So, lets do a #COVID update since I have been either on vacation or...sick with COVID.
We are now at the highest new case/day of the entire pandemic. Omnicron changed everything. And the reality is we are still MASSIVELY UNDERTESTING, meaning these are undercounts.
Here is a heat map of hospitalizations, which nicely aligns with were the peak infections were about 3 weeks ago.
Here is the case map today. So we can expect continuing infections in the Northeast and Midwest for a while, but we are going to see surges of hospitalizations in the South again...likely by the middle to end of January.
Note there is little to no correlation between higher vax rates versus lower hospitalization rates.
That does NOT mean the vaccines aren't working. What it means is that there are still far too many unvaccinated, in every state.
I warned last summer that would be the case.
Unvaccinated are 13x more likely to die than vaccinated.
That said, Omnicron clearly has shown more break through infections, showing vaccines are only 5x more likely to stop infections. But there is still significant benefit.
Age is still the most important criteria.
That said, this wave is different; deaths are much lower, given the number of infections.
See these charts. First is NY, second FL. NY seems to have far more deaths this wave relative to Florida. Why?
My guess is Florida has more immunity to Delta. And Delta (not Omnicron) is causing most of the deaths in this wave; so NY's lack of Delta immunity is hurting them.
So what does this tell us? 1. Vaccines prevent deaths/hospitalizations, period. Not perfectly, but save hundreds of thousands of lives. 2. We are going to have more and more waves. 3. We have to stop living from wave to wave, and start to accept this is part of our world now.
No amount of mitigation is going to stop the next wave. No amount of vaccination is going to completely stop deaths. We should do as much as we can, but stopping society because of this is no longer a viable option.
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Most of the districts closing are not closing because there is some massive right wing opposition. When Detroit Public Schools close, does anyone truly believe its because of MAGA voters?
No, they are closing because they fear the virus. But at this point, they shouldn't.
Sufficient mitigation (not 100% perfect or ideal, but SUFFICIENT) is actually pretty cost friendly, and can be implemented quickly.
Choosing not to have faith in those tried and true practices means you don't want to follow the science.
The former Senate majority leader, who died this week at 82, was a forward-thinking political strategist who played to win. vox.com/18165142/harry… via @voxdotcom
Reid's policy decisions had huge repercussions.
But NOTHING, and I mean NOTHING, will be as long lived as the three people pictured here...who would not be on the Supreme Court if not for Reid. He set in motion the events that guaranteed Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett.
Liberals delude themselves on this. It is HIGHLY questionable whether McConnell could have kept his caucus together to oppose Garland after Scalia's passing if not for fact that Obama and Reid had just recently nuked the judicial filibuster.
Exactly. So: 1. Vax. 2. Personally decide what safety/mitigation measures would make you feel safe. 3. Vax. 4. If you feel sick, get tested, consider therapeutics quickly. 5. Get vaxxed. 6. Get vaxxed. 7. Get vaxxed.
We need to get on with our lives, protect the vulnerable as much as we can, but also realize that there is a cost with every measure we take, and some of those costs are extremely high...and not just in dollars and cents.
"Biden could have fulfilled the promises that he made during his campaign and set himself and his party up for a successful 2022. He could have ignored the hollow passions of Twitter and cable...and delivered the quiet, limited, competent leadership that he promised..."
"Instead? Well, instead he did precisely none of that. Instead, he ignored all evidence to the contrary and concluded that he was a world-historical figure. Instead, he began talking about “transforming” the country."