Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #fintwit

Most recents (24)

1. Quick thread on my journey

I started pooling my capital around the market highs in mid 2018. Markets were at highs and I patiently waited for a drawdown.

December 2018 FED raised interest rates - how dare they - market took about a 20% cut.

I timed the entry well.
2. Started off with $SNE and $NTDOY in their respective Japanese counters as I understood gaming and was comfortable dipping my toes in large caps.

Then I moved on to $MSFT $FB $JD - other large caps but widening my circle of competence to software, e-comm and social media
3. Generally held through most of 2019 as the market rallied - dabbled a little bit with trying to trade in and out of $SNE and $JD as price was only moving sideways

$MSFT - $100
$JD - $35
$FB - $138

Over just under two years, if I held, I would be up to 2x - TIME IN THE MARKET
Read 10 tweets
Get to know a Fintech Unicorn: Transferwise, .

Thread 👇

@TransferWise mission is to bring down the cost of international money transfer.

Founded in 2011 by two friends from Estonia, Transferwise is a Fintech Unicorn with total investments > $1B.
2/Business model

Compared to conventional money transfers where fees are hidden in marked-up exchange rates, Transferwise promises to be transparent.

It charges a fixed fee of $5 per transfer and .67% of the transfer amount.
Read 6 tweets
$DAX And now, "The Million Dollar Chart" 😂

It's a chart that I've divided into five charts

The explanations are all in the charts, and especially, every step has been commented in detail in my Twitter the last weeks


#DAX #DAX30 #fintwit

Many of you will remember every step, anyway everything is on my Twitter, I never delete any tweet

Chart 1) Complete Main Levels Thursday 30th July

Chart 2) The 3 buying zones for the OPEX commented on my Twitter
Chart 3) Thursday 30th July and immediately following days, traded section by section

Chart 4) Second part of the movements in this OPEX

Chart 5) Third part of the movements in this OPEX
Read 3 tweets
Market update:
Gamma is back to +3 sigma. While dark-pools have been running up alongside gamma, the change hasn't been enough to nerf its gamma's contribution... 1/
As a result, my combined trading model has been brought back from the dead and into very mild sell territory. One could be forgiven for contemplating the significance of this divergence and its similarity to February... 2/
As most in the #fintwit sphere will be aware, the Put/Call ratio has been flying at one of its highest levels and the averages appear to be stalling, which is never a good sign at these levels... 3/
Read 10 tweets
OK #fintwit friends. I know there are lots of bad things happening in the world, but I’m going to spend a little time today explaining why the Dept of Labor’s new advice rule is one of them.

Stop the #BadAdviceRule

So, what’s not to like about the DOL’s new #BadAdviceRule?

If you are a retirement saver, pretty much everything.

DOL has reinstated an outdated definition of fiduciary investment that is so full of loopholes financial firms will only be fiduciaries when they want to be. And they don’t often want to be.
Read 9 tweets
Como muitos aqui no #fintwit eu também estou investido em #Conga para os leigos #cogn3 , porquê essa ação não para de subir , Damodaran explica que nesta crise o mercado está olhando para empresas com Flexibilidade Operacional Image
Você deve estar se perguntando , o que isso significa?

Bem , flexibilidade operacional é a capacidade de uma empresa se reinventar em momentos de estresse como os dias de hoje em que as empresas enfrentam vários desafios operacionais
Começando pela cogna, pelo facto dela ser uma holding que possui varias empresas do segmento de educação, como os sistemas de ensino SER, Anglo, pH, Maxi, ETB . a rede de ensino móvel Edumobi, a AlfaCon Preparatórios para Concursos e a empresa de tecnologia educacional MSTech.
Read 10 tweets
Okay #volatility twitter and #pensions twitter, the #AIMCo post mortem on their VOLatility Trading Strategy (VOLTS) program was released last week.…

@bennpeifert @choffstein @profplum99 @PensionPulse
If you work in financial technology development/implementation please use this as motivation for your painful, but vital work

"The limitations of the risk system had previously been recognized, and its replacement had been identified and was in the process of being implemented"
A risk system is hard to implement because it needs fresh data feeds to all the live positions and prices. It is less hard to do a snapshot risk assessment and to react to its findings. Blaming technology is problematic here.
Read 7 tweets
Inspired by the excellent @breakingthemark blog, I did a six month experiment with geometric balancing. Full write-up here:…
Geometric balancing is an investment strategy that revolves around frequent re-balancing of a portfolio of (hopefully) uncorrelated assets. A clear framework and trading discipline make investment decisions very simple.
Diversification was basic. Four assets (stocks, bonds, gold, cash). Index funds only (SPY, TLT, GLD). Re-balancing was done daily based on weights calculated by the Breaking the Market blog (thank you!).
Read 12 tweets
A thread of more things I've learned from running @MorningBrew's Twitter account
1/ Follower growth is not exponential

