5pm. We dress up for the Christmas Eve dinner at our in-laws’. Anorak, mittens, wool hat, two masks.

5:30pm. Antigen test for all. Negative.

5:45pm. We take the elevator. The older kid sneezes. A chill down our fucking spine.

5:55pm. Another antigen test from our secret stash
We went to 27 pharmacies to gather them. Eat or be eaten.
Negative again

6:05. We made it to the car. This time, the older one coughs.

6:07. This time, antigens, eucalyptus, ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, and an enema just in case.

He screams. He never does.

We google:
“COVID symptoms scream humor change”.
We think he might have cancer.
But no COVID, so back to the car.

6:50. We make it to the in-laws’.

6:57. We open all the windows of the house.

7:09. We start eating.

7:14. 25 degrees F

7:30. We all sneeze.
7:36. All 14 of us take a test

7:38. Great uncle Dupree (104yo) shows some resistance: “I survived WW2, WW1, and the fucking Civil War without so much fuss”

7:46. It takes 5 of us, 2 just for the head, but we finally insert the swab in the nose. Both nostrils. That’ll teach him

8:03. Dupree is still complaining about his nosebleed and something about snowflakes. Unclear if he’s talking about us or the snow coming through the windows.

8:06. We’re finishing the appetizers in Arctic sleeping bags from REI.
8:16. The entree is a roast beef smoothie. It was meant to be fully liquid so we could “eat” it with paper straws and our masks on.

The straws are breaking.
The masks are brown.
We can see the stains through the 2nd layer.
8:23. Nephew Asher claims on TikTok he’s at the Everest Base Camp. His father freezes. When he warms up, he smites him. You can cut the tension with an ice axe.

8:33. Kids cry ice cubes.

8:41. Grand uncle Dupree blows up. He tears his clothes off, runs around closing windows:

8:47. We tackle Dupree.
He escapes.
He goes to the other secret stash, the one with rifles.

8:55. Police arrives.
8:57. The ambulance arrives.

9:22. The police finally subdues Dupree.
9:24. Dupree gets a fine for not wearing a mask.

He asks to be arrested to spend the night in jail. “Better than with these crazies!”

9:29. The ambulance takes in 3 family members with frostbite. Asher is purple and pretty stiff.
9:32. The rest of us finishes dinner. Antigens for all. Negative. We made it pretty unscathed.

We put back our crampons and walk out to the car.

• • •

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More from @tomaspueyo

21 Dec
Why you should you vaccinate your kids in 6 words:

Vaccines reduce myocarditis frequency and gravity

And then they reduce deaths, hospitalizations, chronic fatigue syndrome...

Here's a guide with all the details, and what to do if you're on the fence: 🧵
1. Why vaccines reduce frequency & gravity of myocarditis:
Because COVID gives PIMS (Pediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome) in 1 in 4k infections. 75% of the time that includes myocarditis, so 1 in 5k COVID infections in kids include myocarditis.
That is ~3x-30x more common than myocarditis from the vaccine, depending on your age and gender.

It's also much worse after COVID than after a vaccine. This is what the vaccine does to you:
Read 13 tweets
21 Dec
You're on the fence on whether to vaccinate your kid because you're scared of myocarditis? Here are 6 rules to reduce that risk:
1. No children below 12 have reported myocarditis. This is for 12-17 children
2. Females have 10x lower risk than males.
3. Most of the benefit of the vaccines comes with the 1st dose. Most of the myocarditis cost comes with the 2nd dose. Start with the 1st dose and then gather more data.
4. The main pbm comes with shots that are not spaced enough in time. Instead of 2 shots spaced by 2-3 weeks, try spacing them by 2-3 months
Read 6 tweets
15 Dec
I only see 2 ways out of COVID:
1. An endemic disease that kills a few hundreds of thousands/million of ppl every year
2. A disease eradicated through global vaccination campaigns

I fear there's no 3. A virus that becomes less lethal over time and blends in like a cold
Note that 1 and 3 are pretty similar. In both cases, the disease is endemic and kills a few people every year. The cold doesn't, but the flu does, at ~0.13% of the sick every year.

But what if it wasn't 0.13%? What if it was 0.4%? Would we accept that? It's the ≠ btw 1 and 3
The reason why think we can get to 3 is because that's what probably happened to the 1918 flu: it's H1N1, and after killing so many ppl, it ended up evolving to kill less so it could spread more.
Read 10 tweets
14 Dec
What do we know about Omicron? I fear most ppl are unfortunately too optimistic. They're missing the Key Omicron Question.

Here's a summary of what we know about Omicron, and the key question that remains unanswered:
2 numbers matter in epidemiology: the transmission rate and the fatality rate.

The transmission rate tells you how many people are likely going to catch a virus, and how hard it will be to fight it.

Once you catch it, the fatality rate tells you how bad it will be.
Then there's 2 complications: these numbers interact in weird ways.

1. Ppl believe that viruses that become less lethal spread better.

2. Yet a less lethal virus might end up killing more.

How do we make sense of it all? Let's dive deep
Read 29 tweets
14 Dec
Everybody is very optimistic about Omicron.
I HOPE they're right.
I FEAR they're prey to a statistical error, Simpson's Paradox:
Simpson's Paradox says that you can see a trend because you're mixing two populations, but when you separate the populations, the trend is the opposite.
For Omicron, we might be mixing two populations: immune (through vaccinations or natural immunity) vs. naive (ie they have neither).
Read 6 tweets
7 Dec
4 paradoxes of feedback, one core insight, and 18 tools to get the best feedback:
Paradox 1: the more painful feedback is, the more important it is to get it.
Read 31 tweets

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