Thread by @sejoalzir

WHAT HAS BEEN LACKING IN ROBREDO'S CAMPAIGN

A designed permutation of voting motivators.

This thread, perhaps my last, will be about motivating voters to take a political stand, campaign, and finally vote for Robredo. Voting motivators will make or break her in this election.

From January next year until election day, I'll be tempering my political criticism or restraining myself from expressing my views on campaign strategies. I'm already a pariah. I don't need more othering. Kakampinks should be focusing on the right people instead of attacking me.

Again, this thread is not about my opinions or ideas plucked out of thin air but the campaign facts and events in the past I have studied and analyzed. If you itch to describe me, "a decoder of signs and symbols" is apt. That's still anthropological--to study the ways and means.

I've been dismissed or belittled by some Filipino journalists. It's not really about my intellectual deficiency but their incapability to be objective and to separate the author from the text. Maybe they'll still ignore a lunatic's alarm of fire even when black smoke is rising.

In the West, it has been said that an election is won through fear or hope, a voting motivator or the emotion of voters. In reality, it's won using a set of emotions that motivate them to vote--anger-calm, despair-hope, fear-courage, shame-pride, hate-love, trauma-nostalgia, etc.

Let me use these two winning election campaign TV ads aired in the US that are related in concept and wordplay: Reagan's in 1984 (Morning in America) and Biden's in 2020 (Mourning in America). The first ad is about hope, and the second one is about fear.

It was imperative for Reagan to use hope because he was the incumbent president then. His reelection campaign couldn't use negative emotions because that would be absurd--attacking his own administration. Was it all hope? Nope. I'll explain that later.

Biden could afford to use fear in "Mourning in America" because he was the opposition candidate pitted against Trump. He allowed the Lincoln Project, the maker of the TV ad, to air that as a complementary message to his being positive, unifying, calm, loving, etc as a moderate.

Reagan wasn't really all about hope. His Republican party had spread fear using the Soviet Union or the nuclear war. His macho, misogynistic supporters had been attacking soft Mondale and his female vice-presidential candidate. In short, Reagan designed a winning set of emotions.

Biden, too, had a permutation of voting motivators. He might have said "united Americans" or even "radical love" or "hope" or "change", but the anger of progressives mobilized voters of color and the hate of Reagan Republicans incessantly attacked Trump on every media platform.

Now let's examine the clear examples in the Philippines. Even Cory and Noynoy had a permutation of voting motivators. Their slogans alone emotionally expressed that campaign strategy. "Tama na! Sobra na! Palitan na!" incited Filipinos in 1986 to be desperate, angry, and hopeful.

Noynoy's "Kung Walang Kurap, Walang Mahirap" wasn't totally positive. It moved voters to be angry at corruption, the pastime of GMA as president, and assured the desperate poor voters of hope. Even his supporters then were attacking Gibo as GMA's puppet and her generals' robot.

The best and extreme Philippine example of a permutation of voting motivators as an election strategy is Duterte's campaign in 2016. He spoke of change, hope, courage, and empathy, but he spread anger, fear, hate, and despair at the same time using drug offenders, oligarchs, etc.

I need to include in this thread the radical love campaign strategy of Imamoglu when he ran for mayor of Istanbul, Turkey in 2019, hoping I can change gross misconceptions and wrong interpretations that will make Robredo lose in 2022. Yes, radical love as a strategy is bullshit.

Here's "Book of Radical Love" Imamoglu's party prepared. I don't consider it as an election campaign strategy but rules of engagement or interpersonal skills that were used by its cadre in one-on-one encounters with the supporters of different parties.
dijitalmecmua.chp.org.tr/CHPRadikal%20S…

The only strategy in that book that makes sense is "to talk to people one to one", but is that possible during this pandemic, in which the people are avoiding people? I understand its value in Turkey in 2019, considering its cafe and idling culture and openness to conversations.

Did Imamoglu win because of radical love? Nope. That's his political theater or persona. What really made him win the mayoral election was his anti-Syrian refugee campaign. That was xenophobia and demonization that spread fear, anger, despair, and hate.

syriadirect.org/istanbul-mayor…

As a matter of fact, an anti-Syrian riot happened in Istanbul days after Imamoglu was declared the winner. His victory was deemed as an approval of the Turks' anti-Syrian sentiments, and the initial survey that exposed such xenophobic, demonizing sentiments, indeed, was correct.

Where was the radical love in Imamoglu's victory? Yeah, he ignored Erdogan and his mayoral candidate and lovingly pursued their supporters, but that wasn't enough to win. He had to resort to a permutation of voting motivators. Robredo should never misread Imamoglu's radical love.

I need to add in this thread the two famous victims of radical love as an election campaign strategy so you won't consider this content as "just your opinions". Rahul Gandhi, an opposition leader in India, hugged his opponent, PM Narendra Modi, to publicly display radical love.

He did not counterattack when he was called "dumb", "child", "bartender's son", "Italian agent", etc. He did attack corruption and cronyism, but his political retorts were saintly and refined. He did talk about Modi's mismanagement but with respect. In the end, he lost, too weak.

