Thread by @jonkay

If current patterns hold, and Omicron ends up being as mild as early data indicates, then the main barrier to a resumption of regular life may be as much cultural as medical: We have spent the last 2 yrs obsessed with case counts, and un-learning that fixation will take time...

From early 2020 to November, 2021, cases and deaths moved in a predictable lockstep (even if vaccination steadily started to reduce the proportion of deaths) on a time-delay basis. Then omicron hit, and now that pattern has radically changed....

Omicron is much easier to get and (at least for those vaxxed/boosted) seems to be much less severe. But the old reflexes are still in place. This isn't a big deal for the anti-lockdown fatalists (*everyone* will get omicron, making it the herd phenomenon they always awaited)...

But it *is* a big deal for hardcore lockdown enthusiasts who are now going through a kind of cognitive dissonance. every instinct from the last two years says to lock down hard & panic. But the ICU numbers tell another story, and they don't quite know how to deal with that ...

There are some important caveats here that the lockdown proponents emphasize: It's early days and omicron might turn out to be more severe. Not everyone is vaccinated. Etc. But more and more, I see them retreat to (1) fears of "Long COVID" and (2) fears of further mutation ...

In some ways, I take this as good news: Worries about long term effects of covid and further, as-yet-non-existent mutations, are obviously worth considering. But they're a luxury we weren't able to indulge when dealing with the more serious covid waves of the past...

Ultimately, very few of us (certainly not me) are going to support lockdowns for any reason except suppressing a real and deadly outbreak—not as a public health measure to avoid (controverted) claims about lingering effects from moderate cases and/or a theoretical next variant...

but again, there's a cultural issue at play. on social media, one underlying theme is that it is somehow inherently virtuous to refuse social contact & cancel holiday plans etc. Many have attached their brand to these postures. And they will cling hard to them under new pretexts.

The best way to remove those pretexts (and, more importantly, protect yourself and those around you) is to get vaccinated and boosted. We are all going to get omicron because (unlike its predecessors) it is a truly airborne contagion. Make sure you are prepared when this happens.