Thread by @ShellenbergerMD

Over the last 6 years my colleagues & I repeatedly warned that nations were becoming over-dependent on renewables & nat gas, and that we needed more, not less, nuclear. In response, we lost funding & were censored. Now, finally, many admit we were right

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/finally-bloo…

From 2017- 2021, Environmental Progress & I researched & published dozens of articles, testified before Congress, and authored a book, Apocalypse Never, arguing that renewables were making electricity unreliable & expensive & making nations dangerously dependent on nat gas.

In response, there was an organized and somewhat successful effort by progressive climate-renewables activists to cut off our funding, censor us on Facebook, and prevent me from testifying before Congress.

quillette.com/2020/07/29/why…

But now, one of the biggest boosters of natural gas and renewables, media giant Bloomberg, whose owner, Michael Bloomberg, is directly invested in natural gas and renewables, has published an article conceding almost every point we made over the years.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

“Europe Sleepwalked Into an Energy Crisis That Could Last Years,” screams the headline. The article concludes that the crisis was “years in the making” because Europe is “shutting down coal-fired electricity plants and increasing its reliance on renewables.”

Bloomberg still pulls its punches and misdescribes the situation in some ways. The article, like many other Bloomberg articles, mislabels the deployment of renewables as an “energy transition” similar to past transitions from wood to coal and coal to natural gas.

The article fails to acknowledge that the poor physics of renewables make that impossible, and it suggests the crisis resulted from ignorance. “The energy crisis hit the bloc when security of supply was not on the menu of policymakers,” which ignores that we warned policymakers.

But, to its credit, the article acknowledges that the energy crisis is a direct result of Europe over-investing in unreliable renewables and under-investing in reliable energy sources. “Wind and solar are cleaner but sometimes fickle,” the authors admit, in an understatement.

Such fickleness "was illustrated by the sudden drop in turbine-generated power the continent recorded last year.” (I was the first U.S. journalist to report Germany saw its emissions rise 25% in the first half of 2021 due to lack of wind.)

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/german-emiss…

Now, a new analysis from Environmental Progress finds Germany increased its emissions last year and will likely increase them again this year. This year, German electricity generation coming from fossil fuels will be 44% compared to 39% in 2021 and 37 percent in 2020.

The analysis assumes weather conditions and electricity demand will be similar to 2021. Emissions from Germany’s power sector will rise from 244 million tons in 2021 to 264 million tons in 2022.

environmentalprogress.org/big-news/2022/…

And Bloomberg notes that Europe is in a full-blown energy crisis. “The retired salt caverns, aquifers, and fuel depots that hold Europe’s stockpiles of natural gas have never been so empty at this point in winter,” it notes.

Bloomberg adds that “the continent is grappling with a supply crunch that’s caused benchmark gas prices to more than quadruple, squeezing businesses and households. The crisis has left the EU at the mercy of the weather and Putin’s wiles, both notoriously difficult to predict.”

It’s true that American nat gas from fracking, a practice I have long defended, will ease Europe’s pain. And it hasn’t helped that France’s leaders grossly mismanaged nuclear plants, resulting in an embarrassing 30% decline in output.

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/why-gretas-c…

But, notes Bloomberg, the relief provided by American liquified natural gas (LNG) is “temporary at best…. Storage sites [for natural gas] are only 56% full, more than 15 percentage points below the 10-year average…"

"Barring an increase in Russian exports, something that doesn’t appear to be in the cards, levels will be at less than 15% by the end of March, the lowest on record… With the two coldest months of winter still ahead, the fear is that Europe may run out of gas.”

And the lack of nuclear energy underscores the need for more nuclear plants since they are reliable and operate independently of the weather when they are managed well. No matter how well a solar farm is managed, it can’t change the weather, as Germany shows.

And now, Russia is massing troops on its border with Ukraine, and may invade. This is a problem since one-third of Russian gas going into Europe goes through Ukraine. If war breaks out, Europe could suffer serious gas shortages.

Overdependence on natural gas and renewables, and underinvestment in nuclear, has thus undermined the energy security, and thus national security, of Europe, since heads of state dependent on Russian gas will be less likely to speak out against an invasion.

Even longtime natural gas and renewable energy boosters agree there’s a crisis. “The ability of Europe and the U.S. to respond to a Russian invasion is constrained both by a desire not to exacerbate Europe’s energy crisis by sanctioning Russian energy exports..."

"...and, more broadly, by the threat that Russia could retaliate to any confrontation by restricting gas flows into Europe, as Russia did in 2006 and 2009,” Jason Bordoff, a former Obama administration official, told Bloomberg

Covid accelerated many trends and one of them is the recognition that unreliable and weather-dependent renewables cannot power modern economies. Sen. Manchin stressed renewables make electricity less reliable when he killed Build Back Better legislation

michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/climate-dogm…

Now, with New England at grave risk of energy shortages for the exact same reasons as Europe, it’s time for the American people and their representatives to fully wake up to the reality that modern societies cannot rely on unreliable renewables.

It would also help if the renewables industry, and its supporters, including Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, Rep. Sean Casten, and Rep. Jared Huffman, would stop trying to censor and otherwise shut down the people who raised the alarm about the coming crisis in the first place.

/END