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3 Jan, 6 tweets, 3 min read
X : Are you positive or negative about 2022?
Me : Hmmm ... depends upon what topic. I'm mostly neutral. Some good, some bad etc. Why?
X : You seem quite negative.
Me : No. As I said back in 2014, I'm mostly negative about 2025 to 2030. At this moment, I view things as manageable. Image
X : Peace, war and wonder?
Me : An old model, the original pre-dates my mapping work (2005) but I was only able to explain it once I had mapping in place - blog.gardeviance.org/2012/01/moving… ... it started as an observation that I couldn't explain but once I had context ... well.
X : Do you have other models?
Me : Lots. I'm very slow and cautious. It takes a long time to run experiments i.e. my population studies are paced a decade apart. It'll take another two before I'm truly confident. Bacteria are so much easier to work on compared to corporations. ImageImage
X : What are those tables?
Me : Phenotypic changes of organisations based upon underlying industrialisation of components. The next generation are where we are heading to. You can read the last study here - leadingedgeforum.turtl.co/story/on-indus…
X : How confident are you?
Me : In the method, it's improving. In the overall approach / thesis ... well, another two runs (each a decade apart) should tell me. There are no quick experiments when it comes to organisations.
X : The latest next generation seem very web3.
Me : If you say so. I personally don't have anything nice to say about web3 - ... there are however lots of interesting experiments going on with DAOs which I like.

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More from @swardley

Simon Wardley Profile picture
5 Jan
X : The car you drive is a deathtrap?Me : No. The car I used to drive had problems. I tend to use things, repair them and keep them going long beyond where they should. I'm not very good with cars, so I don't do that anymore. My car is 7 years old, so it's almost brand new.
X : Do you do that with everything?
Me : Three major decision points for me in buying any good are 1) environmental cost 2) how easy to repair 3) size and history of market in aftersales components.
X : What about extended warranty?
Me : I tend to look at the aftersales market.
X : What if it's something new?
Me : I look at the history of the company in providing aftersales components for repair.
X : If the company is new?
Me : Then I tend to assume it will break, I might not be able to repair it easily and the company will disappear.
Read 22 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
3 Jan
What an effective zero covid policy looks like - aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/2/… and how you keep deaths to less than 5 per 1M rather than 2,000+ per 1M whilst recovering the economy and restoring "normality".
"Strict controls have been astonishingly effective so far" - theguardian.com/world/2022/jan… ... but the question is always how long can such a system be maintained? Long enough to create effective mitigation through vaccines? Longer?
In a country (UK) which seems to be aiming to be "the first major economy in the world to transition from pandemic to endemic" - standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-… i.e. COVID to be a continual state of affair with re-occuring outbreaks of variants ...
Read 7 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
27 Dec 21
"Public venues CO2 dashboards" ... that is excellent. We need more of this. Every shop, every venue, every office should have highly visible CO2 displays ->
X : CO2 dashboards?
Me : Yes. It's a positive idea for many reasons - COVID, general health, performance. I have my own CO2 monitors for my home - - a consequence of a discussion with @ajbouh on particulates ...
... however, back in Jan 2021, @rleaverton pointed to me to this excellent discussion on COVID / ventilation and the use of CO2 as a proxy - ... it's a pity that a year later that CO2 monitors aren't already mandatory at any event.
Read 5 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
20 Dec 21
X : What is web 3.0?
Me : A set of worthwhile experiments being tightly coupled to specific forms of crypto for reasons of greed leading to a dystopian society of excessive control and inequality through decentralisation and "choice" that most will be excluded from.
X : I thought Web 3.0 was semantic web?
Me : Did you really expect it to be called "More economic slavery for the masses","Neoliberalism a gogo" or "Our next business model is your children"? Web 3.0 gives it more "legitimacy". Tim BL talked about Web 3.0 and so it must be good.
X : The term has been co-opted?
Me : Yep and bundled with a healthy dose of crypto and greed. I would consider the term toxic despite any worthwhile experiments and noble intentions.
X : Will it succeed though?
Me : Will the pursuit of greed lead society along horrendous paths?
Read 23 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
20 Dec 21
Tree is up and decorated, presents bought and wrapped, logs chopped, ... all the basics done. Today, some "me" time - hmmm, modding Skyrim. Oh, look a new update AE ... OMG, WTF, are they trying to kill off the modding community again just to force some creation club content?
One of these days, there will be a gaming company that doesn't try to regularly kill off its modding community in order to peddle some crap for a bit of extra cash but instead takes a radical approach of working with the community to improve the game ... I know, it's too radical.
But could you imagine what Skyrim could have become if Bethesda had actively worked with the community ... and yes, Bethesda is probably the best example of a company working with a community.
Read 4 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
18 Dec 21
X : What machine do you use?
Me : For what?
X : PC?
Me : Fairly bog standard ... tower case, i9-10900K, 32Gb RAM, 1TB SSD, RTX 3070ti, liquid cooled, dual nics etc. It does everything I need it to. I like fiddling with machines so I build myself a new rig every few years.
X : So you built it?
Me : Bizarrely, this was a base unit that I just upgraded a few things on. I didn't have much time, I needed to build the wee lad a gaming machine.
X : What's the specs on that?
Me : Stonking. It's a beast.
X : Any advice on building a PC?
Me : Don't. Especially not now ... components can be difficult to get.
Read 5 tweets

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