Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #fintwit

Most recents (24)

1/ Great ideas for int'l (non-US) stocks came up when @TMFInnovator asked and I thought I would run quick screens using @ycharts for further investigating.

Specifically looking at: $ACN $BABA $BZUN $CNSWF $JD $JMIA $LK $LVMHF $MELI $NPSNY $SE $SHOP $SIEGY $STNE $TAL $TCEHY $UL
2/ Of the above, these are the companies w/the highest revenue growth (when excluding $LK).

$SE $MELI $STNE $SHOP $BABA
3/ When you throw $LK on that chart, the revenue growth is so high it just dwarfs the other stocks and, with the data so recent, it just makes the chart just look silly. (Note to self: Investigate $LK closer).
Read 14 tweets
O ZÉ COTINHA

Olha, eu nem sei direito que cunhou termo Zé Cotinha, mas de fato ele pegou entre os participantes do #fintwit.

Eu já até me peguei dando risada com alguns casos contados por aqui, mas a verdade é que não tem nada de engraçado. É trágico.
2) Se você está boiando no que estou falando, já explico:

O Zé Cotinha é aquele cotista de fundo que se comporta mal e é um terror para os gestores.

Mal "aplica" em um fundo e em poucos dias quer ver suas cotas se valorizarem.

Checa a performance quase que diariamente.
3) Reclama com o gestor porque não está entregando exatamente o que entregou no passado.

Envia emails para o comercial com frequência, perguntando qual o melhor o momento para "aplicar" ou pede para ser avisado com antecedência quando deve resgatar.
Read 18 tweets
Yesterday, I read a good rant from @JohnTraderYork on the current state of Fintwit ... A lot of it resonated and I wanted to chime in.
This is almost like a blog post, but since I don't write a blog, I'll make it a #fintwit #thread ... and we'll see where it all goes
I have been trading individually since 1995... At first, it was $2000 in an IRA. I put it all in $MSFT. I thought I would add. I did once. Then, it was always too expensive, and I kept on waiting. Of course, I wish I hadn't. My 1995-1997 $4000 total contributions are up nicely
But in the grand scheme of things, it's not "investing".
My first real #fintwit community was @YahooFinance boards. Talk about baby steps!!
My first real "investing group" was @Minyanville with @todd_harrison ... it's a sore topic for him, but lots of thankfulness for us.
Read 19 tweets
Thanks for putting up w/ me & waiting patiently😋

To get any of this, you need a basic understanding of new QCD anti-abuse rule. Basically, any QCDs are 'rejected' until total amount rejected = DEDUCTIBLE Trad'l IRA contributions made ≥ 70.5

Behold the glitch in the Matrix!🤓
TL/DR Version: By forgoing the Traditional IRA deduction to which one might otherwise be entitled, it's possible to "trade" pre-tax Traditional IRA money for after-tax Traditional IRA money. 🤷‍♂️

Our Tax Code is absolutely ridiculous!🤯
A few additional thoughts:

1) This is rough/not edited yet, so don't beat me up on spelling/grammar issues.

2) I'll have a LOT more to say about the anti-abuse rule and planning in a future Kitces.com article

3)👏#Fintwit! The GIF replies to original tweet are 🤣
Read 4 tweets
1/ The Tesla and EV growth story is a complete myth and this is why! Let's compare Tesla to the competition $GM. Through Q3 of 2019 $TSLA had sold a whopping 255,561 cars worldwide. In Q3 alone, Tesla sold 97,186 cars. This was a Q/Q increase 1.92% over Q2 sales of 95,536. $tslaq
2/ Oh yeah you read that right. A hypergrowth company that opened up markets in Japan, Australia, Britain, all of Europe and China had Q/Q growth of 1.92%. Wait it gets even better. Tesla in Q4, 2018, sold 90,966 cars. Let's do the math together 97,186-90,966=6,220 more cars.
3/ Take 6,220 cars and divide by 90,966 and wait for it, Tesla sales increased by 6.8% over last years record Q4 quarter. You say that was only predominately North America. Bingo, after opening up the whole freaking world market Tesla's sales only rose 6.8%. Still 255,561
Read 18 tweets
/1 Serious question for #FinTwit.

I would love to access two kinds of stock market data:

[a] raw data for major indexes and individual stocks

[b] summary stats of 10-Q and 10-K filings, such as Jim Chanos' return on invested capital, PEG, &etc.

