I asked an AI app to render an image based on the input ”bitcoin 2022” to give me some hints of what’s in store for the next year. It gave me this.
What does it look like?
Dogecoin? A bear? A honeybadger that don’t care?
This is ”Ethereum 2022”
I see the Ethereum logo hovering over a skyscraper… or a money lego DeFi city. But I also see a big rift in it. Does this mean there will be a chainsplit upon the Merge after all (the PoW => PoS hardfork)?
This is ”Solana 2022”
I see something very impressive. A breathtaking monument of the future. But it also looks inherently unstable, as if it could crack at any moment under the sheer load the structure puts on itself. It doesn’t look to have a very reliable baselayer.
”AVAX 2022”
I see a boat—a stranded yacht as the tide went out?
The architecture looks quite bold and advanced, but it doesn’t look like it’s falling apart nevertheless. It looks more like ”Wow, do you really think we could build things like that?” than a city in mayhem.
This is an important chart that I think everyone should know about.
In 2017, BTC topped on Dec 16, but alts still kept going for some time. ETH *doubled* in price between Dec 16 - Jan 13 ($700-$1,400) when BTC was going down. Crypto market cap peaked on Jan 7, not Dec 16.
It took almost a year until the crypto market cap overall deflated as much as bitcoin. Although at that point, the losses per coin were generally much larger than for bitcoin (-80% to -99%).
Lesson: if you're trading alts, you won't necessarily know it's over 'til it's over.
Is it different these days? Maybe. Data suggests it isn't. BTC's 1st top ($64k) happened in April but the overall market kept going until May. ETH once again doubled ($2.2k-$4.4k) in that time.
I don’t know who needs to hear this but something having a lower gas cost does not immediately mean that once that thing gets adopted, transaction fees will be lower
Gas cost can go down but gas price can go up
🤷♂️
I think if all Ethereum activity got squished into a single rollup L2, it would probably be a mistake to assume transaction fees would go down. ”Cost” would go down, but fees would probably trend back up again
Only with multiple rollups do you have a very good chance of lowering the fees for the longterm, atleast for certain transactions
This comes from that you segregate the bidding contest for block space into separate mempools essentially.
I own this NFT that gives you a free dinner with the Chief Protocol Architect of $AVAX, @kevinsekniqi.
It's currently on the X-chain. I want to transfer it to the C-chain if there are any good UIs for people to place bids/take offers for NFTs there? Any suggestions?
What's cool about this NFT is that you don't need to buy it just because you want to eat dinner with @kevinsekniqi. You can buy it because you expect the demand (and therefore the value) of a dinner with @kevinsekniqi will be higher in the future. It's basically a social token!
Side-question: Am I personally turning this NFT into a security right now by giving you an expectation of profit? @kevinsekniqi issued it and transferred it for free and didn't create any expectations when he issued it. But am I myself committing a crime by marketing it as such?
Technically it’s not built yet and it’s a USD-denominated bond (not a bitcoin-denominated bond) but the loan is used to buy bitcoin and invest in/fund Bitcoin City
I don’t know what I think about the whole authoritarianish gov building a honey pot of crypto wealthy in a country with one of the highest murder rates on the planet but I do love volcanoes and volcano-powered cities & the Sovereign Individual touch where govs compete for people