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Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
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26 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
🇬🇧 The research group at Oxford who compared myocarditis rates after covid to after the vax (nature.com/articles/s4159…) have just released a new analysis:
In males 16-39,
Myocarditis more common after Pfizer dose 2 & 3
&
Moderna dose 2 than after infection medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
I'm already personally aware of 5 cases of post-booster myo in males 16-24; remember, this @NEJM study on boosters by age, the "rate of severe disease in the youngest age groups (16-39) was v low ...not enough cases to estimate the rate ratio reliably" nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Current college booster mandates do not seem to have the best interests of the students, especially the male students, at heart. We need better data on the risks and benefits of boosters in the <40 age group.
Edit: The risk of myocarditis in this demographic after Moderna dose ONE also appears to exceed the risk seen after infection. The same goes for the second dose of AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1). I should have included that in the first tweet.

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More from @TracyBethHoeg

Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
22 Dec
Danish 🇩🇰 data via @KT_Baek & @SSI_dk
>1/3 of all cases now omicron
No difference in case rates between vax (🔵) & unvax (🟡) in age group w/the most omicron
Prev infection (🔴) still gives some protection
So can we expect vax to protect others? 1/5
covid19danmark.dk/#gennembrudsin…
Based on data above from omicron (no diff in infection risk vax vs unvax) & from delta in @TheLancetInfDis (no significant difference in transm once infected between vax & unvax), it seems:

No, the vax can not be relied on to protect others (2/5)

But, the vaccines still appears effective against severe disease. Here are Danish data on ICU admission by vaccination status
(🟡) unvaccinated
(🔵) 2 or 3 doses
So it appears your vax protects you, not others
(3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
21 Dec
I'm being asked to comment on @joerogan's captivating interview of @P_McCulloughMD bc he mentioned our myocarditis study 3 times, 1 here👇. In honor of Dr McCullough saying "the truth is kryptonite" (I love that quote), I wanted to clear up a few things
🧵
1. We found that boys 12-17 w/o medical comorbidities have a risk of myo following vax #2 that exceeds their *120-day* hospitalization risk from covid even at times of high disease prevalence.
The way Dr. McCullough worded it sound like it was overall risk of hospitalization.
2. We identified 257 myocarditis cases in this age group in VAERS up through June 18th, not "thousands".
3. He was spot on about the 86% hospitalization rate
Read 8 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
7 Dec
🇩🇪Unique, important study out of Germany:

For children without comorbidities
Chance of
Death/COVID infection
ages 5-17 = 0/7 million

Hospitalization/infection
ages 5-11 = 1/1176
ages 12-17= 1/415

ICU admission/infection
5-11 = 1/50,000
12-17=1/9091

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
This puts into perspective why, for this demographic, vaccination needs to be incredibly safe in order to be ethical.

It is hard to understand why decisions like that of Finland (and now Norway) to wait for more safety data before recommending vaccination of 5-11 year olds who aren't high risk would be controversial

Read 6 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
1 Dec
The highest rate of post-Pfizer vax myocarditis reported thus far: 1/2700 in 12-17 yo males after vax dose 2.
Considering covid hosp rate after dose 1 or after infection expected to be much lower than this in healthy 12-17 yos, argues against dose 2 for boys (& against mandates)
Data on (almost exclusively) Pfizer dose 1 vs dose 2 in people <30.

Essentially no difference in hospitalization rates after 1 and 2 doses; both around 90% effective

Data on previously infected having 90% lower odds of severe disease

Read 4 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
23 Nov
Recent data from the UK's @ONS indicating those previously infected are less likely to test + for covid than those w/2 doses mRNA vax >90 days ago.
I wish they had data for hospitalizations, but this is important info we should expect from the @CDCgov ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Understanding natural immunity seems especially important for vax policy in kids given low risk of severe disease, the myocarditis risk & high percentage of people (56.2% in California, 80.36% in Arizona, for example) having previously been infected 👇
covidestim.org
Myocarditis rates in boys 12-17 post Pfizer now greater than 1/5000 in Ontario & FDA's Optum database indicates 1/5000-1/5600 for boys 12-17.(fda.gov/media/153447/d…)
Read 6 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
3 Nov
"Should our youth be vaccinated? Experts say no - not necessarily" From the major Danish newspaper @politiken w/special focus on those <18. The crazy Danes are once again not censoring open scientific discussion. politiken.dk/forbrugogliv/s…
"If we don't use the principal of first and foremost vaccinating for an individual's sake, we risk children potentially experiencing a serious rare side effect for society's sake" Lone Graff Stensballe, professor in pediatric vaccinology infectious disease epidemiology.
She goes on to say, she's not against vaccinating children, but doesn't understand the strong pressure.

My addition to this would be we don't have the same safety data on this vax as we do on other routine childhood vaccines. We are also aware of 1 serious rare side effect.
Read 7 tweets

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