huf.hl Profile picture
Jan 2, 2022 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Today was a very good day for the $ReFi farming portfolio. We will v soon be close to 165 ETH. A casual stream of thoughts before bed...
1. I'm much more comfortable with how our risk buckets are spread across farming strategy types. For those that haven't read it - check out our medium articles and how we go about allocating YOUR funds (based on 14d and 30d realised volatility) Image
2. Can't be too (short-term) outcome-focused in this long term game, but I am glad we listened to some of our advisors and parked some USDC stables into hundred.finance, since the majority of the (high) APY is paid in native token incentives. Image
3. Yes - farming advisors. As nice as it is to be some kind of 'hero' farmer, such titles create problems down the line (key man risk/ego etc). We are very open to listening to DeFi professionals on where to park capital and will continue to do so.
4. I'm really happy we took some profits and bought and staked $LQDR pre xmas. Liquid driver gives us leveraged exposure to the bullish #Fantom ecosystem whilst earning a great APR in various tokens from the revenue sharing wallet. Image
5. Our broader investment process starts with identifying macro narratives and then placing our bets with strong conviction. This has been the case with $NEWO ever since we had @rektfoodfarmer on the first podcast.
6. In particular, we like the narrative that $NEWO is fundraising and incubating new DeFi protocols such as $BTRFLY, and operating in a truly revolutionary manner. Yes the token unlocks are worth keeping an eye on, but the 800-1000% APY on providing LP is worth the IL risk. Image
7. As we grow our network in the DeFi community we look forward to getting EARLIER access to new launches and are happy to allocate a very small amount of capital (say 2-3 ETH) with the chances of exponential returns (50-100x). The alpha on exclusive discord groups is insane. Image
8. Some have asked about our spot and staked $YFI and $CRV. Yes these are higher risk directional plays but are taken due to a deep understanding of the tokenomic revamps and utility and we only purchase on market corrections (e.g. we bought $CRV sub $5)

thedefiant.io/yearn-tokenomi…
9. We're very happy with the FTM-TOMB vaults on reaper.farm that have made us over 15 ETH of profit. We've trimmed a bit just so that we never have too much portfolio exposure in any one vault. Image
10. I'm really LOVING the crowdsourced farming interactions with our community.

Today alone I've discussed:

a) wFTM>yvmFTM>MIM,
b) bentCVX
c) MAI+av3crv

with different $ReFi investors. Wisdom of the crowds baby!
discord.gg/H8uCvZdb Image

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More from @hufhaus9

Jul 9, 2024
LEVERAGE. ⚔️

It's a powerful thing that can be used to create generational wealth.

But MOST of the time it leads to liquidation emails.

How can we remain leveraged long whilst minimising this risk?

Some thoughts below... Image
📍The Liquidation Problem

Of the $2.4bn of deposits onto Hyperliquid, guess what total notional has been liquidated? (hint: image)

Basically, traders are losing their margin AND their unrealised gains.

How can we keep our gains when you have the right view? Image
📍Pair Trading - a solution?

Pair trading allows you to lever up on your asset views while reducing short-term liquidation risks because the longs and shorts are cross-margined.

It capitalizes on the unique way correlation works in crypto.

Me and @omazett did the maths..
Read 8 tweets
Jun 20, 2024
Here's a statistical approach for thinking about pair trading ✍️

This framework might help you no matter what your strategy is.

Let's take a deeper look at $ARB / $LDO, and how you might profit from this... Image
There are 2 ways of pair trading:

1) Narrative based
2) Statistical Arbitrage

Most trades on Pear Protocol are narrative trades i.e. you build a story why Asset A will outperform Asset B (in any market condition) and enter a long/short pos.

Here we'll focus on 2) Stat-Arb Image
Q1 - "Is there a statistical relationship between these two assets?"

Usually we jump to correlation for this (see below image lol).

More important than correlation, is this relationship between $ARB and $LDO constant over time? AND does it mean revert when it deviates away? Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 17, 2023
wtf does this mean? and will it impact the price of $BTC?

some thoughts below...
1. If you, as a retail buyer want to buy $IBTC (the iShares spot bitcoin ETF), then you'd go to your broker/online platform and swap your $ for shares in the ETF. The broker would go and buy the shares on the exchange (Nasdaq) on your behalf. Easy. Image
2. This is what we call the 'secondary' market. The shares already exist, and you can buy them at the market price. But what if there are no ETF shares available in the secondary market?
Read 14 tweets
Jun 26, 2023
These are the key dates and timeline for the BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF

This is how I'm positioning over the coming weeks...
Recap: Grayscale sued the SEC last yr for not letting them convert GBTC to a spot ETF

The court decision is due out any time in the next few wks/months (the clock is ticking) and paves the way for a potential spot ETF *if* successful

BlackRock filing now is NOT a coincidence.
Let's talk dates and trading.

June 26-30: $BTC market has quite a lot of option OI expiring this Friday.

View: Chop, with looming Binance headline risk.

Positions: flat w/ stink bids between $28.4 - $29.2k due to long liquidations and/or ARK/21shares ETF rejection.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 25, 2023
People don't really understand what Blackrock is, or what they do.

So let's go inside...
But first a little about their founder and CEO Larry Fink, since it will be important later
Larry joined Wall St in 1976. He was smart and made money. He pioneered the idea of debt securitization (packaging up different loans as bonds). He then ran the trading desk for those Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Yes, those bonds that led to the 2008 GFC 🤯

*smiles*
Read 26 tweets
Mar 12, 2023
Bull and Bear Scenarios (in fictional quotes):

🐂

"SVB depositors will be made whole" - FDIC/Treasury

"We have received the full $3.3bn" - Circle

"Due to recent events in the banking sector, we felt it was prudent to postpone this month's planned rate hike to April" - Fed
🐻

"50% 'advanced dividend' for uninsured depositors, rest later" - FDIC

"People were trading USDC in anticipation of profits, and thus it's a security" - Gary Gensler

"They are bailing out Big Tech and Silicon Valley with your money!" - Donald Trump

"Long" - Jim Cramer
There's also "SVB has been acquired by XYZ bank" 🐂

I'm positioning for a squeeze higher. Buying $1500 strike 17 March 2023 expiry calls at 0.02 ETH ($29) per option
Read 5 tweets

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