What are the best sources?
/2 HT @FVNate and others who have already tried to help me with this question ... YCharts was unsatisfying at best, but perhaps I'm trying too hard to find one-stop-shop?

HT @GlobalProTrader @lecontewealth @77cyko @VlanciPictures @VincentLanci @SamanthaLaDuc @CordovaTrades
@FVNate @GlobalProTrader @lecontewealth @77cyko @VlanciPictures @VincentLanci @SamanthaLaDuc @CordovaTrades /3 My motivation is simple -- I reached out to @StockCharts and they told me I couldn't calculate the difference between a 34-day and 5-day simple moving average. I clearly need an API feed of some kind...

HT @DebraRo91758510 @LindaRaschke @GregMannarino
Read 7 tweets
A running thread of things that @Twitter could do to unlock value for users. Will add to overtime. Please feel free to retweet and reply with your own, most of these below I have just taken and summarized from others. In no particular order. 1/♾ #JustKidding 🤔 or am I?
@Twitter I drafted a tweet on my phone but of course, can't access "draft's" on the desktop. So lets maybe start there. The desktop and @Tweetdeck version should be MORE robust than the mobile app not less. Tweetdeck, for example, has no bookmarks, emoji's, live video, polls, gif's, etc
@Twitter @TweetDeck There are SO MANY great meaningful quotes, threads, replies, and conversations that vanish into the Twitter ether, drowned out by hot takes, snark, and 280 character riffs on what some influencer or politician just did. Find a way to collect and resurface this treasure trove.
Read 80 tweets
So yesterday I promised some more thoughts on $TWTR, here goes. The stock's move was really frustrating, but the results were more bittersweet than meets the eye.

cc @jack @nedsegal
This Q should've been a victory lap for the Twitter team on a major accomplishment. mDAU growth had stalled in the HSD/LDD range for 5 years. 17% is a major change. w/ very little inertia on sequential growth, the FY number will be even better
Notably this acceleration happened without any major events or catalysts to spark engagement. This was the result of 4 years of hard work trying to focus Twitter around its essence--a platform to engage in one's interests. That's why all of us on #FinTwit are here.
Read 16 tweets
@threadreaderapp Repo mkt has been in trouble since Sept 16.

Looking @ US banks w/ rate sensitive derivatives, the chart of Goldman Sachs looks the worst.

Goldman also has the largest interest rate derivatives book @ $42.3 T.

ibanknet.com/scripts/callre…
#fintwit #gold @ForexStopHunter
After a decade of loose money suspending debt bubble economy & mkts, #Fed central planners chop Money Supply to 2008 collapse level.

Rate increases of 2% on $72T of debt drive need for added $1.4T cash for interest payments ea. year w/ time.

#fintwit
...And, interest rate increases put some of the $210T of Bank-held interest rate derivatives in-the-money compounding cash demand in a market/economy already starved for cash.

Inter-bank lending dries, Repo borrowers begging for cash.

#fintwit #gold
Read 16 tweets
-

Repo Market size: $5T

US Bank holdings of interest rate derivatives: $210T

(Goldman: $42.2T; JPM $39.5T; CITI $34.4T; etc)

Understand where this is going now that Fed has collapsed Money Supply for > 2.5 years.

zerohedge.com/markets/fed-in… #fintwit #gold @LouDobbs @MacroMorning
@LouDobbs @MacroMorning Now that the #Fed has collapsed Money Supply, it will print $Trillions upon $Trillions to try to control interest rates - & it will fail.

The long bond holders will be hammered both on yield as well as by currency debasement.

zerohedge.com/economics/worl… #fintwit #gold
@LouDobbs @MacroMorning US banks hold $210T of interest rate Derivatives on their books.

As #Fed tightens (which it has for >2.5 years) after a decade of loose money, these rate bets become destabilized.

" why are banks still so desperate for liquidity...?"

