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DoubleLine founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents:

Just Markets 2022 - I Feel Young Again

Today at 1:15pm PT, register here:…

#macro #markets #stocks #FX #bonds #commodities #rates #inflation #Fed #QE #bitcoin

Live recap thread⬇️
Jeffrey Gundlach: 2021 might end up running 7% year on the CPI

#inflation #QE #Powell #fed #hikes #rates
Jeffrey Gundlach: Low interest rates coupled with inflation generating negative interest rate.

#JustMarkets2022 #CPI #QE #Fed
Read 48 tweets
I have been in crypto since 2018 and I will list what's wrong with #crypto in #macro sense and how to fix them in this thread to start a decent, honest conversation. I wish to offend none. Here I go!
#1 Crypto is a hedge against #wallstreet #china - false. If #FED or #Xi tinkers with their toys, #crypto hurts bad! Crypto is massively dependent on #Hedgefunds and Wall Street & Chinese actions. So this is a fail for crypto's primary object -- freedom!
#2 BTC is controlled by big money and $USDT - as long as BTC maxis are in charge and $USDT is the safe refuge, crypto is broken! Crypto fails the second objective -- decentralization from monopolistic actions.
Read 6 tweets

Hey, my favorite $BTC "Analyst" just educated me that higher 10Y yields will drive #BTC up.

Now Yield are even breaking out but $BTC is down?

I told you before, these guys are absolutely clueless about #Macro.

🧵Thread 👇 Image
First, technically speaking, as shown in the previous tweet, correlations change over time and are not consistent. Just because some guys hold two chart patterns next to each other has nothing to do with long-term correlations. Correlations can change rapidly.
Second, correlation is not causation. Yields do not drive BTC, macro factors drive yields AND BTC. Yield and BTC moves are a RESULT.
After March 2020 monetary and fiscal policy stimulated everything. This means: risk on. Sell LT bonds (yields up), buy risky tech and crypto etc
Read 9 tweets
#PhotoRetrospective2021 April.
April brought lots of #Macro subjects to shoot.
1. Carolina Satyr, Hermeuptychia sosybius
2.False Underwing Allotria elonympha
3. Two-lined Spittlebug, Prosapia bicincta
4. Grasshopper Nymph

1. Grass-like Mantis, Thesprotia graminis
2. Speckled Sharpshooter, Paraulacizes irrorata
3&4 Green Horse Fly, Chlorotabanus crepuscularis
Another shot of the Sharpshooter with a leafhopper friend.
Read 5 tweets
If you traded 1 contract per 100K, futures on average fluctuate 20-30 points per day, that’s 1% move on equity. #ES_F
If 1% is your stop loss acct equity per trade, how much of a buffer do you need for entries after a multi session move down. #ES_F or volatility in general will kick off most stop losses for most accts.
The session starts at Euro open 2am NYC time not 9:30 .. #ES_F
Read 17 tweets
Today's #PhotoRetrospective2021 is for the month of March. March brought an abundance of #flowers to South #Georgia.

March also brought some really interesting tree textures to my lens.

Read 6 tweets
1/ Here's my 2022 and beyond #investing outlook (mostly covering #stocks) and general thoughts on the #macro backdrop, #markets, #valuations and #risk. Lot's of good analysis is publicly available, so will try to keep this brief and different.

"Navigating the Low Tide" Image
2/ Investing 101 Image
3/ Investing 201? Image
Read 47 tweets
#Bitcoin explained (1/7)

In this episode we focus on Head & Shoulder patterns

🔹#BTC had a inverse H&S breakout on 02/11/21 that lead to a new ATH
🔹when the Cringe hit ATH, #BTC topped, dumped to 1st target $54k and bounced 10% ✔️ Image
#Bitcoin explained (2/7)

🔹at $58,3k I warned that #BTC isn't safe below horizontal key level & former ATH (being tested as resistance), wait for new signal and TP✔️
🔹#BTC rejected & dumped (right shoulder of H&S) followed instant breakout and -30% retest key fib $42k Image
#Bitcoin explained (3/7)

