Thread by @ariehkovler

This week I wrote about how, despite it being a disaster, January 6 could have gone much worse.

arieh.substack.com/p/it-could-hav…

First, the obvious: it's a miracle that the Capitol invaders never came face to face with Members of Congress or VP Pence. Only a combination of coincidence, timing, quick thinking (especially by Officer Goodman) and luck prevented a hostage situation or worse.

If a staffer in the Senate Parliamentarian's office hadn't rescued the Electoral Vote envelopes from Senate chamber before it was taken, the invaders would probably have destroyed them, and the Joint Session might not have reconvened that night.
today.com/news/woman-pic…

Mayor Bowser, BLM leaders and basically everyone urged against a counter-protest on January 5 or 6 in D.C. and people listened. A major anti-Trump gathering would have led to street clashes with thousands of heavily-armed MAGA supporters. wtop.com/local/2021/01/…

Remember, too, that bombs were planted at RNC and DNC. They didn't explode, perhaps due to a timing fault. Insane luck again.

The shooting could have started for real. It would only have taken one tanked-up MAGA rioter, one scared Capitol Police officer, for the scene outside the Capitol to turn into a full-on firefight. I'm still surprised only one person was shot that day.

Trump could have called explicitly for his supporters to rise up. A single tweet at 3pm on January 6 could have triggered a civil war. He must have considered it as he watched the rioters on the TV and ignored Senators as they begged him for help.

Some of these scenarios end with the Joint Session unable to reconvene on Jan 6, something Trump desperately wanted. While the Capitol was still being attacked, Trump and Rudi Giuliani called Senators begging them to delay the Session for a day or two.
edition.cnn.com/2021/01/08/pol…

Some of the scenarios end with troops restoring order in D.C. and perhaps the use of the Insurrection Act or other powers that would essentially give Trump direct military control over the District for a few days.

If Trump had personal military control of D.C. on the evening of January 6, ostensibly to 'defend the Capitol', do we really think he'd have allowed the Joint Session to meet that evening? With Flynn, Powell etc in his ear urging him to use martial law to overturn the election?

There was no path on January 6 that ended with a bloodless, lawful protest at the Capitol. That was off the table. Given what *could* have happened, America really got lucky that day. Full article here:

arieh.substack.com/p/it-could-hav…