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4 Jan, 21 tweets, 7 min read
Top Picks for 2022: 5 Long / 5ish Shorts
$THRY - THRY is one of my favorite types of investments, a small fast growing high margin business (SMB Software) inside a large melting icecube (Yellowpages). Hard to value at first, but as the fast growing portion grows the valuation becomes straight forward & multiple improves
$THVY Links:
ragnarisapirate.blogspot.com/2021/01/thryv-…

s25.q4cdn.com/929024644/file…
$RICK - COVID rebound still not completely priced in, Bombshells expanding, Stellar Management, recent club acquisition likely means $10+ of FCF/share in 2022, and you have an upside option of AdmireMe (OnlyFans Clone).
$RICK Links:
rcihospitality.com/investor/docum…

CEO Interview:
open.spotify.com/episode/0e0YUf…

greystonevalue.com/wp-content/upl…
$IAC - SOTP means you are still getting several businesses for free, including Toro (IPO in 2022), Care.com, and others. Joey Levin is a world class capital allocator. Still lots of cash post the Meredith deal, so potential for more M&A in 2022.
$IAC Links:


ir.iac.com/static-files/f…
$MXCT - Flow Electroporation technology that is partnered with major Cell & Gene Theory (CGT) Companies to support their therapeutic developments. Model is high margin royalty on success of CGT approval and rollout. CGT development will pick up in 2022 post COVID.
$MXCT Links:
Competitive Advantage


investors.maxcyte.com/static-files/d…
$RADI - They own/buy land/site leases under Telecom assets, mainly towers. +Diversified globally +Inflation hedge through escalators +Step up in Acquisition Capex +Small size deals create need for team in each country which creates moat but costs G&A. Long Runway.
$RADI Links:



radiusglobal.com/static-files/5…
$WRBY - DTC Model shifting to a retail model, where heavy investment is required & growth will slow. Current growth is flat for last 3 Quarters and 4Q projected to be flat. Stock is valued as high growth / high margin retailer, but it's not. Huge Insider/institutional overhang
$WRBY Links:
Thesis:

Insiders selling out:
insider-monitor.com/trading/cik150…
$RIVN - EV automaker that is just the latest overvalued EV IPO. Even if it succeeds at garnering a reasonable size of the market the valuation has pulled forward 10+ years of returns. IPO Lockup still coming in Q2 will be overhang to shares. Overall there is an EV Bubble.
$RIVN Links:

S-1 With Lockup Terms (180 days from IPO):
sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
$AMC - Clownshow about to come to an end. CEO, CFO selling out of their shares, Support Crew is folding across the board, the model never made sense. $5 target.
$AMC Links:



Insiders Bail:
insider-monitor.com/trading/cik141…
$LAZR: Convertible Debt deal and share repurchase boost shares short term, but their fundamentals are still years off from making sense. Artificial move short term wont be sustained. Competition in Lidar space is substantial and margins not going to be great long term.
$LAZR Links:

Convertible Deal: finance.yahoo.com/news/luminar-t…
SaaS & Software Bucket - This is purely a valuation, momentum, and grow trajectory play. COVID causes a one time shift software spend that showed up in many of these SaaS names. That won't sustain long term. Valuations are absurd. Bucket based on valuation and technicals.
Saas Links:



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More from @LSValue

Long Short Value Profile picture
31 Aug 21
How to build an NFT bubble portfolio with minimal risk of loss.

This for people with some Crypto already. Let’s say you have 10 ETH in your account that is just sitting doing nothing. This is how you can build an NFT portfolio worth millions.
1) Buy an NFT for .1 ETH from one Ethereum wallet

2) Buy that same NFT for 9.9 ETH from another wallet. It now has a “value” or “sales history” on OpenSea of 9.9 ETH, but you paid yourself the 9.9 ETH.

3) Resell it for 12 ETH (or 7 or 5 ETH) on OpenSea doesn’t matter.
4) With your remaining 9.9 ETH repeat steps 1-2 until you have a portfolio of 30-50 NFTs worth $1m.

You can create as many ETH wallets as you want so on one will ever know you are buying them yourself to inflate the price. This is called wash trading.
Read 4 tweets
Long Short Value Profile picture
27 Jul 21
My $ETSY Long Thesis:

▪️ Covid pulled forward significant demand
▪️ High Margin stable and growing core Etsy Platform
▪️ House of Brands expands TAM at reasonable valuation due to synergistic back office cost sharing
▪️ Cheap on a go forward basis 33x F EV/EBITDA
Etsy is an eCommerce website that allows makers of custom goods to easily transact on the internet without setting up their own website. Etsy is a niche marketplace for quality handmade products in categories like Home Furnishing, Apparel, Jewelry, and Craft Supplies.
At the beginning of the Covid outbreak in 2020, Etsy saw a huge surge in the sale of masks as mask mandates were established globally. This was in part due to the lack of masks available through normal supply chains as well as the lack of fashionable or comfortable masks.
Read 12 tweets
Long Short Value Profile picture
19 Apr 21
$TWTR Long Thesis:

-Twitter owns the Social Graph
-Can bring successful 3rd party products into platform and extract value from them (example Twitter Spaces -> Clubhouse)
-Elliot Management is pushing for Monetization
-Platform is ready to evolve after many years of development
Twitter has been a lackluster investment for many years since it came public in 2013. For many years twitter has been reluctant to monetize their social graph, in part fearing they would alienate some of their users.
The company has had a part time CEO for the last few years in Jack Dorsey, who is also the CEO of Square. Compounding some of the issues Twitter has struggled for many years with their technology.
Read 19 tweets
Long Short Value Profile picture
7 Apr 21
Coinbase is not worth $100B and if you buy them here you are in for a wake up call with a markdown.

A Thread: 👇
Coinbase reported earnings for Q1

$750m Net Income on $1.8B of revenue, not bad. But what was Coinbase App (Retail) vs Coinbase Pro Exchange (Institution) ?

Here: investor.coinbase.com/news/news-deta…
They recently posted their S-1, in which they suspiciously never talk about their revenue from their retail app vs their revenue from the institutional Coinbase Pro trading exchange. sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
Read 12 tweets
Long Short Value Profile picture
28 Jan 21
Thread on the good things that have come from WSBs yolos:

Kid helps his mom pay for his sisters Lyme Disease treatment:
Husband supporting his wife who was just diagnosed with MS.
Guy wanted to buy a Nissan, is now probably buying a BMW.
Read 8 tweets
Long Short Value Profile picture
27 Jan 21
The funny thing about short squeezes, is they only work for a very short period of time (usually about 2 weeks). Its like a ticking timebomb on all these names....

Gonna be a fun ride down.
Here is a list of shorts that have 50-75% downside once all this De-Grossing / WSB Pumping passes:

$NKLA - Still a Piece of Crap
$PEN - Still pending issues with Devices
$GSX - Was a big Melvin Cap Short, still a Fraud
$AAPN - Low Growth, Low Moat
$BYND - Tough Q4 Coming
More:

$AI - IPO, first quarter likely to disappoint
$BIGC - Growth vs Valuation still out of line
$REV - Still broken model with a looting Chairman
$NOK - Obviously
$GME - Obviously
Read 5 tweets

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