Morning Brew averages +330 followers a day

but on June 16 we gained +1,640

five days later? only +73

the quality/quantity of your tweets is the sole driver of follower rates, even when you're a "big" account
2/ Trust your audience

it was tempting to add "wrong answers only" to the tweet below

but I trusted the MB audience to figure it out

and used responses of our own to prod them in the right direction

Read 12 tweets
1) Muita gente diz por aí que tudo estava caro antes do Corona e segue tão ou mais caro agora. Como sempre digo, a variável mais importante é a taxa de desconto. Com um juro real de 7-8% no fim de 2015/ínicio de 2016 tudo ficava caro. Com um juro real de 2-4% melhora bem.
2) O “There is no alternative” ou T.I.N.A. que vemos por aí vem da visão que há cada vez menos juro real em títulos soberanos no mundo e, portanto, os investidores precisam buscar ativos com retornos reais como ações e imóveis.
Seria razoável esperarmos uma valorização dos...
3) ativos conforme as taxas longas caiam. Essa valorização das ações e imóveis deveria ser dada pela mudança do valor presente devido à mudança de taxas, + o retorno acima da taxa de desconto no período e, por último, VPL de uma mudança na percepção de risco (uso CDS de 5/10y)..
Read 9 tweets
GV portfolio (thread 1)

small explanation of my junior portfolio reasoning, see my profile

1. #GOLD & SILVER timing model, option trading & hedging
2. junior #Mining Portfolio

1+2 = 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴²
(2) I spent 80% on timing research, 20% on stockpicking

Focus on juniors with proven assets, undervalued after a distressed environment, severe bear market, out of cash, debt issues, bad management etc…

Often these had severe share dilution, it didn’t work as timing was bad
(3) I prefer to get in at the ‘red dot’ on those.

I only have very few drill stories (1st peak of the mining cycle), as they dilute you and the real reward goes to the accredited investors (the richer ones who hold the warrants). That's reality.

Often you are late to the party.
Read 8 tweets
Some thoughts and rambling. I will be 50 soon. Hard to believe as it seems like just a few years ago I graduated college & left for Silicon Valley to chase a career & a girl. The career has changed many times & so did the girl.I started in accounting, then an auditor, later a tax
expert & honestly hated all three. Excelled as much as you can in a career you don't love & eventually found my passion later in life in the markets. I can tear apart a set of financials with the best, understand business & what it takes to make it work & these traits help me
evaluate at a level I feel confident enough to not only manage my money but the money of others. I have the right amount of skepticism, fear, mixed in with a little greed to make it work. My actively manged clients are doing well the last several years because honestly, I realize
Read 17 tweets
Larry Fink and @BlackRock are again in the spotlight. How did they become so powerful? Here’s a #fintwit thread with stories if you’ve time on your hands… (1/10)
BlackRock will oversee Fed programs stewarding billions of dollars, and will likely buy its own #ETFs, causing a potential conflict of interest… w/ @robinwigg (2/10)
This mirrors its role in 2008 when the Fed hired it in part because of its risk platform, Aladdin, now used by rival fund managers, insurers and big groups like Apple and Alphabet… w/ @OwenWalker0 (3/10)
Read 10 tweets
Vim pro twitter para entretenimento e observação. Não havia me manifestado até a crise do Covid-19. Porém faço questão de colocar aqui, de modo simplificado e resumido, o que sabemos cientificamente até agora voltado para não especialistas na área. #coronavirus #fintwit #Covid_19
Normalmente, um vírus ao nos contaminar, desencadeia uma resposta imune organizada - inicialmente chamada inata e evolui para resposta imune adaptativa. Isso se dá em poucos dias ou semanas e nos cura da infeccção viral.
Para que isso aconteça, é necessária uma coordenação entre a célula infectada e as células de defesa. Através de complicadas interações intracelulares e intercelulares há liberações de muitas citocinas ("hormônios" que regulam as resposta imune) de forma organizada e gradual.
Read 14 tweets
Ok, #Fintwit friends, steady yourself for this feedback from a bank client in Massachusetts: "Some FYI from Main Street USA".
And about these SBA loans that appear to be grossly underfunded at $350 billion.
Read 5 tweets
1/ If I owned a financial planning business, here's what I would be doing right now when it comes to client communications and Marketing:
1. Write one article per week (to be posted on my blog + emailed out to clients and prospects) summarizing the week’s events and give my thoughts/provide historical perspectives

#DigitalMarketing #WealthManagement #financialplanning #fintwit
2. Record a video on my phone (to be embedded with the article), going over the key points of that week’s post.
Upload video to Youtube and share across social media natively (meaning, don't link to Youtube, upload natively)

Here's how:…
Read 11 tweets
During this intense drawdown in SaaS stocks, we examine whether lower multiple names are safe havens.…

TL,DR: Higher multiples better in 2020...

...but lower multiples were better in last 4 drawdowns 2014-2019
We approached this at the direct comparable level (instead of quant baskets like revenue growth >20%) to see if a high versus low pair trade would have worked.

