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Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
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7 Dec, 6 tweets, 3 min read
🇩🇪Unique, important study out of Germany:

For children without comorbidities
Chance of
Death/COVID infection
ages 5-17 = 0/7 million

Hospitalization/infection
ages 5-11 = 1/1176
ages 12-17= 1/415

ICU admission/infection
5-11 = 1/50,000
12-17=1/9091

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
This puts into perspective why, for this demographic, vaccination needs to be incredibly safe in order to be ethical.

It is hard to understand why decisions like that of Finland (and now Norway) to wait for more safety data before recommending vaccination of 5-11 year olds who aren't high risk would be controversial

Now, tell me how much this group of children will benefit from vaccination if they have already been infected....
& I stand by what I said on June 10th about vax safety in children. @Twitter censored me for saying it & that got my tweet on @TuckerCarlson and yet, we knew even then how incredibly safe these vaccines would need to be for children without comorbidities.
To eliminate incidental hospitalizations "counted" as COVID-19, the rate I calculate of children 12-17 requiring medical intervention ("therapy") for COVID-19 in the hospital was

1/2381 in children without medical comorbidities
1/678 for children with medical comorbidities.

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More from @TracyBethHoeg

Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
1 Dec
The highest rate of post-Pfizer vax myocarditis reported thus far: 1/2700 in 12-17 yo males after vax dose 2.
Considering covid hosp rate after dose 1 or after infection expected to be much lower than this in healthy 12-17 yos, argues against dose 2 for boys (& against mandates)
Data on (almost exclusively) Pfizer dose 1 vs dose 2 in people <30.

Essentially no difference in hospitalization rates after 1 and 2 doses; both around 90% effective

Data on previously infected having 90% lower odds of severe disease

Read 4 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
23 Nov
Recent data from the UK's @ONS indicating those previously infected are less likely to test + for covid than those w/2 doses mRNA vax >90 days ago.
I wish they had data for hospitalizations, but this is important info we should expect from the @CDCgov ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Understanding natural immunity seems especially important for vax policy in kids given low risk of severe disease, the myocarditis risk & high percentage of people (56.2% in California, 80.36% in Arizona, for example) having previously been infected 👇
covidestim.org
Myocarditis rates in boys 12-17 post Pfizer now greater than 1/5000 in Ontario & FDA's Optum database indicates 1/5000-1/5600 for boys 12-17.(fda.gov/media/153447/d…)
Read 6 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
3 Nov
"Should our youth be vaccinated? Experts say no - not necessarily" From the major Danish newspaper @politiken w/special focus on those <18. The crazy Danes are once again not censoring open scientific discussion. politiken.dk/forbrugogliv/s…
"If we don't use the principal of first and foremost vaccinating for an individual's sake, we risk children potentially experiencing a serious rare side effect for society's sake" Lone Graff Stensballe, professor in pediatric vaccinology infectious disease epidemiology.
She goes on to say, she's not against vaccinating children, but doesn't understand the strong pressure.

My addition to this would be we don't have the same safety data on this vax as we do on other routine childhood vaccines. We are also aware of 1 serious rare side effect.
Read 7 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
21 Oct
Yes👇. @FLSurgeonGen is spot on & has been asking me & certainly many others to send data on masking kids in schools- he wants the truth. We don't have good data showing they prevent COVID spread & certainly have downsides for kids. 🧵
( And OMG @GovRonDeSantis mentioned me?😯)
What downsides?
Ask the kids. Outstanding radio journalism here by @NPR highlighting how *they* feel about masks.

They describe: "suffocating", can't see when their glasses fog, can't see other kids smile. And "I don't want to get my parents sick" 😢npr.org/2021/10/20/104…
I've talked about the lack of data for masking kids in school before. We have existing data showing child mask mandates don't do much if anything in terms of prevention of COVID spread

Read 8 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
14 Oct
Nice to hear @drsanjaygupta & @joerogan debate & respectfully disagree about multiple topics. They spent a fair bit of time discussing our pre-print (medrxiv.org/content/10.110…) on post-vaccination myocarditis in boys. I want to clarify a few things cnn.com/2021/10/13/hea…
First, Joe does say it correctly once, but our study compared the risk we identified via VAERS of post-vaccination myocarditis (1/6200 in 12-15 yo boys and 1/10,600 in 16-17 yo boys) to the risk of hospitalization over the next *4 months* and *not overall* from COVID-19.
We did find that, even at times of high disease prevalence, that boys 12-17 without medical comorbidities were more likely to have post vax myocarditis after dose 2 than be hospitalized for COVID (over a 120-day period)
Read 11 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
12 Oct
The Nordic data on the frequency of myocarditis after dose 2 of Moderna (Spikevax) in 18-29 year old men have been released: 1/4,800.
For Pfizer, it's 1/25,000.
fhi.no/nyheter/2021/m…
>5x difference, but see data from Ontario below (1/5)
Ontario rate is now 1/5600 (mostly Pfizer) in boys 12-17
My ?: Is some of the increase in frequency simply due to awareness of condition? (in addition to increased Moderna use?) 2/5
- Israel rate from NEJM 1/6600 for 16-19 yo (Pfizer) nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
(For ref our VAERS pre-print: 1/6200 in 12-15 yo males, 1/10,600 in 16-17 yo (Pfizer))

Reports taken together point to ⬆️ rate in younger boys & after Moderna & ⬆️ awareness of this condition 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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