Bank Holiday🏴booster/3rd primary update:
260k total reported over the last three days A comparison with the prior week isn't really meaningful, but in total we've boosted just 1.6m in the 10 days from 24th to 2nd.
Total is now 28.7m.
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We may have offered all adults a booster by the year end, but around 8.7m (pale blue bars) haven't yet had one for some reason.
Note that some will be due to lack of interest, and some due to recent or current infections, rather than a lack of capacity in the system.
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Nevertheless we've got excellent coverage over age 50, with 91% of those eligible boosted, or 89% of all those with 2 doses.
Put another way, only 1.8m of those eligible over 50 haven't yet been boosted - but we do need to reach out to these people, and get them jabbed too.
3/
I reported here on ONS analysis that showed that we see the same pattern of lower take-up for boosters as we did for the primary dose campaign, hence the importance of improving take-up in minority communities.
The by now familiar look at progress over the last month by age-band, showing the rapid increase from the middle of the month, and subsequent slow progress over the Xmas and NY period.
5/
Whilst boosting will continue, given we're now past the year end deadline set, it's appropriate to once again thank all those involved who rose to the challenge of the PM's announcement of the acceleration in mid December. since when we've boosted 8.9m.
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I'll continue to provide booster updates, but on a less frequent basis from now on, given the likelihood that daily numbers will be lower from now on.
Meanwhile if you're able to and haven't yet, please do consider going and getting your booster as soon as possible.
7/7
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A great thread on the state pension and National Insurance.
For me, the trailed abolition of NI and thus its replacement by general taxation in terms of funding state pension benefits will have a major generational redistribution of tax.
It’s been the case that (in aggregate) at any one time the working generation funds the SPs of the retired generation above it.
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If the abolition of NI results in an increase (albeit smaller - else why bother) in income tax, whilst those in work will in total be better off, pensioners will be worse off.
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The Pensions & Lifetime Savings Association has updated its guide to living costs in retirement. The full report is well worth a read, and goes into a lot of detail.
One key point is that it assumes that pensioners own their home outright - probably reasonable now, but the shift to renting means that in future years that may become increasingly questionable.
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It focuses on retirement income, but note that other sources may be used to fund retirement, whether it be income from savings/investments, or gradual withdrawal of capital. Much more likely to be relevant for those aspiring to a comfortable lifestyle of course.
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UKHSA estimates that prevalence of COVID in England and Scotland has nearly tripled in the month since the ONS restarted its COVID infection surveillance.
Fortunately prevalence is lowest at the oldest, more vulnerable age groups, but is estimated at just under 6% in the 18 to 44 age groups.
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Prevalence is estimated to be highest in the London area, at just over 6% across the population. Note though that confidence intervals are wider due to lower sample sizes than in previous studies.
So with the news this morning that the earnings growth announced today means the state pension (SP) will very likely increase by another 8.5% next year, it's time to set out once again why the SP triple lock (TL) is such a bad idea.
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It's all down to cherry-picking the best of the three rates each year. I did a thread nearly a year ago, that hopefully sets out clearly how the mechanism inevitably means that the SP will grow over time against both earnings (E) and prices (P).
With BH's still distorting individual weeks' figures, the cumulative position gives a better view, with the latest CMI age-standardised analysis showing mortality 3.8% (of a full year's mortality) worse than its reference year of 2019.
Here's the mea culpa - it was only wrong by a factor of 13, but at least the post has been deleted rather than just corrected and left up, when experience shows that only a fraction of the original audience will see the correction.
So what are the true numbers?
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In E&W the peak week in 2020 was just under 9,000, and the second wave peak was pretty close to that number.
In total ONS has recorded 199,728 COVID related deaths in E&W since the pandemic started.