Ex #1 - $DDOG vs $NEWR: Datadog vs New Relic: High Multiple Outperforms (1 Month Delta: 370 bps)
Ex #2 - $BL vs $WK - Blackline vs Workiva: High Multiple Outperforms (1 Month Delta: 930 bps)
Read 11 tweets
1/ What now? A Thread

So, we find ourselves in an awful situation, not of our making, but we must accept the hand that we've been dealt and play the cards as best we can. Assuming that everyone reading this has taken all of the recommended precautionary measures--aggressive
2/ hand washing; self-quarantine; wearing gloves while handling packages, etc. we need to start focusing on trying to think of things that we can do to *help* each other and potentially--given what the #FinTwit membership looks like--other investors and the government solve
3/ this problem. One thing I think that could be potentially helpful to our #FinTwit community is to stop posting unsourced rumors, inflammatory or apocalyptic tweets or threads. I am NOT saying this isn't a very, very serious problem, it is. But I think we've reached a cascade
Read 19 tweets
A São Martinho (SMTO3) teve queda de pouco mais de 60% do high do ano, em linha com a PETR4. Inserida no setor de energia e produtora de etanol, à primeira vista parece estar acompanhando a queda do Brent. Porém, a SMTO também é produtora de açúcar e pode redirecionar parte 1/
da sua produção de cana do etanol (-30% YTD em U$) para o açúcar (-20% YTD em U$). Quanto foi a queda do Oil Brent YTD em U$?
Somente sua participação no passado na Coopersucar fez jus a uma indenização de R$2,1 bi (metade do mkt cap atual), tendo já sido recebidos R$ 362 mi 2/
e o restante com correção de IPCA+6% em 4 anos! Suas plantas ind. possuem um valor contábil de R$5,6 bi, sem considerar as terras próprias e canaviais. Estimamos que o mkt cap atual da empresa corresponda a 5,5x o lucro da safra 2019/20(balanço será encerrado final do mês) 3/
Read 7 tweets
1) A thankfulness thread.. cause well why not? I was trudging through the grocery store tonight - no bread, no eggs, no lots of things. I could feel the energy of the store downtrodden beaten, angry and then it hit me like a bolt of lightning. God we are blessed.
2) the realization changed my attitude and my thankfulness took hold of the store. I bought non-ripe bananas with a smile found some sliced cheese lost in the brisket section. Realized nobody and I mean nobody eats chicken hot dogs. Truthfully I didn’t get what I wanted.
3) I did get what I needed. My family will be well fed tonight and the night after that. The fact that I work hard to make that happen is simply a privilege that others round the world are not afforded. I expect my disappointing shopping trip would be seen as a bonanza elsewhere
Read 10 tweets
I've been through a few of these market downturns over the last 30 years so I felt obligated to share my experience. Call it a crash thread if you will. Here's what I know.
1) When you view a correction in the rear view mirror of charts/graphs, they look eerily similar. The simplistic/repeatable way the market melts up, blows out and whipsaws before trudging higher - looks like history repeating itself. In the moment however, they all feel different
2) Every time it happens you feel the jolt. There's fear, both external and internal. Adrenalin surges, your focus intensifies and every thing slows down. Or everything speeds up and you are paralyzed. I can't tell you which one you will be, but the best advisers embrace it
Read 20 tweets

Se a sua ideia é obter uma dica de ação p/ investir, qual a boa, ou qual o melhor trade p/ os próximos 90 dias, nem continua. Pare por aqui. O aqui propósito nunca foi e nunca será esse. Há pessoas muito melhores nisso do q eu.
2. Nos momentos onde vc é colocado à prova é que seu processo de investimento se consolida. É ali q vc aprende. Comprar e ver subir é fácil, não te ensina nada. Entender o pq vc comprou, o q está acontecendo com o preço (ñ necessariamente os valor), é a base do processo.
3. “Aquele que tem uma razão para viver pode suportar quase qualquer como.” – F. Nietzche

Um dos aspectos mais interessantes de trabalhar com investimentos é a quantidade e a variedade de personalidades que são relevantes como fonte de sabedoria.
Read 41 tweets
1) Thoughts on $ABT.CN. Super interesting. Trades 12x Fwd headline EBITDA - I think way cheaper on a lookthrough basis as well as on my numbers, MSD topline grower and will accelerate + also has blue sky potential product launching. #fintwit
2) Core tech / differentiation is that their software is plugged into the BIOs of nearly all OEM manufacturers. This means their software cannot be uninstalled or shut down. Legacy use-case is security (think track and trace)
3) Co was uninteresting for a very long time until last 12 months when new CEO joined - way better allocation of opex and vision of where co could become. $ABT.CN has both a value and growth part of thesis
Read 6 tweets
1/ Great ideas for int'l (non-US) stocks came up when @TMFInnovator asked and I thought I would run quick screens using @ycharts for further investigating.

2/ Of the above, these are the companies w/the highest revenue growth (when excluding $LK).

3/ When you throw $LK on that chart, the revenue growth is so high it just dwarfs the other stocks and, with the data so recent, it just makes the chart just look silly. (Note to self: Investigate $LK closer).
Read 14 tweets

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