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Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
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28 Dec, 7 tweets, 2 min read
You got it right again Eric. Daily cases in the US have gone up 2-fold in the 20 days since you called it 2.0.
What's happening in Manhattan is a preview.

-1 in 50 residents positive
-Test positive rate almost 20%
-Hospitalizations doubled.

That's just incredible because the prior infection and vaccination rate in Manhattan is so high.

news.google.com/articles/CBMid…
Omicron doesn't seem to mind prior infection or vaccination in terms of ability to cause infection— but based on how it's playing out in South Africa and UK, severity will be lower because prior infection and vaccine induced immunity will continue to protect from severe disease.
The problem is the US is not as well vaccinated as Spain or even the UK.

We are only 60% (2-dose) vaccinated. Only 20% have had a booster.

A milder infection that spreads so rapidly can cause huge problems directly and indirectly.
Directly because millions have not yet had vaccines or COVID and are vulnerable. Also those who are immunocompromised and unable to mount an effective response.

Indirectly because hospitals are already full. So care for all other illnesses will be affected.
Update: We are at more daily cases than at any time during the pandemic.
And jus like that...
Stay safe.

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More from @VincentRK

Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
30 Dec
We were as low as 80,000 weekly cases in late June.

It's 25 times higher now.
25 times.

Weekly Covid cases have quadrupled in 2 months.
We are at higher levels than anytime during the pandemic.
@OurWorldInData Image
If you think rising cases don't matter think again.

1) When hospitals are full, care for all other health problems suffers.

2) Healthcare workers have to take off from work leading to staff shortage. See important article @ddiamond @washingtonpost washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12…
Read 9 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
28 Dec
One of the hardest things for me in this pandemic has been communicating the seriousness of COVID while also pointing out the good and hopeful signs.

With omicron, I'm both worried and hopeful.

Worry 👇 Hope 👇 ImageImage
We don't want to minimize the seriousness.

We also do not want to ignore the good signs.

The worry is that a lot of people getting Covid at the same time will cause huge problems: on its own and due to stress on an already stressed healthcare system even if omicron is milder.
The hope is at least partly due to prior immunity from infection and or vaccines, the death rate from omicron does appear lower. And while the omicron wave peaks faster and higher, it also seems to recede faster.
Read 4 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
22 Dec
Breaking: FDA authorizes Paxlovid, a pill, for preventing severe disease in COVID patients 12 & older who are at high risk due to comorbidities or advanced age. I welcome this.

In trials, this drug reduced risk of deaths or hospitalization by almost 90%
washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12…
Treatment should start as soon as possible after onset of symptoms and within 5 days of symptom onset.

The trial studied adults 18 and older with a prespecified risk factor for progression to severe disease OR were 60 years and older.
Link to the FDA authorization. fda.gov/news-events/pr…
Read 5 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
22 Dec
Cases in Spain have now exceeded the US.

Why is this important? Spain is one of the best vaccinated countries in Europe: 80% fully vaccinated.

The US is only 60% fully vaccinated. UK is 70%.
It's a warning.
1/
The sharp rise in cases in Spain shows omicron can easily cause post vaccine breakthrough infections. Deaths are lower suggesting vaccines do protect against severe disease.
2/
Note that the lower deaths may be also partially due to a lag in cases and deaths. But there is no question omicron will stress out an already stressed out healthcare system.

People who need care for their illnesses won't get the care they need if hospitals are overwhelmed.
3/
Read 7 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
17 Dec
When all is said and done, COVID vaccines have taken the sting out of COVID.

This is seen in cases versus deaths in UK: Deaths lower this time around even though cases skyrocket. Vaccines work.
Also seen in the US but not as striking as in the UK probably because a) heterogeneity: some states are doing like UK, some worse; b) we are not as well fully vaccinated (60% vs almost 70% UK); c) UK had a bigger death toll in January; d) they are ahead of us in the omicron wave.
This is even better illustrated in countries that are much more fully vaccinated than the US or UK. Note how deaths have stayed low with recent waves even as cases went up.
Read 8 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
16 Dec
The Great South African Mystery.

At this point, the US should have 4 times more immunity than SouthAfrica: 3 times more people have already had COVID in the US; our vaccination rate is more than double theirs.

But our current death rate is running 4 times higher. Why?
1/
I really don't know
3 possible reasons:

a) Differences in demographics & co-morbidities (although with prior waves, their deaths have tracked ours)
b)Inaccurate case ascertainment: they may have had far more people with prior Covid than has been reported
c) Different variants
2/
Many have pointed to the low death rate now in South Africa with the Omicron wave as an indication that Omicron is milder.

But I think our problem in the US is different: we are facing delta plus omicron. Not just omicron.
3/
Read 5 tweets

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