🔹exactly 2months later #BTC actually retested the #HTF breakout of the gigantic inverse H&S
->obviously strong bounce
🔹#BTC also closed above $46k (zoomed in broadening descending wedge support) shared this as an entry which is 10% up now ✔️ ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (1) | Latest data confirmed that growth will accelerate in 4Q as the latest wave of Covid-19 reached a peak in mid-Sep.
*Oct. figures suggest that households started using accumulated excess savings (since Feb. 2020).
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (2) | Hurricane Ida hit the U.S. in late Aug./beginning of Sep. and affected activity in 3Q.
*Therefore, a positive normalization is expected in 4Q as suggested by the rebound in Industrial Production (especially the Mining component).
*Chart from Bloomberg ⬇
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (3) | Supply chain disruptions have eased a bit since the beginning of 4Q.
*On Tuesday, President Joe Biden said that bottlenecks in the U.S. supply chain are seeing relief.
*It was coherent with the recent retracement of Bloomberg "Supply Constraint Indicator".
Read 5 tweets
🇨🇳 #China #Macro Update (1) | Economic data point to a slowdown and even a contraction in several sectors in November.
*Restrictions linked to #Covid_19 affected activity (same as August) as suggested by Airportia data.
🇨🇳 #China #Macro Update (2) | On a YoY basis, the expected slowdown in Nov. could be amplified by a calendar effect given that October figures were artificially boosted by one more business day (compared to Oct. 2020).
🇨🇳 #China #Macro Update (3) | On the positive side, over the quarter, the bottom is probably behind us as the latest #Covid_19 wave seems to be under control.
Read 7 tweets
Thread 1/8 With #China so topical, I often say people dont see the wood for the trees...or more appropriately, they fail to read the 'tea leaves'. I have written about China quite a bit on my blog and in this thread, I will highlight the articles as well as more recent content
Thread 2/8 This piece from last year highlighted not only #China's role in the world but also some interesting learnings from an investor trip I took there a few years back.…
Thread 3/8 It highlighted some of the key cultural nuances necessary when considering #China as an investment destination. The #Chinese approach to regulation was a key theme.
Read 9 tweets
Como siempre deliciosa la lectura memo H Marks, en este caso sobre el problema de la inflación. Marks incluye en el análisis la importancia expectativas agentes económicos, un aspecto fundamental ya teorizado por Mises/Rothbard.
Siempre hay un decalaje entre la multiplicación política de la oferta monetaria, y su reflejo en los precios. Mises lo analiza con la hiperinflación alemana de 1923 que de facto se empieza a labrar durante la IGM y el abandono del Patrón Oro. #moneda #historia
El covid ha generado una situación similar a la de la Alemania IGM: una ducha escocesa donde coexisten dos fuerzas: (a) incremento M por parte BC: (b) expectativas deflacionistas agentes económicos (debido proceso empobrecimiento que ha supuesto la pandemia). #inflación
Read 6 tweets
1/ My top three takeaways from Howard Marks' latest memo "Thinking About Macro".

Thread below🧵👇

#howardmarks #valueinvesting #macro Image
2/ Most economic forecasters have lousy track records, so why trust them?

Time and attention is best spent elsewhere.

#economy #Economist Image
3/ Prices are mostly physiological elements reflected in reality.

Perceived increased demand can drive prices up, and vice versa.

Perception is not always reality.

#stockmarket Image
Read 5 tweets
Thanks to @steve_sedgwick & @cnbcKaren for having me on #CNBC #SquawkBox this AM.

What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!

I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE
Are people in denial or is the #centralbank money flood just drowning all the signals?
#Commodities, #freight, #carbon - and a whole lot besides - sure do cost a lot more, these days.
Read 14 tweets
The dollar is always the KEY macro variable.

When it moves, everything moves. If the dollar rises sharply back to the middle of the range, it kills the inflation narrative for now.

The real guts of the inflation debate is more likely next year's story.
It is normal to see inflation fears immediately after recessions but they tend to ease sharply (or entirely reverse, as do bond yields).
And The Fed always cuts again (for 2 years) after the recession as stimulus and re-bound effects wear off...
Read 11 tweets
Here’s some clarity re #KR1’s share register:

Nominee co’s are set up by major brokers/custodians/etc. to aggregate individual sharehldgs, both large & in reality, Vidacos does NOT own a 25.5% stake.

And no, #WarrenBuffett does NOT have a direct/indirect hldg in KR1!
This nominee system does NOT absolve individual/inst’l investors of req’t to report major 3%+ stakes & any significant chg in hldgs...which you can track via #KR1 RNS:…

Ideally, KR1 wd also break out these stakes (on a look-through) basis for investors...
And I highlighted major #KR1 stakes in my Nov post:…

Largest hldg belongs to KR1 team itself (& Smaller Co Capital)...tht’s 15%+ in KR1’s fully diluted share capital.

That does NOT inc. 80% of their 2020 bonus to be granted in shares...

Read 15 tweets
Short thread on #macro drivers #bitcoin & #crypto are facing right now. $BTC $ETH

While #tether not immediately being wound up now, Yellen speaking negatively or Square buying definitely impacted price this week, there is a larger picture we should bear in mind & watch closely:
Due to other news in cryptoland, the larger macro picture (which, IMO was and is the main driver of #bitcoin since March 2020) has been a bit under the radar.

