This thread is about Hurricane Dorian, the storm that was originally forecast to make a devastating landfall on Mar-A-Lago, and which Trump famously claimed was going to head to Alabama.
It was inspired by new imagery which we now have of this happening on @NASA Worldview.
@NASA While Trump was widely ridiculed at the time for suggesting that the storm might make its way to Alabama, initial forecasts did indicate that it would take a path in that direction.
@NASA From my thread at the time (August 28th), the map shown here is the one that he added to in an oval office press conference on September 5th 2021 (Video here >> abc.net.au/news/2019-09-0…), were he added his modified forecast for Hurricane Dorian's path.
In the press conference where Trump presented his rather comically doctored chart he says: "We got lucky in Florida, very very lucky indeed." Which is true. Especially him personally. abc.net.au/news/2019-09-0…
Here we see the track evolution between August 28th and September 1st when the official forecast track finally stayed off the Florida Coast.
Before this course correction for a fairly long period it looked as if there might be a direct hit on Mar-a-Lago [Google maps.. google.com/maps/place/Mar…]
During a 24 hour window from 11pm on 29th August through 11pm on August 30th Mar-a-Lago was directly in Dorian's crosshairs.
Here we see a graphic animation of the path of Dorian at this time (I.E. on August 28th). Dorian is moving fast in a very straight line.
That said cyclones are tricky to predict and even on August 28th the two major global models were not in agreement, and the European ECMWF model was indicating some kind of turn to the north near landfall..
But what actually happened was nothing like either forecast. #Dorian stayed almost exactly on its predicted @NHC_Atlantic trajectory, but slowed down and stopped over the Bahama Islands, where it stayed for several days before turning north.
Here is the forecast path evolution.
Major Hurricane Dorian, a Category 5 super hurricane devastated the Bahamas and is thought to have killed at 300+ people (75 confirmed 245 missing) and inflicted 3.4 billion USD in damage. reliefweb.int/report/bahamas….
Anyway that is the untold part of the story of the disaster, and here are the new visuals from @NASA each shows visual satellite data and so we only see the storm during daylight hours.
This first one shows the storm on approach. Slowing but not yet stopped.
This first animation is from Sunday September 1st, the day the storm had been expected to make landfall in Florida. This second animation picks up the path as Dorian makes landfall in the Bahamas and slows down.
And here we see Dorian as he remains stationary for nearly a full day on September 2nd and weakens, losing his eye. Reports during this period from the Island were nearly non-existent as the northern Island group was being battered, especially the area close to the eye wall.
And then finally here we see Dorian finally starting to move again on September 3rd.
At which point it made a 90 degree right turn and headed North instead of West as predicted. In this thread @RyanMaue who is an expert in these things uses the Dorian example to explain the math.
Using Ryan's numbers here the placement of Dorian was within statistical expectations (as it was still within the cone - as it stopped, inside the cone for 48 hours.
Anwyay inc conclusion: 1. Dorian is a great poster child for the hazards of hurricanes, horrific and unpredictable. 2. Donald Trump was exceedingly lucky that Mar-a-Lago was not damaged in 2019
....
.... and 4.
3. His weird press conference on 5th Sept. is understandable given he spent a day thinking his home would be pummelled by the major hurricane.
P.S. here is Trump's full press conference about Dorian, where he presents his modified NHC weather map. [Note its glitchy at the beginning - just wait] c-span.org/video/?463981-…
This is where Hurricane Dorian was when Trump held the press conference, two days after the animations above.
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This video is about the work done by the “terrorist” who drove through the Magdeburg Christmas Market tonight at high speed killing injuring around 100 people.
How does a doctor practicing as a psychiatrist go from being a women’s rights defender focussed on Assisting Islamic women to escape an oppressive culture to being a multi murderer in his adopted country.
Meet @DrTalebJawad
A very unusual terrorist.
A good starting point for those interested in getting closer to the truth about what happened tonight is to visit @DrTalebJawad ‘s Twitter profile and look at his recent messages before the account gets locked.
It is immediately apparent that this is not your normal Islamic terrorist, in fact it quickly becomes apparent from his tweets that he was likely suffering from a psychotic break or something similar before he committed the horrific act of terrorism in Magdeburg.
This incident took place in Magdeburg a city relatively near to where I am currently in Eastern Germany. It was fairly late evening. But the news exploded locally very quickly on Twitter.
And the initial speculation was of course that the terrorist was Islamic and that it was another planned terror attack.
At this point several hours later however it looks like the perpetrator was having an accrue psychological break.
