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29 Dec, 31 tweets, 5 min read
I'll start writing some 2022 predictions in this thread, will see what I come up with before the year end 👇

Will be interesting to see next year what I was most wrong about
1. Optimistic rollups will take off, but ZK rollups won't really.
2. Layer 2 tokens will surpass $50bn in total market cap.
3. Ethereum (ETH) won't flip bitcoin (BTC).
4. But no Ethereum killer (SOL, AVAX, LUNA, ADA etc.) will flip ETH either.
5. Taproot won't amass more than 20% adoption.
6. DeFi will continue to not happen on Bitcoin.
7. LN adoption will be underwhelming. We won't surpass 6000 BTC in public LN channels.
8. Stablecoins won't migrate back to BTC. USDT adoption on LN won't get traction.
9. Polygon's ZK rollup tech acquisitions won't go anywhere.
10. People will find new exciting use cases for NFTs. It turns out, jpegs was just the first iteration.
11. There will be a lot more thots in crypto. Related to the above.
12. For Ethereum-based rollups, it will look like they will solve fees & congestion in the beginning, but before the year has come to an end signs of problematic clogging will be visible again.
13. "Data availability (DA)" will be the big theme for 2022. Chains that specialize in it will get traction. Some rollups will choose to bridge to Ethereum, but use other solutions as the DA layer.
14. The Rainbow model for bitcoin will stay intact.

(And I mean actually stay intact, not stay intact because I make up new numbers).
15. We will have the technology ready for low-fee payments in highly private dollar synthetics with some amount of decentralization and censorship resistance to them. But they won't yet become very commonplace in darknet markets in 2022.
16. Yes, the Merge will happen and it will be successful. There may be some resistance from PoW miners, but any remaining PoW-chainsplit of Ethereum will swiftly fall into irrelevance. No catastrophic attacks on ETH2 PoS occur.
17. There will be no new Bitcoin softfork upgrade in 2022.
18. There will be new signs of institutional bitcoin adoption. A very large pension fund investment or something along those lines--something that kickstarts the MicroStrategy narrative again which mostly fizzled out in 2021.
19. OHM fails.
20. I would like to say ”2022 is the year of the Coordicide” but probably better to not get your hopes up. 30% chance it happens near the end of the year, more likely 2023.
21. $AVAX will join the top 10. $ADA will drop out of it.
22. Richard Heart forks BSC. It will have a $100 billion market cap but be placed at spot #202 on CoinMarketCap.
23. DeFi won’t happen there. And outside of DeFi, EVM/SC platforms have no real use case.
24. $ATOM (#30) overtakes Litecoin $LTC (#19)
25. NEAR is great but nothing will happen on it
26. This will never happen again
27. Something inbetween. No mega bear market, no supercycle.
28. My take on RGB is that it is an incomprehensible mess and my prediction for it is that it will not deliver anything at all like Ethereum in 2022.
29. After $100K failed, he said that he meant ”$100K on average this cycle”. So he will say S2F is still valid no matter the price in 2022 because the price could go to $300K in 2023 and solve the average. He will block more people than I have followers.
30. 5 of these predictions will be incorrect, but not 6. This will be the 5th incorrect prediction.

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More from @ercwl

Eric Wall Profile picture
26 Dec
I asked an AI app to render an image based on the input ”bitcoin 2022” to give me some hints of what’s in store for the next year. It gave me this.

What does it look like?

Dogecoin? A bear? A honeybadger that don’t care? Image
This is ”Ethereum 2022”

I see the Ethereum logo hovering over a skyscraper… or a money lego DeFi city. But I also see a big rift in it. Does this mean there will be a chainsplit upon the Merge after all (the PoW => PoS hardfork)? Image
This is ”Solana 2022”

I see something very impressive. A breathtaking monument of the future. But it also looks inherently unstable, as if it could crack at any moment under the sheer load the structure puts on itself. It doesn’t look to have a very reliable baselayer. Image
Read 7 tweets
Eric Wall Profile picture
22 Dec
This is an important chart that I think everyone should know about.

In 2017, BTC topped on Dec 16, but alts still kept going for some time. ETH *doubled* in price between Dec 16 - Jan 13 ($700-$1,400) when BTC was going down. Crypto market cap peaked on Jan 7, not Dec 16.
It took almost a year until the crypto market cap overall deflated as much as bitcoin. Although at that point, the losses per coin were generally much larger than for bitcoin (-80% to -99%).
Lesson: if you're trading alts, you won't necessarily know it's over 'til it's over.

Is it different these days? Maybe. Data suggests it isn't. BTC's 1st top ($64k) happened in April but the overall market kept going until May. ETH once again doubled ($2.2k-$4.4k) in that time.
Read 6 tweets
Eric Wall Profile picture
25 Nov
Swedbank—one of Sweden’s absolutely largest commercial banks—just blocked cross-border payments to a whopping 103 countries.
Handelsbanken blocked 50 countries last year and are up to 113 now.
Reason: ”as part of the work to follow updated policies regarding money laundering, terrorist financing, and financial sanctions”.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Wall Profile picture
24 Nov
I don’t know who needs to hear this but something having a lower gas cost does not immediately mean that once that thing gets adopted, transaction fees will be lower

Gas cost can go down but gas price can go up

🤷‍♂️
I think if all Ethereum activity got squished into a single rollup L2, it would probably be a mistake to assume transaction fees would go down. ”Cost” would go down, but fees would probably trend back up again
Only with multiple rollups do you have a very good chance of lowering the fees for the longterm, atleast for certain transactions

This comes from that you segregate the bidding contest for block space into separate mempools essentially.
Read 13 tweets
Eric Wall Profile picture
22 Nov
I own this NFT that gives you a free dinner with the Chief Protocol Architect of $AVAX, @kevinsekniqi.

It's currently on the X-chain. I want to transfer it to the C-chain if there are any good UIs for people to place bids/take offers for NFTs there? Any suggestions? ImageImage
What's cool about this NFT is that you don't need to buy it just because you want to eat dinner with @kevinsekniqi. You can buy it because you expect the demand (and therefore the value) of a dinner with @kevinsekniqi will be higher in the future. It's basically a social token!
Side-question: Am I personally turning this NFT into a security right now by giving you an expectation of profit? @kevinsekniqi issued it and transferred it for free and didn't create any expectations when he issued it. But am I myself committing a crime by marketing it as such?
Read 7 tweets
Eric Wall Profile picture
21 Nov
We built this city

We built this city

We build this city on bitcoin bonds Image
Technically it’s not built yet and it’s a USD-denominated bond (not a bitcoin-denominated bond) but the loan is used to buy bitcoin and invest in/fund Bitcoin City
I don’t know what I think about the whole authoritarianish gov building a honey pot of crypto wealthy in a country with one of the highest murder rates on the planet but I do love volcanoes and volcano-powered cities & the Sovereign Individual touch where govs compete for people
Read 6 tweets

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