$210T... scale.

zerohedge.com/markets/feds-s…
Read 8 tweets
0/ A compilation of all (well most) #threads I have posted on #FinTwit in no particular order. I will keep adding new threads I post on this main thread and pin it to my profile. No reccos implied or otherwise. Share & discuss if you find it useful ...
1/ On investing mistakes, diligence findings and lessons ... this will be updated from time to time ...
2/ Why Indian FMCG / consumer cos seemed to me to be overvalued in Sep ‘18
Read 15 tweets
1/n Vamos falar de #fundamentos das #empresas nos #investimentos? Já pensou em como o #ciclodevida da empresa que você investe pode afetar sua tese de investimentos? Mais do q isso, como sua carteria pode estar sob o efeito dos ciclos?
Depois cada um faz o teste na sua carteira.
Sempre estudamos que o ciclo de vida ocorre ao longo do tempo, logo empresas nascem, crescem, estabilizam e morrem. Nem sempre é assim. Anos atrás (muitos) pesquisadores vêm propondo que o ciclo de vida é orgânico, q as empresas podem ir e vir entre os estágios de #ciclo de vida.
Existem várias metodologias desenvolvidas nas pesquisas científicas, mas essa vem se destacando, pela combinação dos fluxos de caixa das empresas (paper da Victoria Dickinson de 2011 e alguns livros). Por favor, não fique "cego" com o método, é uma metodologia e pode ter falhas.
Read 10 tweets
Good morning all! 🙂 Morning in Copenhagen - listening to Ludovico while I'm updating analyses and family sleeps. Fantastic piece of music: #AllisGood
Time for some #HZupdates. Let's take a look at the market from the way I see it. Where is that deflation, I have been forecasting? Did CBs succeed to do their magic and eliminate that threat? What about the Kondratiev's winter - over/done? Stay tuned! 🙂
AUDUSD is inflation gauge. Rally=inflation up; Decline=inflation down. LT perspective looks like this. Decline in 2008 = wave A. Rally up to 2011 = wave B. We have since been in wave C. Wave 5 will take us to ~0.5. Note the horizontal line. When this goes -->free fall #HZupdates
Read 28 tweets
Chicago Fed @ChicagoFed conference papers dropped. Going to be a long day.

federalreserve.gov/conferences/co…
@ChicagoFed First up, review of current #monpol framework (federalreserve.gov/conferences/fi…)

Key conclusion: @federalreserve should guide rate cuts soon and more aggressively since guidance policy has a bigger effect on economy today.
@ChicagoFed @federalreserve Second paper on the agenda (as mentioned by @jeannasmialek federalreserve.gov/conferences/fi…) titled "Maximum Employment"

Key takeaway: u-rate doesn't measure labor market tightness; recommend a new metric. Basically this is the Fed's LMCI come again (actually, come around a third time).
Read 25 tweets
1/Great first day of presentations and meeting new people at @TheCapitalCamp. As an example, I met Jace Pando (@pandocole) who just got out of HS last year, but instead of going right to colleage headed to Kenya to work on projects to help improve the country.
2/ He's next heading to Hungary to do similar work. He found out about @TheCapitalCamp right here on #FinTwit. I think this is one of the best features of @Twitter, as I also got to see lots of friends that I met here first. It's things like this that I think show
3/ off the best potential for our #FinTwit community.

Well done @patrick_oshag and @BrentBeshore and the great team that made this happen!
Read 4 tweets
Hi #fintwit 😎 We are approaching a watershed moment in markets. Final deflationary phase of Kondratiev's winter is about to play out. Huge implications for #EUR, #Gold, #SP500, #DXY etc. I have some new interesting followers - hence something extra in this week's #HZupdates
#Kondratiev's winter is a period where #Velocity of Money drops which creates a disinflationary economic environment, where growth is subdued due to #debt levels. Since ~2000 we have been in this winter - and are still to see a range of "major economic events" unfold #HZupdates
In fact, we have never left the #Financial #Crisis. We have only been bouncing in the great "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis" of this #Kondratiev's winter. This can be observed from the #Deflation Gauges #Copper, #XAU, AUD, EUR. We are about to see wave C develop #HZupdates
Read 21 tweets
Sunday night #FinTwit has spoken. The good news is that by releasing the results of this simulation, I'll surely motivate people who don't like quants to change their votes, thus influencing the outcome. But that way, everyone can still have fun.
Thursday, March 21 @ RLS Wealth Management Pavilion
(1) @Wu_Tang_Finance vs.
(4) @BagholderQuotes
Projected winner (89% probability) @Wu_Tang_Finance
Saturday, March 23 @ StockTwits Stadium
(2) @RampCapitalLLC vs.
(3) @RudyHavenstein
Projected winner (98% probability) @RampCapitalLLC
Read 9 tweets
If twitter had been around in the 40's and 50's...

