Thread by @ArmsControlWonk

I was quoted in this @defense_news story about Morocco's expanding air defense capabilities. Don't feel like writing a blog post, so here's a thread on what little I was able to add with OSINT.
defensenews.com/global/mideast…

In December, a Spanish-language publication reported that Morocco had taken delivery of some very capable Chinese surface-to-air missiles (HQ-9B/FD-2000B).
defensa.com/africa-asia-pa…

Defensa.com said the missiles were deployed at Morocco's "first military base dedicated to long-range air defense ... near the city of Sidi Yahya el-Gharb" and published a May 2021 satellite image from @googleearth of the site.

There were only two analytic things I could add to the puzzle. Is this an air defense base? Has Morocco deployed the HQ-9B (FD-2000B) there. My answers are "yes" and "probably."

Is this an air defense base? Construction of the site corresponds with the reported 2017 agreement between Morocco and China. That suggests that, if this places houses air defense systems, it was purpose-built to house the systems supplied by China under this deal.

More importantly, we have one image of a Chinese-supplied Sky Dragon 50 in Morocco. We can geolocate the image to the base, which seems to wrap this question up in a nice, tidy package. Yes, this is Morocco's primary air defense base.

Does this site house the HQ-9B? That's a little murkier. There are a few satellite images of the location that show vehicles, but I didn't see a clear shot of an HQ-9B. That's the gold standard, but we don't have that as of January 2022. Someday soon, I presume.

On the other hand, we have a strong indication that this site was purpose built to house the Chinese-supplied air defense missiles. And, in the background of the Sky Dragon 50 image, we can see much larger garages -- presumably for larger SAMs.

Conveniently, the larger garages were the last to be constructed. One of the buildings wasn't even finished in the Sky Dragon 50 image, which really slowed my geolocation. This suggests Morocco planned to take delivery of something very much like the HQ-9.

The open source imagery can't confirm every detail of the reporting, but it certainly confirms the outlines -- that there was a China-Morocco air defense deal ~2017, that this base was built to house those systems, and that the deal included systems larger than the Sky Dragon 50.