There are several future uses of the #bitcoin #blockchain, but it's current main use is vaccuuming up USD the Fed prints
$BTC is perfect for it. It is digital, fast (in comparison to Gold), very hypable and it has absolutely no intrinsic value yet without the speculation around it. So when the Fed started printing in response to #COVID, in order to prevent a new Great Depression, it rallied.
Read 13 tweets
In preparation for my slot on #SquawkBox yesterday, I sent the guys a few slides as a synopsis of my last, detailed subscriber report for the discussion.

I called it #Pyromania. Feel free to take a look


#macro #bonds #commodities #dollar #inflation #centralbanks #fiscal
Is it possible to overkill an act of overkill? #JeromePowell & #JanetYellen seem set to let us find out.

Not that they're alone in their folly, of course. The #ECB is outodoing them handsomely, while the #bankofengland is breaking records stretching back to its founding, 327 years ago.
Read 10 tweets
The latest Incrementum Chart book; "The dawning of a golden decade" is, as per usual, full of insightful illustrations...Here are a few that stood out to me...
#GlobalTrends #Macro #Stagflation #Inflation #LessonsFromHistory #Investing #Gold (1/3) #US fundamentals...#Commodities ImageImageImageImage
2/3 #Gold price performance in different major currencies...Gold bull/bear markets the long view...Gold vs local stock market performance 2020...#USD index trends, the long view...#Macro #GlobalTrends #Investing ImageImageImageImage
3/3 Purchasing power of main currencies valued in #gold since 1971...Look beyond the last 4 decades for what lies ahead...Historical asset class performance during Stagflationary periods...#GlobalTrends #Macro #Investing #ThePathAhead ImageImageImage
Read 3 tweets
The CBO has dropped the '2020 long-term budget outlook' - It's not… #US #USeconomy #Debt #FiscalMonetaryMelt #Macro #Risk Some take aways...(1/5)
2/5 #US federal #deficits, #debt, spending & revenues...#Macro #Risk ImageImageImageImage
3/5 #US looking for some revenues...#tax bracket creep...An attempt at some humour; modelling potential cuts to deficit to keep debt equal to 100% of GDP...Consequences of rising #debt & some historic context...#Deficits 2020-2030...#Macro #Risk ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
'Pulling #consumption forward' is an unhelpful euphemism for 'engaging in #capital consumption': more graphically, 'writing cheques the people can't cash'.
Self-sustaining #growth requires coherence between consumption & production not just today, but over time.
1/x #centralbanks
That latter is difficult enough to achieve without #centralbankers & policy-makers in general trying to impose their own vision of the balance (one always narrowly biased to the present) on a system composed of billions of interacting needs & preferences.
The unavoidable (Rumsfeldian) uncertainty -as well as the calculable risks- is made much greater when every fluctuation today -itself a direct result of IN-coherence, largely inflicted from above- is greeted with yet another blunt-force trauma assault on the capital structure
Read 9 tweets
The Tower of Basel dropped the 'Quarterly Review: International banking & financial market developments' so I loaded up on espresso & blueberries & dove in2 this trove of soothing CB lingo mixed with some Sufi wisdom & colourful illlus:… Some takeaways 1/5
2/5 Riddle me this; "Stock markets rebound unevenly amid downgraded earnings expectations." & "Corp #credit spreads tighten despite indications of persistently high credit #risk" & "funding costs for #EM sovs drop despite weak pf inflows." ImageImageImageImage
3/5 Heads up: "Firms desired leverage can be excessive if companies do not account for all financial distress costs..." "Share buybacks rose just as valuations began to rise..." & "#Credit #risk rose with leverage but it only revealed itself during market stress..." ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
.#ConsumerPriceIndex data for the month of August revealed further recovery - like a lot of #macro data in recent months: core #CPI (excluding volatile food and #energy components) came in at 0.4% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year.
Overall, we think 2020’s broadly #deflationary influences may well lead to somewhat higher rates of #inflation by mid-2021, yet importantly, we do not expect this to reach excessive levels.
Those fearing increasingly greater risks of high #inflation stemming from #crisis rescue measures are misguided, in our view, and underestimate the continued secular headwinds to excessive #price increases…
Read 5 tweets
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @cnbcKaren for having me on the show this morning.

Here's a short thread of the notes - entitled, "Time to Get Real?" - which I put together in preparation.
They should hopefully be self-explanatory:-

#SquawkBox #CNBC #macro #equities #commodities
You've heard it here before: pay out or pay down is a big part of the #inflation equation:-
Yes, there's a "V" - or at least a flipped square root sign - underway, but will it extend far enough & fast enough?
Read 11 tweets

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