$SPX $AMZN $FB
Think I am getting the hang of it.....

$SPX $EEM $AMZN
Waiting to see this posted somewhere...

$SPX $EEM $MSFT
Read 29 tweets
Good morning to all 😀Interesting weeks/months ahead of us as my deflationary scenario plays out. Will have massive consequences for currencies, gold, equities etc. I keep my subscribers updated closely on Daily/Weekly updates. But for now - stay tuned for some #HZupdates 👍
"#Deflation" or "#Disinflation" have been my call for a long time. We are not out of Kondratiev's winter yet. We haven't seen the all events which unfold during K's winter. Still to come Pension Funds Crisis, Currency Crisis, Run from Paper Money ...and War #HZupdates
And "#Deflation" outlook is clear in the charts imo. I look primarily to #AUDUSD and #Copper for guidance. Observe this chart of #Copper. Major ABC pattern. Length of C can be set by the irregular pattern indicating low in Copper below 2008-levels = deflation in 2019 #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
1/ Economics is, after all, a social science, and as such is beholden to the unintended consequences brought about by the actions of the observer as much as by those of the subject being observed. Imagine if we designated responsibility for...
2/ ...precipitation and cloud cover to executives at “The Weather Channel?” Even if this new politburo had the best of intentions, would you feel comfortable ceding control of the weather to a group of 12, unelected, and highly fallible, human beings? We don't think so. And if...
3/ ...you believe the weather system is not a fair comparison to the system of money and credit, we would beg to differ. The weather, as well as the economy, are both chaotic systems. They are dynamic. They are organic. They are not well-oiled machines to be...
Read 5 tweets
Hi all 😀It has been a good year! 2019 will be difficult for world economy. A lot of fall outs ahead from disinflationary environment. Get ready for last #HZupdates from the old year 👍
As I laid out at the beginning of 2018, we have seen a rally in #DXY. The USD rally is not over yet. I expect the rally to continuing into 2019 - reaching min. 107 before the rally is over, This will have deflationary consequences across various markets #HZupdates
#EURUSD topped early 2018 and has dropped to a low of 1.121 by Nov. But - this is not the end of this major Bear market for Euro. LT-target remains 0.91 likely to be reached by Q2/Q3 2019 #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
Last week in markets was truly exciting! Some important signals were provided - which sets us up for some truly great trades 😀Before all leaves FinTwit to relax and enjoy during Christmas - I will provide you with some #HZupdates. Stay tuned! 👍
#EURUSD has been showing a lot of weakness. The LT-perspective is same as it has been for a very long time. Target of ~0.91 to be reached some time during 2019. Coming decline will bring about massive capitulation #HZupdates
#EURUSD - I have had 2 scenarios for how price will develop coming days/weeks. This scenario seems to hold most credibility. We could see small bounce next week - but soon EURUSD will crash in a strong wave lower. Great opportunity to go short is closing in #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
1/To all my friends on #FinTwit, I kid around a lot on here because life should always have room for laughter, but I've just seen something that reminded me we all need to be absolutely serious, sober and realistic when evaluating investment opportunities, especially those
2/ that stray from basic long-only, non-leveraged strategies. I know so many talented investors in non-conventional strategies, and am not at all opposed to them, but please, please do your homework thoroughly before investing your money with *any* outside manager,
3/ my firm included. There are serious risks involved with any risk assets, and you've really got to do a deep vetting of any firm you're thinking about giving your hard earned money. If you don't feel qualified to do it on your own, by all means hire a qualified advisor to do
Read 4 tweets
Good morning from #Copenhagen, #Denmark 😀Another exciting week in the market. Hope you are up for some #HZupdates. We are imo getting closer to an inflection point where things will start to develop fast. Stay tuned! 👍
😀 I would like to see how many #FinTwit users read my #HZupdates on a weekly basis. Will you please answer by a simply "yes" or "no" to the question: I read #HZupdates every weekend. Thanks! 👍
#SP500 I think we pot. have a full count for US #equities. I see a test of the lower trendline (yellow mark) as a given. How successful that test turns out will give us a lot of info. #HZupdates
Read 11 tweets

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