Here we will look at the use of Automation, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in the Discovery of new drugs.
1/ Introduction:
It can take up to 10 years to develop a new drug. A majority of that time is spent in the lab testing targets and ideas. Its the process of sorting through thousands of potential targets to find the one that is worth advancing.
2/ It can cost a ton of money to develop a drug. The statistics show that it can cost upward of $2.5 billion to bring a new drug all the way to commercial. The high level of failure and high costs of testing and discovery is one space where technology can really help.
3/ It can improve the success rate. Computers can use databases and algorithms to scan thousands of potential targets to pick just a handful of targets that will have the highest chance of success. This can save a huge amount of time where trial and error would have been used.
4/ We are entering an era of new drug discovery that uses AI and ML to make it faster, more cost effective and more successful. The use of automation, AI, and ML can reduce the time and costs while improving the rate of success for new drug discovery.
5/ Its all about data:
Its all about collecting, organizing and using data to discover new targets
6/ - Genetic Data
Genetic data can predict what genes may drive a disease. It may also predict the variation of genes across the population and how they can affect that disease.
7/ Genetic data can help identify which patients will react best to specific treatments and which patients might have adverse reactions to specific treatments. Genetics and mutations play a major role in oncology and drug discovery.
8/ - Patient Data
Collecting patient data, prior therapies, side effects, and the outcomes can help predict which patients will respond best to which therapies and which can have bad outcomes. Combined with genetic data, we can personalize medicine for each patient.
9/ - Clinical Trial Data
Clinical data can be used by AI to determine what has worked or failed before. It can come up with new ways to potentially target the same target with a different approach. AI can also predict which combinations of drug might work best for each patient.
10/ - Scientific Data
This can help direct AI where to look for new targets. You might have data where something worked, but it was too toxic or had off target effects. The AI might be able to use the combination of all the data to predict a new target.
11/ Uses of AI and ML:
The data can take tens of thousands of potential targets and screen them down to a handful of best potential candidates. This can save a lot of time and cost from using the old methods of trying each potential target to get the one that works.
12/ Even then, they often did not get the best possible candidate. With AI, companies can spend more time with screening targets before they ever move into the lab where its cost significantly more.
13/ Computers can be used with software to build models used in drug discovery. There are companies like $SDGR and $RLAY using modeling software to predict how proteins and enzymes behave and move.
14/ They use this to design new drugs that target the mutated proteins that drive cancer growth. They can develop targeted therapies that take on these genetic mutations in cancer.
15/ Companies like $EXAI are using ML to take patient genetic information and develop better combinations of already existing drugs to improve outcomes. They showed that using ML could improve the outcomes of patients by up to 30%.
16/ They also use AI to help screen genetic data to find valid targets for new therapies.
17/ Another use of modeling in drug discovery is predicting drug metabolism. There are certain drugs that can be toxic when metabolized. Knowing which ones will have toxicity use to be done by trial and error.
18/ Now there is software that can predict which compounds might end up being toxic. This is another example where AI can help reduce a lot of the failure and cost in drug discovery.
19/ Automation:
Automation of the Lab brings many benefits from increasing scale of testing, reducing costs, saving time and reducing error rates.
20/ Companies like $BLI are developing machines that can automate many of the tedious and time consuming tasks in the lab. They build machines around sorting and selecting cells.
21/ These machines can make a hybridoma for monoclonal antibodies at 10x the scale and with far higher success in 90% less time. This is an example of how automation is changing drug discovery.
22/ Companies like $RXRX are using robots to conduct millions of experiments per week and recording all the data into a super computer.
23/ That super computer can then use AI to predict drugs targets for clinical development. It can screen known chemical entities for new uses or even predict new targets to be explored.
24/ Conclusion:
Using automation, AI and ML can allow companies to build a platform of technology that can lower costs and improve success. It enables companies to do more with less. They can build a lab with a few highly skill individuals that can drive innovation.
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I don't think I have changed anything this week. I came close today to nibbling one of my stocks that got hit today for no reason, but waited. I have no plans of selling anything this year as my taxes are closed out for 2021.
All * mean my top 3 the extras are subject to trading sale later. I bought a ton of extra companies down here so I have more to sell for profits on the way back up.
My cash is at 25.95% My lowest cash position since the Spring of 2020.
Everyone has to develop their own style. You have to go with what works for you. No one person's style is right for everyone. Different people can have different styles that work.
I would never criticize anyone for using a different style from me. Just because mine is different from your doesn't make it wrong. I just use a different style.
I buy into my stock each 10% to 15% they pull back. Then I fade them on the way back up each 20% they run. For the index, I use 10% as its not as big of a mover as many individual stocks. I always keep a minimum position as a core investment.
The stock has been knocked down 80% from its highs off of the short reports. I did my own research, and I don't find any credibility to those claims by the shorts.
1/ The company looks cheaply valued at only $1.3 billion market cap with over $123 million in projected 2022 revenues and $197 cash on the books.
2/ Berkley Lights makes machines that automate and simply the lab process. They have 3 machines with the Beacon, the Lighting and the Culture Station. The main machine is the Beacon which uses chip built with thousands of pens.
I have 2 themes that are overweight. I had a few names in there I was debating. I finally made my decisions on the synthetic biology and genomics spaces for the companies that would go.
For synthetic biology, I think it has to be $CDXS. Its an enzyme company that has a role in synbio, but its not as much play on this space as the other names. I am not sure how big the revenues are for enzymes. It might be a small business.
I would keep $DNA, $TWST, $BLI and $AMRS. I set my bid to sell all my $CDXS with a go to complete order at a price I would be happy with. I don't think there is a rush. I would even add some if it really sold off from here.
I was going to do a Bio Chem course for SynBio. It seemed right to go along with my Mastery of Genetics, Immunology and Oncology. That is when I realized my chem and organic chem was rusty. Here is my list.
I have always been a stock picker. I have always valued my skills at picking the best companies out of a long list of companies. I am going to show you how I do it.
1/ If you take any index, a good investor can go over the companies in that index and pick out the top 10 or so that are the best. If you don't have the time, then holding an index is great. If you do have the time, you can outperform any index by picking the best of the best.
2/ I am going to use the $ARKG since its the most popular biotech fund. I love and respect these folks who run this fund. I think they are great people. I also think I could go over their 50 or so holdings and extract the top 10 that I think will outperform over the next decade.