I've been in Quebec for a few days
Reported covid cases peaked a few days ago at ~10K (though I'm guessing the real # is several times higher, based on what I've heard)
During 1st wave, daily covid deaths in Quebec peaked at >100
Second wave, it was > 50
Yesterday, it was 3
One reason the covid case numbers are coming down, I'm guessing, is that many people are no longer going in for medical treatment, because omicron isnt seen as a threat .... one restaurant manager told me his staff basically all got it. And he just asked them to take a week off
I've no idea how much of this severity drop from delta to onicron is bcuz (1) omicron is inherently less severe, (2) hi vax #'s, (3) skewing of cases to young ppl. Likely a mix of all 3. We'll find out by comparing jurisdictions, bcuz there's 3 variables but 100's of data points
Pessimists are correct that omicron might be deadlier than it appears, since deaths trail cases. But opposite could also be true, bcuz deaths now being reported include legacy delta cases. So the optimist take is that even today's lo death rate actually overstates omicron threat
That said, I will repeat my common refrain....get vaxed and get boosted.
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If current patterns hold, and Omicron ends up being as mild as early data indicates, then the main barrier to a resumption of regular life may be as much cultural as medical: We have spent the last 2 yrs obsessed with case counts, and un-learning that fixation will take time...
From early 2020 to November, 2021, cases and deaths moved in a predictable lockstep (even if vaccination steadily started to reduce the proportion of deaths) on a time-delay basis. Then omicron hit, and now that pattern has radically changed....
Omicron is much easier to get and (at least for those vaxxed/boosted) seems to be much less severe. But the old reflexes are still in place. This isn't a big deal for the anti-lockdown fatalists (*everyone* will get omicron, making it the herd phenomenon they always awaited)...
Ont. COVID case #'s have climbed since beginning of Nov, even b4 the omicron spike. But hospital/ICU admissions are almost totally flat—& ICU admissions for fully vaxxed remains extremely low. seems consistent with pattern South Africa's been reporting covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitali…
Omicron is going to be a problem for months, since a +-ve case is a +-ve case, with all the disruption that entails on a personal level. But society-wide, Ontario's hi vax rate (including 1-million-plus boosted) looks like it'll have a huge effect. hi cases yes, hi deaths no
Before I log off, I want to make sure I've pissed off everyone. Anti-vaxxers should be pissed at me bcuz I'm crediting vaccines (which are awesome). Lockdown apocalypticists should be pissed bcuz I'm telling them the sky isn't falling. If you're not mad, I've done something wrong
I just got sent the "Addressing Race in the Classroom" module that University of Guelph educators recently had to go through .... an especially good example of the way anti-racism is now being taught as a circular, unfalsifiable faith-based belief system ...
The course teacher is the school's Cultural Diversity Officer, who uses the course to promote her scholarship on the "exhausting" nature of microaggressions....
The theme of the course is that whenever anyone complains to you about a student or prof being racist, they're right. Don't argue. Instead, *thank* them. She provides a script for your apology, in fact.