The other one is Cory "radical love" Booker, a US senator who was one of the candidates in the Democratic primaries in 2020. He ended his presidential ambition early. His cute radical love did not work, nor did it excite Democratic donors and operatives.

cnn.com/videos/politic…

What baffled me during Booker's campaign was the rejection by the "Black Lives Matter" movement, the black evangelicals, and the black independents. The only plausible reason was the huge disconnect between the radical love of Booker and the anger and despair of black voters.

The political illogic of radical love if done as a campaign strategy is the re-alienation of the alienated voters, who are angry, desperate, hateful, and hopeless because of the populist demagogues, yet their leaders choose to be kind, loving, and respectful towards the latter.

I have no problem with radical love as rules of engagement or interpersonal skills. Kakampinks have been doing that already. They feed Marcos supporters. They are nice to Duterte supporters when they meet perhaps at Starbucks. Filipinos know that as pakikipagpalagayan ng loob.

Before I move on to my recommendations, I should warn that designing a permutation of voting motivators involves minimizing or maximizing emotions. The fear and despair campaign should be less in the time of covid-19 or Odette because voters are already fearful and desperate.

Anger and hate should be upped when voters hate corrupt politicians who have mismanaged their covid-19 response and are angry at inept public officials who have abandoned Odette victims. Anti-China sentiments should be exploited because a survey said Filipinos don't trust China.

As I've said, Biden's campaign strategies can defeat Marcos' confused presidential run patterned after Trump's in 2016 and 2020. Marcos' "Babangon Muli" and Trump's "Make America Great Again" are twins. Marcos' "Continuity" and Trump's "Keep America Great" in 2020 are twins too.

Like Trump in 2016, Marcos is primarily relying on nostalgia--the fabricated national memory about his father. Robredo's response should be trauma. Let Martial law victims air ads that show poverty, hunger, violence, and injustice during martial law and the Marcos dictatorship.

Another voting motivator employed by Marcos is tribalist pride. The same pride used by Trump to shepherd Proud Boys, QAnons, anti-liberal white evangelicals, and trailer-trash "deplorables". Robredo can use shame to subdue the Marcosian pride. Bring out the factual narratives.

DDS and BBM have resumed attacking the Aquinos, their favorite political piñata. I'm glad that Kris is now speaking up. That's not enough though. The Aquino sisters should sue those who defame their dead parents. That would be their most potent contribution to Robredo's campaign.

Also, like Trump and the surge of illegal immigrants at the border, Marcos will orchestrate a fake crisis that will make him come off as strong or tough because Robredo is a woman. Perhaps a bombing incident or a major clash between the NPA and the AFP days before the election.

PM Narendra Modi benefited from the bombing incident in Kashmir weeks before the 2019 Indian general election. That was the ultimate end of Rahul Gandhi's radical love. The already weak opposition candidate for PM was reduced further to political frailty and the curse of youth.

Robredo should expose ahead of time this evil strategy that will use her gender against herself and spread fear and anger among voters, even in interviews. Call it paranoia, but a campaign that is designed to win will use all relevant tools. Warning the public will turn the tide.

Marcos will also copy Trump's demonization of illegal immigrants and socialists in 2016 and 2020. His supporters have begun denouncing leftist activists and urging soldiers to finish off communist rebels. Robredo should stay away from the reds that have tagged her as an elitista.

To refresh your memory, it was not Duterte who effectively ruined Roxas by calling him elitista, disente and oligarko ad nauseam in 2016. It was the ideological acolytes of Jose Maria Sison, who was pro-Duterte then. The red Makabayan coalition has been doing that now to Robredo.

I'm still waiting for Marcos to demonize the Chinese tourists, workers, retirees, and residents in the Philippines--those criminal gangsters, drug smugglers, big-time scammers, illegal gamblers, etc. If that happens, it's Robredo's loss--for not listening to the surveyed voters.

Why are we scared of anger, hate, despair and loneliness? They're the mother of creativity. Have you read the "J'accuse" of Emile Zola? Have you seen the mural "Guernica" of Picasso? Unleash the hate, anger, despair, and loneliness of the people. You will see a creative campaign.

I'm not saying Robredo should be angry, hateful, lonely, and desperate too. No, the people don't want that for their leader. She should be calm, tough, strong, courageous, and strong-willed. She is the people's hope. Let her movement and supporters spread the voting motivators.

Like Biden, she should be calm and collected. She can be what she really is--a radical lover of the poor and loud critic of the unjust. That's her personality already, her life, her work, her advocacy. That's authenticity, but please don't use it as an election campaign strategy.

Biden allowed different groups to express their anger, hate, despair, fear, loneliness, etc. in his 2020 campaign. Robredo should do the same and allow anti-China Filipinos, martial law victims, anti-corruption advocates, etc. to air TV ads, staple posters, and hang tarpaulins.

To summarize this thread, Robredo's camp must design a permutation of voting motivators or tap the emotional pulses of Filipinos. Maximize the very appropriate, minimize the rather appropriate, and ignore the inappropriate. After all, emotions have degrees--strong, mild and weak.

Done.