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Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
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3 Jan, 5 tweets, 3 min read
We're told solar and wind future

But when wind is not blowing and sun not shining?

Batteries!

Yet

Asia uses 25GWh/minute and has 13GWh of battery storage: enough for just 31 seconds

2030: 9m:55s

After that, need 100% backup, mostly fossil fuels

woodmac.com/news/opinion/t…
This is similar to what we see in Europe, with batteries able to supply a little more than 1 minute of average electricity consumption now and about 12 minutes in 2030

Lots of people commented suggesting we can fix this

Yes, we can, but it makes 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 because we need to pay for backup

Solar costs go up 4-7x, from being some of the cheapest electricity to very expensive

lazard.com/perspective/le…
People suggest that 'it is always windy somewhere', but

1) not sufficient throughput between regions

2) European 2021 wind drought showed us it can be less windy almost everywhere

depleting other sources of energy and end up costing us a fortune

ft.com/content/d53b58…
How much is a couple of minutes of electricity storage?

Not much

Every year in Germany, there are more than 5 days (120hr/7,320 minutes) with almost no wind, and every 10 years almost 8 days without wind (186hr/11,160minutes)

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…

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More from @BjornLomborg

Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
1 Jan
Climate-related disasters killed ever fewer in 2021 — 98.7% less than a century ago

Despite breathless climate reporting none reported that

Richer and more resilient societies reduce disaster deaths

and swamp any potential climate signal

facebook.com/bjornlomborg/p…
Risk of dying from climate-related disasters declined precipitously

As global population 4x over century, risk declined by 99% from the 1920s to the 2010s

A spectacular 99.7% reduction from 1920s to 2021

Update of sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
It is well-known that climate-related deaths are declining for almost all categories for both rich and poor countries because of higher wealth

Shouldn't we be told, rather than reporting on individual events, designed to scare kids and adults alike?

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 5 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
27 Dec 21
Once again, BBC blithely repeat campaigners' press release of ever-costlier climate disasters

Yet, @MattMcGrathBBC knows disaster costs increase with more and more valuable houses

When adjusted for growing GDP, as even UN insists, weather-related damages are 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴
Christian Aid's climate "analyses" are nothing but campaigning material
BBC ought to report on the actual science, e.g. tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108… where this graph is the update:

It would make for a better-informed debate

But, of course, it wouldn't fit the narrative or make for as scary click-bait
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
16 Dec 21
Michael Mann falsely claims climate kills more people than Covid

When exposed, he doubles down and claims a Bloomberg article w/5 million deaths

Except, that's 0.5m heat deaths and 4.5m cold deaths, with cold⬇️ more than heat⬆️

Pathetic

🧵
Originally, Michael Mann falsely claims

wildfires, droughts, floods, heatwaves, and coastal inundation caused by climate

kill more people than Covid19

No: 2020-21 such climate deaths total 21,500
2020-21 Covid total 18,100,000

Covid 𝟴𝟰𝟬𝘅 bigger

When exposed, he claims WHO says 250K climate deaths

But
1) not from wildfires, droughts etc, as he claimed (malaria, dengue etc)

2) 250,000 not larger than 18,100,000

3) laughably suggests that 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 larger (yes, after 72 years)

Read 9 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
26 Nov 21
It is depressing how insistent WashPost is in describing climate as undermining everything

They tell us how heat is "stressing" wheat

— but conveniently forget to tell us that wheat production in 2021 once again broke all records
Global wheat production is larger than ever before

And this, while global wheat area has declined slightly since 1980s

apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/…
Indeed, global cereal production is setting records for 2021, but why report facts when you can scare people instead?

fao.org/worldfoodsitua…
Read 5 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
19 Nov 21
China reduced rural poverty from 96% to 0.6% in just 39 years

From 1980-2019, it lifted 750m people out of poverty

How? Through high, sustained economic growth, making average Chinese 24x richer data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.G…

osf.io/preprints/soca… Image
Growth reduces poverty, more inequality increases it

China is not exceptional at turning growth into poverty reduction, but exceptional at high growth for a long time

Graph shows:

per person growth rate (horizontal)
% point reduction in poverty per % point growth (vertical) Image
China accounts for three-quarters of absolute poverty reduction in the world

We should work for more, high, and sustained economic growth per person everywhere else

osf.io/preprints/soca… Image
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
3 Nov 21
Climate change is not a meteor hurtling toward Earth to destroy humanity.

"The first step to rational solutions is to push back on the panic and recognize that climate change does not threaten human existence."

I've been interviewed for Washington Post:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Here are the statistics for fewer climate-related deaths
Here is the UN's 2.6% loss of GDP for no climate policy
Read 4 tweets

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