Tue🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿booster/3rd primary update:
209k reported yesterday, just over a quarter of the same day last week, with the Xmas break hangover continuing into the first Bank Holiday.

Total is now 27.5m, up just 400k over the last 4 days.

1/ Image
Age banded, we can see in pale blue all those unjabbed that will be eligible by the y/e, which totals just under 10m.

Progress since the acceleration started two weeks ago is shown in the middle band. and totals 7.7m.

2/ Image
And here are the proportions compared with all those who've been second dosed. Above age 50, the average is a very healthy 88%, (and c90% of those eligible), which will be making a considerable impact to dampen admissions growth.

3/ Image
Finally, age banded progress over the last month, which inevitably doesn't look great of late. However, we've now boosted two thirds of those in their forties, and half of those in their 30s, against 36% and 17% respectively just two weeks ago.

4/ Image
Although the days either side of Xmas & Boxing Day are much lower than we've seen of late, they, along with those done on the 25/26th still represent a lot of work done by those willing to shorten their holiday break, so thanks to everyone involved.

5/5

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More from @john_actuary

31 Dec
We now have the primary diagnosis (PD) update for England. Of those in hospital with COVID, there's been a continuing fall of the % for whom COVID is the PD.

In London the fall is even more marked.

I discuss why this is to be expected here.


1/ Image
It doesn't mean we're not seeing a steep increase in hospital numbers for whom the PD is COVID though. Here's the position for England, with a 30% increase in 3 days from the 25th to 28th (since which overall occupation has risen a further 20%).

2/ Image
And here's the equivalent regional picture, with the sharp increase in London very clear (up 42% in a week)
Again, London has risen a further 15% since the 28th, but we don't have a PD % to match the last two dates with.

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
30 Dec
Thu🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿booster/3rd primary update:
345k reported today, the post-Xmas recovery continues, but it's still only half of a week ago.

Total is now 28.1m.

Insight from one area suggests it's demand driving the lower figures - maybe due to high infections in the younger age groups?

1/ Image
Over the last month we can see progress here, with the Xmas break very visible. The lowest age band has now reached 40% of those with two doses (or 45% of those now eligible).

2/ Image
The pale blue bars of those eligible but yet to be boosted now totals just over 9m, with progress since the acceleration (the middle bands), now at 8.3m.

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
30 Dec
Latest CH deaths data has nudged up, but not to an extent that contradicts the recent downward trend.

As usual we don't know vax status of these deaths, although in general CH residents have seen very high take-up. Neither do we know whether COVID was the primary cause.

1/ Image
More generally Over 70 deaths (to 17th Dec) shows a continued but slow decline. With this population mostly boosted some weeks ago now, we wouldn't expect further sharp falls from a "booster effect", with community prevalence of the virus being the main influence now.

2/ Image
The rapid rise of Omicron is unlikely to be influencing either graph yet to any meaningful effect, particularly as the initial surge has predominately been in younger age groups.

3/
Read 5 tweets
26 Dec
We've recently seen a fall in COVID beds occupied in London where COVID is the primary cause of occupation, from around 85% to 75%. Is this a sign of Omicron being less serious? Or is it a result of a rapidly growing variant, and the lag before "With COVID" admissions rise?

1/ Image
Here's a very simple example, which starts at Day 0 with 100 From COVID adm'ns, and 20 With COVID (so 83% primary diagnosis).

I've modelled this assuming infections double every 3 days (up 25% per day) for just 10 days, level either side.

2/ Image
Now, people admitted who just happen to test positive ("With" COVID) should increase exactly in line with this curve. (Big simplification - I've not modelled age differences here.)

So the sharp-eyed will notice this graph is exactly the same, except for axes and titles.

2/ Image
Read 12 tweets
24 Dec
Xmas Eve 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿booster/3rd primary update:

A disappointing 493k today, down a third on last week, breaking the stellar run we've seen in the last 10 days.
Maybe it's a Xmas effect, but we can't afford too much down time over the festive period.

Total is now 27.1m.

1/
We can see the effect here, with the weekly total turning down. From here on it's going to be somewhat distorted by the Xmas period, so is likely to be of less value. I've assumed there will be little activity on 25th/26th, even if some centres are open.

2/
The pale blue "to dos" now total just over 10m, but realistically, assuming 90% take-up, it would be around 6.5m.

With 6 full-ish jabbing days left, that's no longer likely, especially as many will be infected and not able to come forward anyway.

3/
Read 6 tweets
24 Dec
Two ONS infection survey updates in two days - it must be Xmas.

It's only advanced by 3 days, but we can see large increases in E/W/NI.

1.5m are estimated to be infected in England over the period 13th to 19th Dec.

But there's more...

1/
The 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿figure of 2.83% is an average over the previous week. Looking at the data, the latest estimate, for the 19th, is 3.76%, up 77% on a week earlier.

And there's more still...

2/
London is estimated at a staggering 9.5%, three times the rate of just a week ago.

Remember that the current level of admissions won't reflect much of this growth, and we are 5 days further on from the latest point shown here.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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