I agree with @chrisgrey on most things Brexit, but not this.
I strongly suspect that DF & BJ ALWAYS intended to renege on the oven ready deal and they only signed it because they knew a platform of "no deal" in GE19 would be fatal.
I strongly suspect that they...
1/
I strongly suspect that DF & BJ ALWAYS intended to renege on the oven ready deal and they only signed it because they knew a platform of "no deal" in GE19 would be fatal.
I strongly suspect that they...
1/
always planned to arrange some Loyalist violence ( much as British Governments of the 70's and 80's did with the Miami Show Band massacre, the Dublin bombing and the Pat Finucane assassination ) and use this to justify triggering A16.
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2/
This also explains the strangely dilatory border infrastructure preparation in Belfast and Larne between 2019 and 2021 - why build something you never intended to use?
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But the US got wind of it in April or May and issued a Demarche in very early June.
This meant DF & BJ had to improvise a Plan B for triggering A16, on the hoof.
Using "economic difficulties" was problematic, because NI is outperforming every other region in the UK.
4/
This meant DF & BJ had to improvise a Plan B for triggering A16, on the hoof.
Using "economic difficulties" was problematic, because NI is outperforming every other region in the UK.
4/
And "trade diversion" was thwarted by Sefcovic with a generous offer on facilitations and meds.
So ... the Plan B strategy they rolled out in DF's "command paper" in July was to ask for a concession so ridiculous that they KNEW Sefcovic could never grant it.
5/
So ... the Plan B strategy they rolled out in DF's "command paper" in July was to ask for a concession so ridiculous that they KNEW Sefcovic could never grant it.
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Yup, they objected to ECJ oversight of the NIP, suddenly, 20-odd months after agreeing to it.
Explainer: The whole essence of the NIP is that the EU is granting NI the privilege of access to the EU Single Market, to allow the UK to brexit without breaching its GFA terms.
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Explainer: The whole essence of the NIP is that the EU is granting NI the privilege of access to the EU Single Market, to allow the UK to brexit without breaching its GFA terms.
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To suddenly say "thanks for letting NI play in your SM, but we object to an ECJ role in the protocol that governs how it does so" is just plain crazy. ("Thanks, FIFA, for letting England play in your World Cup, but we want the English FA to set the rules for all our games.")
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DF & BJ must have thought they had a super gosh terriffic whizzo plan to trigger A16... but then the US intervened again, basically saying "we don't care what lame-assed excuse you dream up - if you trigger A16 for ANY reason, we are gonna make you regret it"
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I think that's when DF decided to quit.
He waited until after the Shropshire byelection of course, but he had the look of a 2 day old party balloon for weeks before that.
And OF COURSE he didn't mention Brexit renegotiation failure in his letter - HE was responsible!
9/9
He waited until after the Shropshire byelection of course, but he had the look of a 2 day old party balloon for weeks before that.
And OF COURSE he didn't mention Brexit renegotiation failure in his letter - HE was responsible!
9/9
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