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@LSValue

27 Jan

The funny thing about short squeezes, is they only work for a very short period of time (usually about 2 weeks). Its like a ticking timebomb on all these names....

Gonna be a fun ride down.

Here is a list of shorts that have 50-75% downside once all this De-Grossing / WSB Pumping passes:

$NKLA - Still a Piece of Crap
$PEN - Still pending issues with Devices
$GSX - Was a big Melvin Cap Short, still a Fraud
$AAPN - Low Growth, Low Moat
$BYND - Tough Q4 Coming

More:

$AI - IPO, first quarter likely to disappoint
$BIGC - Growth vs Valuation still out of line
$REV - Still broken model with a looting Chairman
$NOK - Obviously
$GME - Obviously

Read 5 tweets

Long Short Value

@LSValue

1 Jan

My Top Picks for 2021: 5 Longs and 5 Shorts:

$SEAC: 2020 saw the stock drop 67% on bad Framework deal closure numbers and limited revenue growth. With the release of their Video App and Ad Insertion Model in Q3/Q4 of this year, the dynamics will shift back to growth as they execute on the product diversification strategy

$IAC: Interactive Corp is a #NeverSell in my mind. It is continually undervalued by the market while continuing to show they can execute on their Internet Incubator model over and over. Vimeo is an incredibly unique asset and its upcoming spinoff should be value generating

Read 11 tweets

Long Short Value

@LSValue

15 Nov 20

Finance / Investing Insights that I have Learned in the last 7 years on Fintwit:

1) In investing there is always a soup of the day. You should always ask what it is but never order it.

2) Over a lifetime if you want to grow your wealth you either need growth, leverage, and/or dealmaking skills. Very hard to build wealth without any of these three.

Read 25 tweets

Long Short Value

@LSValue

6 Aug 20

$CVNA Thread on Financing Sales:

$CVNA could easily be using their relationship with DriveTime to offload their Financing products at Premium prices and their Financing Margins improved bc they started securitizing their own loans in 2019 and have since plateaued

1) Before we get into this, you need to understand:

*CVNA CEO's dad is Ernest Garcia II, he owns and runs DriveTime & owns 38% of CVNA
*CVNA was originally a subsidiary of DriveTime prior to a spin-out and IPO
*CVNA is located next door to DriveTime
*DriveTime is Private

2) What financing do they actually sell? Its all the bullshit insurancy stuff car dealers try to sell you when you are buying a car.

VSCs = Vehicle Servicing Contracts = Extended Warranties
GAP Waiver Coverage = Coverage in case the car is totaled
Loan Receivables

Read 17 tweets

Long Short Value

@LSValue

7 Jul 20

$TPB Long Thesis Thread:

Turning Point Brands is an extremely well run Other Tobacco Products (OTP) Company that focuses on non-cigerette tobacco products. They focus on high margin OTP products.

Several attractive dynamics will drive significant gains over the next decade.

Long Thesis Highlights:
•PMTA regulation will force small OTP players out of business or to sell to larger players like TPB
•Zig Zag has a huge growth runway
•Vape volumes not materially impacted by Vapegate
•Huge opp in CBD and Cannabis
•Strong Mangement / Cap Allocation

1) PMTA regulation starts in Sept 2020. TPB has been preparing and investing to support all their products in PMTA. They have also been doing PMTA support for others.

PMTA will materially change the OTP segment. It creates a regulatory barrier to entry, that benefits TPB

Read 11 tweets

Long Short Value

@LSValue

6 May 20

$CVNA Updated Data. When you dig into the numbers you will see things look very bad for the company in terms of growth prospects and unit margins.

1) Here is the QoQ and YoY Data and Trends.

-Declining GP Margin is not a new trend it is clearly an issue for the company that started in Q3-2019.
-Declining GP in total is a new trend this quarter.
-Even more surprising is Revenue is now declining, on a QoQ basis.

2) To put in perspective just how bad Q1 2020 was, look at the last 4 years Q1 QoQ growth rates. Seasonality would dictate you should see a big jump in Q1 over Q4. But Q1 2020 is down 28% vs 2019 QoQ growth rates.

Read 6 tweets

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