all. Why? Simply because nothing grows forever.

#china #us #macro Image
#China has at least three major issues that will slow down its growth to a very low level. Two of these are domestic, but only one is "possible" to address properly. The last one is more international.

#macro #growth Image
Read 8 tweets
At last !!
A new Acid Capitalist Podcast...

With the indomitable, @Brad_Setser, a senior fellow, no less, of the Council of Foreign Relations
And boy !
Do I have things to get off my chest...
I will complete this tomorrow
So much to say, so little space Image
Now what doesn't Brad know about foreign trade and the conduct of sovereign nations ?? What doesn't he know about how they conduct themselves in this merry-go-round of economic bedevilment ? He was the perfect and most generous host to titivate my curiosity.
Brad's a master at throwing light on those nations that suppress the scale of their surplus savings and FX exchange balances. The real QE masters that have driven our asset prices to the sky...
And he's not afraid to speak his mind.
Just what could we possibly have to discuss?
Read 25 tweets
1/ Time for a comprehensive thread on current Labor market conditions incl some key indicators to watch closely:

These charts look under the hood of payrolls & unemployment to see how conditions are shifting

We know employment is still increasing:

#macro #stocks $SPY $QQQ Image
2/ But less well understood is that under the payroll strength is both falling Hires and Separations.

With labor demand still strong, Quits remain elevated and Layoffs low. But Hires & Separations have both already normalized back to 2019 levels. Image
3/ From here, we may well see Separations flatten (already apparent) with reducing Quits as conditions soften (people hold onto jobs) offset by rising Layoffs.

However Hires are likely to continue to fall based on 2 things shown below: Employment intentions & Sales expectations
Read 20 tweets
The anatomy of a successful $SPY trade in a choppy day like today:
A thread ๐Ÿงต #SPY #SPX
1a- Contextual understanding
#Macro level
I posted this last night. The rotation from tech to Financial sector was the intervening variable pushing spy & QQQ down. QQQ bottomed at $308 that's when $SPY started to move up:
1b- Knowing confluence levels, major points of interest, and support and resistance. I posted these last night for twitter super followers. Draw lines for yourself of price rejection and bounce for one week, the highs and the lows. Image
Read 6 tweets
๐ŸงตSmartkarma #macro #threadoftheday

Bank Watch โ€“ Deutsche, Deustche Alles Ist Vorbei
โ€” Andreas Steno @AndreasSteno

Why is Deutsche Bank suddenly selling off violently again without a trigger?

Could the FIMA-repo usage be a hint that a European entity needs USDs?

Read 6 tweets

Related hashtags

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!