Once again, BBC blithely repeat campaigners' press release of ever-costlier climate disasters

Yet, @MattMcGrathBBC knows disaster costs increase with more and more valuable houses

When adjusted for growing GDP, as even UN insists, weather-related damages are 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴
Christian Aid's climate "analyses" are nothing but campaigning material
BBC ought to report on the actual science, e.g. tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108… where this graph is the update:

It would make for a better-informed debate

But, of course, it wouldn't fit the narrative or make for as scary click-bait
Even the UN points out that you need to adjust disaster costs with GDP (because richer societies means more disaster cost for same hurricane)

E.g. UN's Sustainable Development Goal 11.5:
unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/…

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More from @BjornLomborg

16 Dec
Michael Mann falsely claims climate kills more people than Covid

When exposed, he doubles down and claims a Bloomberg article w/5 million deaths

Except, that's 0.5m heat deaths and 4.5m cold deaths, with cold⬇️ more than heat⬆️

Pathetic

🧵
Originally, Michael Mann falsely claims

wildfires, droughts, floods, heatwaves, and coastal inundation caused by climate

kill more people than Covid19

No: 2020-21 such climate deaths total 21,500
2020-21 Covid total 18,100,000

Covid 𝟴𝟰𝟬𝘅 bigger

When exposed, he claims WHO says 250K climate deaths

But
1) not from wildfires, droughts etc, as he claimed (malaria, dengue etc)

2) 250,000 not larger than 18,100,000

3) laughably suggests that 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 larger (yes, after 72 years)

Read 9 tweets
26 Nov
It is depressing how insistent WashPost is in describing climate as undermining everything

They tell us how heat is "stressing" wheat

— but conveniently forget to tell us that wheat production in 2021 once again broke all records
Global wheat production is larger than ever before

And this, while global wheat area has declined slightly since 1980s

apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/…
Indeed, global cereal production is setting records for 2021, but why report facts when you can scare people instead?

fao.org/worldfoodsitua…
Read 5 tweets
19 Nov
China reduced rural poverty from 96% to 0.6% in just 39 years

From 1980-2019, it lifted 750m people out of poverty

How? Through high, sustained economic growth, making average Chinese 24x richer data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.G…

osf.io/preprints/soca… Image
Growth reduces poverty, more inequality increases it

China is not exceptional at turning growth into poverty reduction, but exceptional at high growth for a long time

Graph shows:

per person growth rate (horizontal)
% point reduction in poverty per % point growth (vertical) Image
China accounts for three-quarters of absolute poverty reduction in the world

We should work for more, high, and sustained economic growth per person everywhere else

osf.io/preprints/soca… Image
Read 4 tweets
3 Nov
Climate change is not a meteor hurtling toward Earth to destroy humanity.

"The first step to rational solutions is to push back on the panic and recognize that climate change does not threaten human existence."

I've been interviewed for Washington Post:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Here are the statistics for fewer climate-related deaths
Here is the UN's 2.6% loss of GDP for no climate policy
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
Kids and adults alike believe the world is going down in flames

Like Rep. Katie Porter's (D., Calif.) nine-year-old daughter says: “The earth is on fire and we’re all going to die soon”

Nope

World is actually burning ever less

References here: facebook.com/bjornlomborg/p…
Not because forests are decreasing — forest area increasing since 1982
essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/12…

"We show that—contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally—tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2" nature.com/articles/s4158…
Yet, the claims of increasing fire are almost everywhere, here Boston Globe falsely claiming the new UN report says "the world is on fire"

Read 5 tweets
19 Oct
Even if entire EU went net-zero today and stayed net-zero for the rest of the century

impact rather small, reducing temperature rise in 2100 by 0.14°C (0.25°F)

Because vast part of 21st-century emissions come from currently poor world

UN climate model live.magicc.org
We don't have good estimates of what the EU net-zero policy will cost,

but similar estimates for the US shows 11.9% and for New Zealand 16% of GDP (environment.govt.nz/assets/Publica…)

It would imply costs of €6.300-8.500 per person per year (lower than US, because EU less rich)
So we have well-meaning EU leaders jetting off to Glasgow to commit to even stronger climate policies

that will drive up energy costs even more

cost EU citizens 10+% of their incomes

while having an immeasurable impact on climate by century's end

Read 7 tweets

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