Hope for the New Year comes from South Africa: the omicron wave peaks quickly in 3 weeks. And comes down quickly.
Much faster than previous waves.
Hope for the New Year also comes from the UK where despite the wave peaking more than two fold higher than previous waves, deaths remain lower due to many factors including existing immunity from vaccines and prior COVID.
Not the difference between cases and deaths this time.
For those of us in the US, we are much larger country and the rate of vaccination is lower and more uneven than the UK. We are at more risks & cannot afford to be complacent.
But if we can take all precautions for a bit, this wave will recede & we will lower the harm it causes
*Note
The country as a whole is so large geographically that it's better to consider the rise and fall of the wave in each state, rather than the whole of the US. The onset of the wave is going to occur at different times in the US - by a few weeks.
My parents & siblings are in India. I have numerous friends & family there. India had a massive delta wave. It cant afford another big wave. I hope that omicron is milder due to prior immunity.
India needs to speed up on boosters for elderly & immunocompromised.
Omicron doesn't seem to mind prior infection or vaccination in terms of ability to cause infection— but based on how it's playing out in South Africa and UK, severity will be lower because prior infection and vaccine induced immunity will continue to protect from severe disease.
One of the hardest things for me in this pandemic has been communicating the seriousness of COVID while also pointing out the good and hopeful signs.
With omicron, I'm both worried and hopeful.
Worry 👇 Hope 👇
We don't want to minimize the seriousness.
We also do not want to ignore the good signs.
The worry is that a lot of people getting Covid at the same time will cause huge problems: on its own and due to stress on an already stressed healthcare system even if omicron is milder.
The hope is at least partly due to prior immunity from infection and or vaccines, the death rate from omicron does appear lower. And while the omicron wave peaks faster and higher, it also seems to recede faster.
Breaking: FDA authorizes Paxlovid, a pill, for preventing severe disease in COVID patients 12 & older who are at high risk due to comorbidities or advanced age. I welcome this.
Why is this important? Spain is one of the best vaccinated countries in Europe: 80% fully vaccinated.
The US is only 60% fully vaccinated. UK is 70%.
It's a warning. 1/
The sharp rise in cases in Spain shows omicron can easily cause post vaccine breakthrough infections. Deaths are lower suggesting vaccines do protect against severe disease. 2/
Note that the lower deaths may be also partially due to a lag in cases and deaths. But there is no question omicron will stress out an already stressed out healthcare system.
People who need care for their illnesses won't get the care they need if hospitals are overwhelmed.
3/
When all is said and done, COVID vaccines have taken the sting out of COVID.
This is seen in cases versus deaths in UK: Deaths lower this time around even though cases skyrocket. Vaccines work.
Also seen in the US but not as striking as in the UK probably because a) heterogeneity: some states are doing like UK, some worse; b) we are not as well fully vaccinated (60% vs almost 70% UK); c) UK had a bigger death toll in January; d) they are ahead of us in the omicron wave.
This is even better illustrated in countries that are much more fully vaccinated than the US or UK. Note how deaths have stayed low with recent waves even as cases went up.