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Ryan Hisner Profile picture
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28 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/4 For about the 5th time, leading politicians & powerful medical authorities (e.g. @CDCgov) have decided that mass infection is preferable to inconveniencing "the economy," which is code for the interests of our wealthy overlords.
2/4 How have our previous attempts to achieve herd immunity through mass infection worked out? One could look to many countries, but Italy provides a good example.
3/4 Is there any limit to the number of times a strategy can fail, with devastating consequences, before politicians and public health leaders will acknowledge its utter failure?
4/4 Hopefully this folly will end before we reach the end of the Greek alphabet.

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More from @LongDesertTrain

Ryan Hisner Profile picture
24 Dec
1/6 At a private gathering of 33 Pfizer-triple-vaccinated health care workers in the Faroe Islands, 21 were infected with Omicron—a superspreading event among 3-dose-vaccinated people. All received dose #3 within 2.5 months of the event. Very discouraging.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2/6 All participants tested negative within 36 hours of the event: five with rapid tests and the other 28 with PCR tests. Median age was 45. Only four of the 21 infected had any comorbidities.
3/6 And very similar to the Oslo Christmas superspreader event (where 79 of 80 infected were symptomatic, with 74 having >3 symptoms), all 21 experienced symptoms. There is virtually no asymptomatic infection with Omicron it seems.
Read 6 tweets
Ryan Hisner Profile picture
24 Dec
1/11 Shocking and terrible news, possibly for the entire world. Molnupiravir works by inducing mutations in the virus. The potential danger is obvious, and Merck has not provided any reassuring data on this.
2/11 Perhaps most shocking is that MOV was approved when it's not at all clear that it will have any benefit at all for the people taking it. MOV only showed any efficacy at all in the pre-Delta era. nature.com/articles/d4158…
3/11 The @Nature article above actually understates the matter. In the second part of the trial, from Aug-Oct, there was actually a 32% higher rate of hospitalization in the MOV group than in the placebo group (6.2% vs 4.7%).
Read 16 tweets
Ryan Hisner Profile picture
23 Dec
1/4 Must-read 🧵. Molnupiravir could be a catastrophe, breeding a nightmarish panoply of variants. Approval would be insane.

"MOV approval is most momentous decision the FDA will make in this epidemic, maybe in FDA history, maybe even in the entire history of pharmaceuticals."
2/4 Molnupiravir works by causing SARS-CoV-2 to undergo so many mutations that it ceases to function. Except it doesn't always work. And when it doesn't, virus with potentially beneficial mutations could survive, be passed on, and haunt the world.
3/4 It's not even clear if molnupiravir works at all—in the Delta era phase of its trial, it proved almost totally useless. Perhaps it doesn't work against rapidly replicating variants like Delta & Omicron. nature.com/articles/d4158…
Read 5 tweets
Ryan Hisner Profile picture
17 Dec
1/ Can't put it better than @micah_arsham does here. The CDC treats the public like 1st-graders. Their job is to inform & advise the public, warning of any imminent dangers, & they've utterly failed. People will be blind-sided, with grim consequences.
2/ As long as the CDC crafts their messaging for political purposes, with a greater concern for shaping public attitudes and manipulating public behavior than telling the unvarnished truth, they will not regain public trust. @michaelmina_lab said it well:
3/ John Barry, author of The Great Influenza, on the *fundamental lesson* of the 1918 pandemic:
"Those in authority must retain the public’s trust. The way to do that is to distort nothing, to put the best face on nothing, to try to manipulate no one"
rochester.edu/newscenter/his…
Read 12 tweets
Ryan Hisner Profile picture
16 Dec
1/8 Maybe the most well-designed antibody study on Omicron yet. The 🧵 is very well written & the figures are the clearest & best I've seen. Awesome work. Takeaways:

3-dose mRNA > Infection + mRNA >>>> Recent 2-dose mRNA

Moderna > Pfizer >>>> natural infection or J&J
2/8 We already knew J&J primary vaccination was much inferior to either mRNA shot, but this study indicates J&J inferiority remains even after boosting with mRNA, which is troubling.
3/8 Excellent, comprehensive, and enlightening thread on this subject below by @michaelzlin. He makes the case that J&J recipients need 2 mRNA shots, & I don't see how anyone could disagree. Lots of other great insights here as well. Highly recommended.
Read 8 tweets
Ryan Hisner Profile picture
15 Dec
1/5 Another lab study showing extreme Omicron evasion of NAbs—33-44x reduction for mRNA & AZ. Zero detectable neutralization for J&J, Sputnik, Sinopharm, and—crucially—a majority of convalescents. Infection + mRNA vaccination, on the other hand, holds up well. h/t @dgurdasani1
2/5 Seven out of the eight monoclonal antibody (MAb) treatments currently in use are rendered useless by Omicron. The other (sotrovimab) has 3-fold reduced neutralization vs Omicron. Note: this study used VSV pseudovirus expressing Omicron S protein, not live virus.
3/5 ACE2 affinity increased compared to ancestral SARS-CoV-2, though still lower than that seen in Alpha. No info on Delta, though in silico analysis estimates Omicron binds more tightly than Delta. biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 5 tweets

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