2022 prediction thread!
Ill RT this in a year so you can see how you did.

First one: What's the chance that BTC be above 75k usd in one year?
What's the chance the stock market have a significant crash that lasts more than a month?
What's the chance that we have clearly achieved herd immunity to covid, whether by infection or vaccine?
What's the chance you have experienced a major relationship change (e.g., single to seriously dating, married to divorced, etc.)
What's the chance we see another disease outbreak in addition to the coronavirus that results in 100+ deaths by the end of 2022?
What's the chance your weight end up 10 or more pounds heavier than you are now?
What's the chance that I (Aella) will have 120k or more twitter followers on this account?
What's the chance you have picked up a new hobby you spent at least 50+ hours participating in?
Will you be happier in 2022 than in 2021?
What's the chance Elon Musk will announce a formal mission to put a person on Mars?
What's the chance someone from your immediate family will have died in 2022?
What's the chance at least two major airlines will mandate proof of vaccination in order to fly (whether by legal requirement or company policy)?
(submitted by @AndrewFerguson)
What's the chance BTC will spend at least one full week below $25k?
What's the chances you will have had sex with a new person in 2022?
What's the chance that by the end of 2022, scientific consensus will have a majority agreement that aliens have likely visited earth?
What's the chance that Joe Biden will die before the end of 2022?
(Submitted by @rothosphere )
yes this has typo but im not redoing the entire damn thread, the 8 is supposed to be 85

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More from @Aella_Girl

26 Dec 21
I unapologetically view people who literally believe the stars/planets can predict unrelated things on earth as uniquely bad at thinking (moreso than many other strange beliefs)
But if you don't literally believe this, then astrology seems like it could be really cool. 1/
There's a ton of strange 'power of mind' stuff that probably feels very much like magic, and might need to be approached in a frame of magic for it to work well (similarly how believing in jesus makes spiritual healing work better on you). But it's hard to strike a balance! 2/
As in it can be really hard to let multiple frames overlay your reality at once without picking the mystical one and letting it blend into the predictive one. Mystical experiences can be soul-shatteringly profound, and it's *hard* to not let it interrupt normal truthfinding. 3/
Read 7 tweets
24 Dec 21
I think sex work changed my relationship to my appearance without me noticing: a thread
Pre sex work, I cared very little about my appearance. My mom picked out all my clothes to buy till I was 16 or so; I wore minimal/rare makeup, looking hot wasnt something i thought much of 1/
I started sex work when I was 20; over the years, caring about my appearance became really important for work. I put a *huge* amount of effort into it, cause it was absolutely crucial for my income levels.
This entire time, I viewed the care as "sex work specific"
As in; I figured "being hot" was an overlay onto my natural, not-caring-about-appearance default, and independent of sex work I wouldn't care much anymore. I think this started out true! But nearly a decade in and I think it's fused with me.
Read 5 tweets
23 Dec 21
a *sigh* woo clarification thread
1. not all woo is created equal; i think some forms of it are still wrong but not very predictive of curiosity/iq
2. i think its possible to approach woo practices with a framework thats compatible with science, i.e. narrative/placebo/ritual work
to elaborate:
just cause a belief is wrong doesn't make it predictive of the person being incurious. If you lived in a hindu culture, "do you believe in hinduism" wouldnt help much differentiating the smart from the dumb people. It depends on how accessible 'right' info is.
This is why I don't believe thinking 9/11 is an inside job is super predictive of curiosity/iq; it's basically plausible (governments doing practical things in secret), and further determination relies on a bunch of confusing details about material sciences or whatever
Read 7 tweets
23 Dec 21
Ppl who are real into astrology/conspiracies/woo beliefs *really* trigger me, but it's not because of the beliefs themselves, it's what it indicates about the person.
To me, it implies a profound lack of curiosity in checking to see if their beliefs are true. 1/
They're drawn to woo beliefs because it feels good or serves some meaning purpose for them - which I get, I mean I was raised in religion - but there's a total absence of interest in tests to check other theories for why they might be experiencing this thing 2/
I don't get this! How could you not be curious about other theories, when you *know* other people in the world deeply believe stuff that is clearly wrong? It *must* feel convincing to them, so "feeling convincing" to you shouldn't be sufficient criteria. 3/
Read 6 tweets
5 Dec 21
When you hurt someone you don't like, you lean away from the pain - distance yourself, say they deserve it, you don't feel a bit of what you've caused.
But when you hurt someone you like, you also lean away from the pain - you try to fix it, reassure, apologize, make it stop.
1/
What happens if we don't lean away from the pain? What if we lean *in*? What if it's okay to hurt someone? Of course this does *not* mean distance. To accidentally hurt someone and not lean away is the hardest of all; it means staying with their pain, and yours for causing it 2/
It means you're not trying to fix or brush away. You're here saying "I accept that I hurt you, it's okay that I hurt you", as the pain you caused them shoots back through your bond with them to burn you as well; and you hold that bond, don't flinch, don't let go. 3/
Read 4 tweets
23 Nov 21
I usually try not to call people idiots, but people have *somehow* managed to interpret this tweet as though I support pedophilia?? Where the hell is the reading comprehension?
And this question (and others like it) is really important, because this *has happened before*. 1/
There actually *is* a tribe where the pedophilia thing is normal: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sambia_pe…
And this is great fodder for a billion questions around morality, trauma, how influenced we are by cultural norms, etc. I can't believe people know about this and just shrug it off! 2/
And it's not just that tribe - culture across the world and history has been chock full of behaviors that we today find abhorrent, but at the time were not perceived as harmful. The implications of this... this is like one of the *most* important things to think about. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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