Follow @bartov_omer he is an Israeli Genocide Scholar and (my guess) a realist geopolitical analyst who will almost certainly be heard a lot in coming days and weeks. x.com/bartov_omer?s=…
…. In large part because his explanation of the true nature of the implementation of the current phase of the so-called “general’s plan” in Gaza and the criminality of @IsraeliPM Bibi Netanyahu is so clear and authoritative.
The war in Gaza is now over Bartov explains.
What is now happening, and what remains to be done on the a Israeli side is effectively the implementation of the full Zionist extremist (Ben Givir Smotrich and Netanyahu plan - I.e. removing Palestinians from Gaza altogether, an object that will be achieved through starving the remaining civilians and using other methods to make it impossible to continue to live there.
The strip is already being carved up into enclaves for this purpose. You could call them “Ghettos” (my word) corralling and keeping the Palestinian population separated whilst efforts to remake and settle the strip are completed.
. @amanpour It’s not just the IDF that responds to press questions with rote answers that are clearly false.
The U.S. @StateDept has been doing exactly the same thing throughout the war for 14 months. Parroting the line “Israel has a right to defend itself” when everyone in the planet knows this is not true.
I know you must know this also. We all do.
I commend your report but I ask you and your network to please go further and actively oppose this war. And to call for it to end.
It is clear now in recent statements from Trump and Netanyahu that another war is intended in the Middle East by the U.S. and Israel. Its advocates will stood start lining up to beat the drums for this war.
Please @CNN, it is now time to end all of this.
The question we all have then is “When will the U.S. bring this evil to an end?”
A war with Iran 21 years after the horrific war in Iraq will have devastating consequences beyond imagining.
In its unwavering support for Netanyahu these past 14 months the U.S. is in the process now of destroying itself. Just as Israel is, or has done already.
The first speaker in this star studded panel here is sober clear and damning.
“… featuring Mustafa Barghouti, Mads Gilbert, Ilan Pappe, and Ingrid Fiskaa – discusses and critically explores three key areas: the present moment where Gaza remains under constant genocidal attack from Israel; the so-called “legitimacy” of the rules-based order (including but not limited to international law) that’s supposed to prevent or stop such violence; and the future of rebuilding Gaza in a way that actually honours the hopes, dreams and aspirations of the Palestinian people.”
The panel is moderated by Paul Salvatori, senior producer and presenter at TRT World.
As Christmas and the New Year approach, reflection, both self and outward looking are part of the zeitgeist for the faithful throughout the world.
As it stands this Christmas in Bethlehem will be the “second Christmas during an ongoing Genocide”. Placed in quote marks here because it seems hard to reconcile with reality.
How can this still be continuing?
How is it that the @Statedept even now - 15 months after October 7th and more recently the defeat of both Hezbollah and Assad - is still mostly saying “Israel has a right to defend itself. As massacres of 50-80 Gaza civilians - predominantly women and children - continue to occur on a daily basis.
Could there at least be a Christmas and New Years Truce? A brief silencing of the guns, a break from the endless massacre of innocents via fire-from-the-sky, as if Gaza were now Mordor.
It is certainly already nearly as desolate.
Someone needs to ask Bibi Netanyahu who is unusually and nearly singularly responsibility for all of this. WHEN AND HOW DOES THIS END?
There is a new chapter on the story of Mosab Hassan Yousef.
This is the original production of this. But he will soon be known far better than he was when Chris Cuomo brought his story to life here back in December 2023 at the outset of the war, in the wake of January 7th.
Hamas Founder's Son Turned Israeli Spy - Mosab Hassan Yousef, "The Green... youtu.be/llJxz1pAlQQ?si… via @YouTube
“Hamas’s Aspiration is global”
“The Muslim Brotherhood is Here in the United States.”
For clarification Mosab Hassan is unquestionably completely genuine and in is views, and like me he is a pacifist when it comes to saving human life from conflict. And this as he articulates very very clearly remains his view.
And for this reason - notwithstanding the fact that this latest broadcast is extremely triggering, and will likely soon become very controversial, is also very important.
The target of this messaging is Americans. Not me.
And probably not you, even though a large portion of my followers are in the U.S.
“The Neighbours & friends of Syria, and international solidarity movements, and all people of good consciousness need to develop a counter strategy to the ongoing U.S-Israel War Drumming - that is now clearly moving U.S. towards a 2003 repeat of the 2nd Gulf War.”
“The media's role in a democratic society in general is to provide the public with an informed basis upon which they can exercise their democratic rights to lobby, and express their views on what should happen to their elected representatives. And nothing changes during wartime.
When measured by this standard I would conclude that the media both here in New Zealand and everywhere else in the Western World – with the exception of the Internet – has failed spectacularly to do its job.”