Many people think climate change is increasing the frequency of natural disasters but they actually declined by 10% over the last two decades, the best-available data show
“The period since 2000 is viewed as the most reliable for data reliability, but it is safe to say that even since 2000, coverage has improved. So the 10% decline is possibly an underestimate.“ @RogerPielkeJr…
Much of what people think about climate change is wrong

Deaths from natural disasters have declined dramatically but more people think they increased than think they decreased
The cost of natural disasters has declined as a share of GDP but more people think their cost went up than down
Neither the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) nor any other scientific body predicts climate change will reverse the declining disaster death toll and yet 3x more people believe it will than believe it won’t
US CO2 emissions declined 14% over the last decade but 3x more people believe they rose
Carbon emissions *globally* *declined* over the the last decade and yet 62% of Americans surveyed said they went up and just 10% said they didn’t
Climate change has been one of the most-discussed and most-covered news stories of the last two decades and so much of the responsibility for the public believing things that simply aren’t true comes not from lack of information but rather the constant barrage misinformation.
It is common to hear journalists lament declining overall trust in the news media, particularly among Republicans, but the massive gulf between basic climate facts and what people believe suggests such distrust is warranted & indeed should have declined not risen among Democrats.
This is particularly true because Dems are more likely than Rs to believe false information about many aspects of climate change, as the Google surveys show. (I was a Democrat until April when I changed my party affiliation to “No party preference)…
Forty-two percent of Democrats and 35 percent of Republicans agreed with the statement, “More people are dying from natural disasters.”
Seventy-one percent of Democrats and 30 percent of Republicans agreed with the statement, “Climate change is increasing the cost of natural disasters as a percent of GDP.”
76 percent of Democrats and 34 percent of Republicans agreed that “Deaths from natural disasters will rise in the future due to climate change.”
67 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of Republicans agreed that “Carbon emissions have risen in the United States over the last 10 years.”

In reality, carbon emissions declined by 14 percent between 2011 and 2020.
But haven’t disasters hammered banks? Nope. “How Bad Are Weather Disasters for Banks?” asks the title of a recent report by three NY Fed economists. “Not very,” they answer in the first sentence of the abstract.…
The reason is because “weather disasters over the last quarter century had insignificant or small effects on U.S. banks’ performance.” The study looked at FEMA-level disasters between 1995 and 2018, at county-level property damage estimates, and the impact on banking revenue.
While scientists expect hurricanes to become 5% more intense they also expect them to become 25% less frequent
What about floods? It’s true that more people are being exposed to them but that’s because cities along rivers are growing. Flood deaths & damages are declining
What about droughts? They’re not increasing in US or globally
What about fires? Warmer temperatures dry out the wood but they don’t increase fuel load, and fuel load determines fire intensity. Forest management not climate change thus determines whether you have high-intensity, crown-burning, forest-destroying fires.
What about shrubland fires in places like Malibu in Southern California? “Ignitions explain more than temperature … One hundred percent were human caused, … powerline failures have been the dominant cause”…
What about food production? Technology (eg fertilizer, irrigation, & tractors) will continue to outweigh temperature increases. We produce food in many climates around the world, including very hot and dry ones.
What about sea level rise? We can handle it
How does climate change rank compared to wars, disease, asteroids, super-volcanoes, and tsunamis? Much lower. There’s no *scientific* scenario for climate change posing an existential risk. By contrast, consider an asteroid.
Is there some place you can see an overview of the best-available science, complete with references? There is!…
Is there some easy-to-read book you can read that lays out the science on climate change, plastics, meat, species, energy, and food told through fun stories? There is!…
Climate alarmism is harmful to mental health and is increasingly used as an excuse by politicians. They blame climate change for bad disaster preparedness and management. We see that with fires, flooding, and hurricanes. That’s bad for many reasons:…
Q: If apocalyptic thinking is so easily debunked, why is it so powerful?


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More from @ShellenbergerMD

7 Jan
Summarized the best available evidence into a book on the problems & solutions; co-founded the only state-wide coalition with a serious plan; made seed grants to activist start-ups; organized 4 protests against drug dealing in 7 months in 3 cities; & just getting started.
As for ass kissing, I criticized Mayor Breed for violating her own covid orders in September and will not hesitate to criticize her or anyone else in the future.

But I believe in carrots and sticks. And right now she deserves our praise and gratitude for doing something.
For more information on the California Peace Coalition, the only coalition in San Francisco or California or the US with a serious, proven strategy for addressing the drug death crisis, please visit:
Read 4 tweets
7 Jan
A lot of San Franciscans & people who love the city have rightly criticized its drug, crime & homeless crisis, I included

Well, now's our chance to support SF leaders like Mayor @LondonBreed when they do the right thing.

Please consider thanking her
I literally wrote the book on San Francisco's problems and agree we must keep pressure on the city's leaders.

But we also must encourage policymakers when they take positive steps in the right direction, particularly when doing so is risky, which it is:…
This is not complicated. This not nuclear engineering.

There is literally a "How to Shut Down an Open Drug Scene" check list (below)

Breed is taking action on the first two: build a political consensus & open a linkage center

Many others are in place

Read 12 tweets
5 Jan
Many people in San Francisco say they support the plan by Mayor @LondonBreed to crack down on drug dealing & open drug use, but she is facing fierce resistance from progressive politicians and bureaucrats, and not getting the support she needs to succeed.…
San Francisco Mayor London Breed made national news last month after announcing a crackdown on drug crimes and an end to the “bullish**t” in the streets, including open drug use and open air drug dealing.…
But now her plan is being threatened by the progressive D.A., progressives on the Board of Supervisors, and progressives within the city’s homeless and public health agencies, including the San Francisco Department of Homelessness (HSH) & the SF Department of Public Health (DPH).
Read 34 tweets
5 Jan
@jack Thank you for speaking up for abundant energy and nuclear energy

Abundant energy allows for long lives and less poverty

There is no poor high-energy nation

There is no rich low-energy nation
@jack Only nuclear allows for large rich nations to produce cheap electricity with little pollution
@jack Weather-dependent renewables make electricity expensive for inherently physical reasons

The industrial revolution wasn't possible with renewables due to low energy return on energy invested
Read 8 tweets
4 Jan
Why did progressives try to cancel legendary biologist & conservationist E.O. Wilson for writing “Sociobiology”?

Join Pulitzer-winning historian Richard Rhodes & me to discuss his new biography of Wilson, and nuclear, at 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT!
Readers of Apocalypse Never will recall that Rhodes is the author of "The Making of the Atomic Bomb" and a pro-nuclear energy

He made a cameo in ApoNev
His new book is amazing…
Read 4 tweets
4 Jan
Over the last 6 years my colleagues & I repeatedly warned that nations were becoming over-dependent on renewables & nat gas, and that we needed more, not less, nuclear. In response, we lost funding & were censored. Now, finally, many admit we were right…
From 2017- 2021, Environmental Progress & I researched & published dozens of articles, testified before Congress, and authored a book, Apocalypse Never, arguing that renewables were making electricity unreliable & expensive & making nations dangerously dependent on nat gas.
In response, there was an organized and somewhat successful effort by progressive climate-renewables activists to cut off our funding, censor us on Facebook, and prevent me from testifying before Congress.…
Read 24 tweets

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