Thread by @alexhallhall

Though I may have resigned from the Foreign Office, rumours of my demise as a diplomat are greatly exaggerated. Today I report as the new "Ambassador at Large" to the Court of St James: my first report is the traditional "First Impressions" despatch, titled "Yule Britannia"🧵

SUMMARY: The UK today is far removed from the "Cool Britannia" of a decade ago. Buffeted by crises and scandals, many self-inflicted, trust in the government is plummeting, even as the costs of Brexit become more apparent, and covid takes its toll on a fatigued and divided nation

ECONOMY: This year saw supply chain problems, empty grocery shelves, worker shortages, soaring fuel prices, pigs culled and crops unpicked. While covid played its part, and other countries faced problems, Brexit magnified the impact in UK, though the Government remains in denial.

The govt can claim success in securing a few new trade deals - but not nearly enough to offset the decline in EU trade. The UK-US deal is on the backburner, while US steel tariffs remain on the UK, some say as a warning to the UK over the NIP, though they were lifted on the EU.

Small businesses have been worst affected by Brexit. Troublingly many are reported to be completely unprepared for the new custom procedures due to come into effect on Jan 1st - which many in the govt-supporting tabloid media misleadingly continue to blame as "EU red tape"

Despite constant Govt efforts to downplay the impact of Brexit, the Govt's own fiscal watchdog, the Office of Budget Responsibility, has declared that the impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse in the long run compared to the covid pandemic, now in a deadly 4th wave.

SECURITY: On 16 March the UK released its "Integrated Review" of the UK’s Defence, Security, Development and Foreign Policy. Far-reaching and ambitious, it envisions an unshackled "Global Britain", engaged in Asia, harnessing technology to combat modern threats, a force for good.

Described by this correspondent in an earlier tweet as a "doughnut" strategy - superficially attractive, saying many good things, but with a hole in the middle where engaging with the EU should be. And further hollowed out by aid, diplomatic and military budget cuts.

The UK's declining impact exemplified by its inability to influence the US's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. The flaws in its own evacuation efforts were exposed by a Foreign Office Whistleblower, while the then For Sec Raab remained on holiday. Russian crisis brewing.

DOMESTIC POLICY: Govt has made little to no progress on its much vaunted "levelling up" agenda, while forging ahead with a regressive set of policies designed to appeal to its hardest wing: the most obvious of which is tougher immigration rules, against surging migrant tragedy.

Govt also introducing measures to limit public protests, circumscribe judicial review, reject rulings it doesn't like, limit protests, amend the Human Rights Act, and force EU nationals, even those living here for decades, who do not yet have settled status to reapply to stay.

Meanwhile, the government has faced a series of scandals in the last few weeks, the worst of which included mishandling the Owen Patterson affair, and denying Christmas parties took place last year during covid lockdowns, insulting the many 1000s who lost loved ones at that time.

It is not that the sins themselves were so grievous in themselves (indeed, many Brits may have discreetly breached a rule or two in the past year). It is the PM's arrogant dismissal of concerns, blatant breach of the rules, and failure to even acknowledge any mistake which grate

This perception of "One rule for Them, One Rule for Us" was probably what led to the devastating election loss in N Shropshire, a safe Tory seat for almost 200 years. There is now a palpable sense that the tide has turned against the govt, and that the PM is on borrowed time.

Rumours swirl of potential leadership challenges to the PM; even his allies say he needs to get a grip. Many suspect his Brexit Envoy David Frost stepped down to distance himself from a failing govt. His replacement on EU matters, Liz Truss, is ambitiously positioning herself.

Above it all remains the Queen, a widely loved and respected figure, whose dignified presence at the funeral of her husband was perhaps the saddest image of the year, reflecting the losses of so many, but also providing the strongest contrast with the behaviour of the PM

As we look to 2022, the question for this government is whether it truly will "heed the message" of the N Shropshire voters, and be able to adapt course, or whether it will limp on, doubling down in its claims that Brexit is a success, and pandering ever more to its right wing.

Early signs are not promising. Truss has continued the tough rhetoric of invoking Art 16. Govt is still announcing gimmicks such as allowing champagne to be sold in pints. The govt has opted out of tough decisions on covid, despite the risk of overwhelming NHS.

And for the PM personally - will he continue to be the Lord of Misrule? Or will he sober up, literally and metaphorically, drop the wine and cheese, jokes and quips, which no longer amuse; stop being the Jester, and start being the Statesman? England can only wait and hope.

May I wish you all a joyous Christmas and festive season. Stay safe, stay well. I remain your ever humble and faithful servant....etc etc etc.

I'm going to add here, on reflection, and in fairness, recognition of a commendable effort on COP, impressive chairing by Alok Sharma, pretty good G7, and a genuinely impressive initial covid vaccine rollout. Follow through tbd.