Thread by @DefenseNigeria

Emmanual Macron has once again proposed working with Nigeria to fight insecurity in the Lake Chad basin and the entire stretch of the Sahel region. Such effontry after the Maskirovska!!

For those wondering what the Maskirovska is, let us revisit the period when dozens of

..Boko Haram fighters attacked a Chadian army base in Boma, killing 100 Chadian soldiers in an attack that spanned eight hours. Attempts to reinforce the base with hundreds of troops and rein in air support was supposedly thwarted by Boko Haram, who after 8 hours carted away

cache of weapons and escaped on speedboats.

It's hard to pick which is more incredulous, Boko Haram attacking a Chadian army base for 8 hours with Chadian and French forces powerless to stop it, or the fact that people actually believed this ..well timed maskirovska.

To bring clarity to this argument lets use the February 2019 incident as a template.

A convoy of 50 heavily armed pickup trucks from Libya were enroute to Ndjamena, Chad with the aim of overthrowing Idris Derby. They never made it to Chadian soil. Mirage fighter jets, launched

from bases in N'djamena intercepted the rebels in the Libyan desert. About 50 pickup trucks were destroyed in the operation.

The ability of France to timely and effectively respond to threats anywhere in West Africa is due to its myriad of forward deployed military bases.

The number of French military bases in West Africa is a staggering TWELVE. In Chad alone France has two forward operating bases in Faya-Largeau with one eye on the border with Libya. These military bases represents the symbol of French sphere of influence in Africa.

They have strengthened France's ability to protect her economic, political and security interest and has shown its willingness to use military force to ensure its interests are not put at risk. France also has a Reaper drone base in Niger purportedly to help tackle Boko Haram

Enter Lac Province, Chad. The hitherto capital of ISWAP. For years ISWAP found a safe haven in this island. The distance between Lac Province and Chadian and French outposts is so close you can see Lac Province right across the body of water. Yet for 5 years ISWAP used

Lac Province as a staging base to launch attacks in Nigeria, with the full assurance of a peaceful safe haven to return to in Chad.

Mirage fighter jets from bases in Ndjamena repeatedly hit targets in Libya 500km away while ISWAP was operating a State within a State

in Chadian territory and not a single recorded French or American drone strike on their camps. Till this day.

The proximics between ISWAP camps and these bases borders on ridiculous. It will take less than 10 minutes for an aircraft doing 350mph

from bases in Ndjamena to reach ISWAP camps in Lac Province. You can see Lac Province right across the body of water. The topography is flat and featureless, ideal for drone strikes. How in the world were they able to operate and launch attacks in Nigeria with impunity ?

The answer is simple. Geopolitics.
A destabilized, distracted or divided Nigeria will put to rest the potential challenge from the only country capable of challenging France's status as the most influential external power in West Africa.

Now to the MASKIROVSKA

Dozens of Boko Haram fighters on "speedboats" reportedly attacked a Chadian army base that houses 500 soldiers on an island base in Boma peninsula for EIGHT straight hours. Hundreds of Chadian troops sent to reinforce the base were repelled. The French air force was rendered

powerless in the face of the Boko Haram attack. The same air force that intercepted and decimated a convoy of 50 guntrucks 500km away in the Libyan desert and all French and Chadian forces could do was watch helplessly for 8 hours until the insurgents got bored,

carted away caches of munitions, put them on speedboats and escaped.

This is the story that was sold to the world. And thus began the drama fit for Hollywood.

The Chadians deftly deployed a public relations campaign. Derby declared operation "Wrath Of Boma" in response

to the attack. Photos and video of Derby in military garb discussing the operation with military leaders proliferated on social media. Both Derby

and Macron used this publicity to pressure the Nigeria. Derby complained to French media that Nigeria has not been carrying its weight in the fight against Boko Haram. He even pronounced a deadline by which Chadian troops would withdraw and return to Chad should Nigerian forces

refuse to takeover conquered Nigerian territory, prompting a fierce rebuttal from the Nigerian army to the shenanigans. The media exposure helped both Macron and Derby to bolster popular support for the operations within Chad.

Notice ISWAP found safe haven in the border

area closest to Nigeria but not so in areas close to Ndjamena. The gimmick of Idriss Deby was his unexpressed pact with whoever claims to be in charge of that area, State actors or non State actors or the combination of both. He remained very much diplomatic and cunning about it

proving very much in charge than the Nigerian government. The hyperbolic statements made by President Deby, claiming the killing of 1000 fighters was not only exaggerated, but was distorted by indiscriminate killing, whether international or not of the islands civilian settlers

The claim that numerous Boko Haram hideouts were identified and destroyed and 1000 Boko Haram fighters were killed was largely exaggerated and unrealistic. Deby himself stated not a single BH fighter still exists on the Chadian portion of the Basin.

Given the bold claims of Chadian troops in Nigeria made by Derby, a verification quest is in order. The objective is to determine the scale of the operation and the plausibility of the results claimed by Deby. 

This shows aerial views of unidentified islands in the Lake

Chad Basin. We can see the shoreline of one shown island as being on fire. Not only is this not Nigerian territory, they basically applied a scorched earth tactic to an area of thousands of square miles, devastating the ecosystem of a large portion of Lake Chad, and

The NAF began hitting ISWAP bases in Lake Chad in 2021. For the first time ISWAP camps in Lake Chad and Tunbums is within range of the NAF. We have seen what 8 months of aerial bombardment has done to ISWAP. Can you imagine what the security situation would have been if French

and Chadian forces went after ISWAP camps, denying them sanctuary on Chadian soil for years ? If France wanted stability in Lake Chad they had years. Nigeria working with France to tackle insecurity in Lake Chad has to be the joke of the century. A trap Abuja must avoid.