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Jim Grace Profile picture
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19 Oct, 5 tweets, 1 min read
August 2019: "yellowhammer" leak. No-deal brexit mean a legal limbo that would cause shortages of food, meds, lorries, fuel. Energy prices up & security down. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/ope…
A terrified Johnson agreed to the oven-ready deal, NIP and all...

1/5
But now yellowhammer seems to be happening anyway, despite the TCA; it turns out an absence of lorry drivers, warehousemen and care workers will stuff things up almost as badly as an absence of legal framework for doing international business...

So what can Johnson do now?

2/5
Hmmm...well... if yellowhammer is happening *anyway* - caused by "no-staff" as opposed to "no-deal", then sod it! - he may as well go for no-deal after all and blame the beastly EU, rather than his own crappy oven-ready deal and his own self-harming Brexit.

3/5
So how do you go from "oven-ready deal" to "no-deal", but blame someone else?

Got it! Invent some totally unreasonable, impossible demand - like "NI stays in SM (to not need IE border) but does not have to obey CJEU decisions on SM issues" - then flounce off when rejected.

4/5
All you need is a corrupt, supine state broadcaster and complicit Fleet Street, then 67M mugs will swallow the story without blinking.

Sorted.

5/5

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More from @mac_puck

Jim Grace Profile picture
13 Oct
Q. Why did Frostie choose Lisbon for his "haka" to the EU?
A. Because the brexit press has turned "Lisbon" into a Pavlovian trigger word for Brexiters - like "Rosebud" for Doberman-pinschers - to shut down the frontal lobes and switch to conditioned reflex.

1/4
Q.Why did he call it in such haste?
A. Because, unexpectedly, Sefcovic was about to offer major concessions on SPS, medicines, and representation of NI citz. He desperately had to find some other issue to manufacture a crisis out of: CJEU jurisdiction over EU law in NI.

2/4
Q. Why did Sefcovic show such willingness to compromise on the other issues? Frostie was *certain* his usual mixture of insults, lies and provocations would result in the "no" he was looking for.
A. Sefcovic talked directly to NI bizz & community. They asked and he listened.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jim Grace Profile picture
12 Oct
bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…
Apparently the report is "critical".

Really it's as close to whitewash as Jeremy Hunt dared go without descending into farce.

Not a whitewash - a plea bargain. Where the perp admits a lesser offence in order to avoid being convicted of a major one.

1/
The report admits that the Government was slow and chaotic and "guilty of groupthink", but the truth is far, far, worse.

The truth is Johnson planned to let 500K die, but was stopped by Emmanuel Macron in March 2020, not a moment too soon.

Lets look at the evidence:

2/
Exhibit A: imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
Between the 22nd and 24th January HMG was informed that Covid has an R-0 of 1.5 to 3.5. This means without lockdown 50M Brits would catch it.

Exhibit B: imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
By 10 Feb HMG knew IFR = 1%, meaning 500K would die.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Jim Grace Profile picture
10 Oct
They're at it again:

Bent MP's and a delapidated former broadcaster are out lobbying against renewables, because... er ... gas is proving to be expensive and insecure.

This is like upping your alcohol intake because of an ALD diagnosis. (As one of 'em seems to be doing 😉)

1/
Let's be clear: gas price volatility is due to energy companies not locking down purchases far enough in advance, because generally buying day to day costs less than 6 months or year ahead. Then one day it doesn't. But that's OK; vast profits in the good times then go pop

2/
leaving the customers or ultimately the taxpayer to take the hit.

The cure is not to swerve away from renewables; the cure is to regulate energy companies to force them to hedge properly against future wholesale price variations.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Jim Grace Profile picture
8 Oct
Could this be a bit more Brexit joy, folks?

intelliphants.com/e-coli-scare-a…

E. coli scare as tap water in thousands of homes in Surrey and Kent could be contaminated

Hmm... that sounds familiar...
Where have I read something similar?

1/4
Oh yes! "Yellowhammer"
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6…

Apparently, "vital chemicals are timed to arrive ‘just in time’ and cannot be stockpiled as they are too volatile, meaning water plants would have to turn off the taps as soon as they ran out or risk poisoning millions"

2/4
And we know the water companies have run out of sewage treatment chemicals, which is why they are pumping shit into all our rivers.

Is it too far-fetched to suggest Brexit "supply chain issues" might have disrupted drinking water treatment chemical supplies, too?

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jim Grace Profile picture
8 Oct
Morning @chrisgreybrexit .
Do you remember how various brexit watchers said in December 2020 that the deal, thin as it was, would avoid yellowhammer? The frog would be boiled not run over. You described a slow puncture; I suggested occult bleeding.

1/
Hmm. The last few weeks are looking a lot more like Yellowhammer after all! Was the deal thinner than we thought? Was the UK even less prepared / more mismanaged than we thought?

I reckon it's Covid. I reckon before Covid we were looking at Brexit reducing *inflow of workers

2/
We would get 150K fewer young, hardworking Poles, Romanians etc, every year and after 10 years our economy would be 1.5M short. But Covid created a >1M *outflow*, effectively overnight.

And this turned your slow puncture into a 90mph blow-out.

3/
thenationalnews.com/world/europe/p…
Read 7 tweets
Jim Grace Profile picture
28 Sep
The brexiters have been lying again...

This time, it is "no HGV training last year because of covid"
But here is the official data.
gov.uk/transport/driv…

How many DQC's in Apr 20-Apr 21? : 80,442

Compare with 2017-18? : 73,081

And 2016-17? : 73,426

Hmm...

1/5
What about 2019-2020?

398,414

Eh? Wha..!!?

It turns out CPC was originally introduced in 2009, with a deadline of Sept 2014. Meaning a massive rush in 2014 and, because it runs out after 5 years, another rush in 2019 ( like an echo in the microwave background 😉).

2/5
The graph of monthly DQC's shows nothing unusual about April 2020 to April 2021 at all; it was a typical non-rush year.

Also, using the monthly totals, we can construct another graph showing the current number of valid DQC's held by UK drivers.

Interesting, eh?

3/5
Read 6 tweets

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