1/ Happy New Year! 🎉🍾
Let’s start the year off right by trying to improve #fintwit.
My humble contribution today is a small thread on how to identify (and then roundly ignore) finance Twitter grifters…
🧵👉👉
Let’s start the year off right by trying to improve #fintwit.
My humble contribution today is a small thread on how to identify (and then roundly ignore) finance Twitter grifters…
🧵👉👉
2/
1⃣ Grifters talk a lot about specific trades and (post-facto) outcomes.
Good follows talk about process, principles, and about how they might be wrong. Not as sexy but much more useful.
1⃣ Grifters talk a lot about specific trades and (post-facto) outcomes.
Good follows talk about process, principles, and about how they might be wrong. Not as sexy but much more useful.
3/
2⃣ Grifters make “predictions” that are hard to falsify. Even worse are the ones that tell you about predictions they made before. Even if accompanied by a timestamp, this is nearly worthless.
2⃣ Grifters make “predictions” that are hard to falsify. Even worse are the ones that tell you about predictions they made before. Even if accompanied by a timestamp, this is nearly worthless.
4/ Grifters think: “I’ll just retweet the half of my predictions that I was right about and I *know* they’ll ignore the other ones."
5/
3⃣ Grifters make insanely confident or large predictions. “Elliot-wave Ichimoku breakout pattern. Target SPX price of [20% higher].”
This is nuts. If you really could make good predictions this big in SPX, you’d be a trillionaire. SPX edges are measured in fractions of bps.
3⃣ Grifters make insanely confident or large predictions. “Elliot-wave Ichimoku breakout pattern. Target SPX price of [20% higher].”
This is nuts. If you really could make good predictions this big in SPX, you’d be a trillionaire. SPX edges are measured in fractions of bps.
6/
4⃣ Grifters make it feel like they’re on to a deep secret, and that they’re doing you a favor by telling you tiny pieces of it. This is basically the QAnon playbook applied to grifting.
4⃣ Grifters make it feel like they’re on to a deep secret, and that they’re doing you a favor by telling you tiny pieces of it. This is basically the QAnon playbook applied to grifting.
7/ We’re all suckers for a story, a mystery. The best grifters are *really* good at spinning a mystery around themselves. Don’t be fooled!
8/
5⃣ Grifters shitpost a lot. This doesn’t mean all shitposters are grifters, but it’s definitely a thing. The sales cycle is as old as the hills:
👆Know
✌️Like
🤟Trust
5⃣ Grifters shitpost a lot. This doesn’t mean all shitposters are grifters, but it’s definitely a thing. The sales cycle is as old as the hills:
👆Know
✌️Like
🤟Trust
9/ Shitposting is a way to get a lot of eyeballs. So it takes care of the “know” part of the equation.
If they’re decent at shitposting, then some fraction of readers will enjoy that. That takes care of the “like” part.
Finally the “trust” part. See 4⃣ above.
If they’re decent at shitposting, then some fraction of readers will enjoy that. That takes care of the “like” part.
Finally the “trust” part. See 4⃣ above.
10/
6⃣ Grifters set themselves up against “the man”, however they define it. Pro traders, market makers, people inside the marble hallways of Wall Street, etc.
This is another “trust” technique: “I’m on your side, telling you the stuff *they* don’t want you to hear.”
6⃣ Grifters set themselves up against “the man”, however they define it. Pro traders, market makers, people inside the marble hallways of Wall Street, etc.
This is another “trust” technique: “I’m on your side, telling you the stuff *they* don’t want you to hear.”
11/ What they’re actually telling you is the stuff *you* want to hear:
- that trading isn’t that hard
- that “people overcomplicate options”
- that there’s an easy way for the little guy to get ahead.
- that trading isn’t that hard
- that “people overcomplicate options”
- that there’s an easy way for the little guy to get ahead.
12/
7⃣ Finally and most importantly, grifters care a lot about acquiring viewers/customers.
Remember, they don’t actually have any value to offer you. Over time, the people that got suckered in will leave.
7⃣ Finally and most importantly, grifters care a lot about acquiring viewers/customers.
Remember, they don’t actually have any value to offer you. Over time, the people that got suckered in will leave.
13/ So grifters need to work hard to replace all that churn. Flash sales, limited time offers, special events, etc.
We’re so used to this stuff that we forget how artificial and stupid it is.
We’re so used to this stuff that we forget how artificial and stupid it is.
14/ Thoughts? What am I missing?
/END
/END
15/ Update based on the conversations I've had today due to this thread:
If you sell services/info/etc to retail, I certainly don't believe that *automatically* makes you a grifter.
Maybe 5-year-ago me did, but I've learned so much that has made me change that tune.
If you sell services/info/etc to retail, I certainly don't believe that *automatically* makes you a grifter.
Maybe 5-year-ago me did, but I've learned so much that has made me change that tune.
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