Share this page!

AG Profile picture
Twitter logo
30 Dec 21, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Which shows you how useless that metric has become.
Specifically, high transmission = 100+ cases per 100K or > 10% positivity rate. But most people testing right now have Covid-19 so positivity rates are high everywhere. But positive tests tell you little about how many people are sick (much less severe illness) esp w Omicron.
Just to emphasize how useless this is...

Every region in the UK is currently above 10% positivity (so would be red) as cases exploded beginning a month ago, but their hospitalizations are way below previous Delta wave and deaths are even trending down.
But just look at the replies and the scary red map did its job.

"How could the CDC cut isolation periods to 5 days???" etc.
Ignore the second chart. Here are deaths.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with AG

AG Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AGHamilton29

AG Profile picture
31 Dec 21
Problem for Biden/health officials is they haven't been upfront throughout. They pushed specific restrictive policies and insisted that any disagreement with their approach was anti-science. Now that they are trying to shift to a more balanced approach and both sides are pissed.
The left is pissed because they bought into that message so now that there is a shift and they see Fauci etc. repeating lines they previously dismissed, they think the admin is turning anti-science. The right is pissed bc it's an admission that they weren't honest.
Public policy needed to be more nuanced. There were legitimate balancing questions between protecting people from the virus, protecting mental health, economic impacts etc.

Those all got dismissed at the time and anyone that advocated for more balance was attacked.
Read 6 tweets
AG Profile picture
29 Dec 21
Covid-19 hospitalizations are a very poor tracker for community risk of severe illness w Omicron because incidental hospitalizations correlate to community spread. A lot of people in places like NYC are going to the hospital for other reasons and then testing positive.
That's on top of already a huge disconnect between cases and hospitalizations. Compare cases vs hospitalizations for NYC in the previous wave to now.

Cases exploding w Omicron, but Covid hospitalizations increasing at steady rate that looks more like last wave. ImageImage
NYC doesn’t break out their data, but other places w recent outbreaks suggest up to 50% of the Covid-19 hospitalizations could be incidental. Significant increase from previous waves/variants.

Open ICU capacity is probably a better measure. Image
Read 4 tweets
AG Profile picture
27 Dec 21
I know I should just ignore, but this is based on complete ignorance.

1) No one made Biden claim the failure was at the federal level that the problem was just a POTUS that didn't have a plan, and that he was going to "shut down" the virus.

He's being judged by his own promises
2) The claims are just wrong. Covid-19 cases are currently exploding mostly in blue northeastern states. How is that the fault of Republican Governors in Southern states?

PS Fl, whose Gov he cited, has a higher vaccination rate than most of those states.
3) Mask mandates have had questionable effectiveness at preventing virus spread through the pandemic. Yes, R Governors have opposed vaccine mandates, but vaccine rates are still really high everywhere and w latest variant cases are not dependent on vaccine status (hosp/death are)
Read 5 tweets
AG Profile picture
21 Dec 21
We get more data every day strongly suggesting there is a decoupling between cases and hospitalizations with Omicron.

I don't understand people (correctly) noting that data suggests it is more transmittable while downplaying data from the same places that it is milder.
More direct evidence for the conclusion that Omicron is significantly less virulent than previous variants and it's not just vaccine/previous infection driving better outcomes:
And more…
Read 5 tweets
AG Profile picture
21 Dec 21
This isn't a well organized thread (more of a rant) so feel free to mute, but let's talk about some things we know about Covid-19 and how that should inform our public policy decisions because it feels like the world has gone insane and there is a huge disconnect right now.
The original strain of Covid-19 was more transmittable than your average virus and very deadly to certain parts of the population (very skewed by age). Children were and remain relatively low-risk. Vaccines did a good job protecting against spread & severe illness w that strain.
Covid-19 was shown to be very seasonal and hits in waves. Delta variant originated in India in late 2020. It was far more transmissible than the original variant w ~same severity. A lot more people got Covid and waves lasted longer, but we had vaccines.
Read 16 tweets
AG Profile picture
19 Dec 21
He would be doing himself a massive political favor too, but he can’t do it.

The mindset that people can forever avoid getting Covid-19 if they just do the right things has become too central to how they talk about the virus despite obviously being wrong
Reality is that this virus is too transmittable to avoid it. The goal was to buy ourselves enough time to develop vaccines and effective treatments that make outcomes comparable to other viruses we already deal with. That’s exactly what happened, but too many never accepted it.
Instead, they spent too long pretending that just doing the right things will mean you never get Covid. It was never true or realistic. Now we have to learn to live with Covid-19. The sooner people, especially policy makers, accept that, the better off we will all be.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @AGHamilton29 has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @AGHamilton29!

Read all threads by @AGHamilton29

:(