A short thread on North Korea's "hypersonic" missile test. It's a MaRV.
All long-range missiles are hypersonic! The range of a ballistic missile is, to a first approximation, a function of the velocity of a missile at burnout. Any ballistic missile that travels more than a few hundred kilometers will be traveling faster than Mach 5 (1.75 km/s).
What North Korea tested was a hypersonic glider. The system flew 700 km. The warhead separated at some point and glided for a few hundred kilometers, including a 120 km cross-range glide. I mocked up some trajectories; they're only sort of to scale.
This is the *second* glider that North Korea has tested. This one is conical with little fins. We saw it for the first time at the Defense Expo (left). That's a very different shape than the wedge-shaped system tested in September 2021 and also see at the Defense Expo (right).
Here is another side-by_side comparison of the conical HGV and the wedge-shaped HGV.
This sort of conical glider used to be known as a "maneuvering reentry vehicle" (MaRV) like the US deployed on the Pershing-II in the 1980s. South Korea's Hyunmoo-series has MaRVs, too.
This isn't even North Korea's first MaRV. In 2017, North Korea showed us a Scud in with fins on the warhead. The system tested this week is, of course, a lot more capable.
While "hypersonic" is the buzzword of the moment, there is a growing interest creating reentry vehicles that can execute extreme maneuvers. The US has published about these capabilities. And so has South Korea.
While the US and ROK papers are describing much fancier maneuvers than the simple turn made by the DPRK glider, I still can think of uses for a 120 km cross-range maneuver on a 700 km trajectory.
One of my complaints about the "hypersonic" framing is that it wrongly emphasizes speed when what we really are discussing is maneuverability and accuracy. So, yeah, the new DPRK glider is hypersonic. But more importantly, it's a MaRV.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ArmsControlWonk

5 Jan
I was quoted in this @defense_news story about Morocco's expanding air defense capabilities. Don't feel like writing a blog post, so here's a thread on what little I was able to add with OSINT.
defensenews.com/global/mideast…
In December, a Spanish-language publication reported that Morocco had taken delivery of some very capable Chinese surface-to-air missiles (HQ-9B/FD-2000B).
defensa.com/africa-asia-pa…
Defensa.com said the missiles were deployed at Morocco's "first military base dedicated to long-range air defense ... near the city of Sidi Yahya el-Gharb" and published a May 2021 satellite image from @googleearth of the site.
Read 10 tweets
23 Dec 21
This amazing reporting by @ZcohenCNN is exactly the kind of collaboration that @JamesMartinCNS wants to continue with @CNN and @planet. I think it is civil society at its best. A short thread.
In 2013, @JanesINTEL identified a missile base at this location; a few years later @fab_hinz noticed that the sit had changed significantly. We ultimately assessed the place was a Chinese constructed missile facility:
washingtonpost.com/world/national…
Our story prompted people in Congress to start asking questions. Eventually someone spilled the beans. The Trump Administration was actively withholding this information from Congress, @ZcohenCNN reported. cnn.com/2019/06/05/pol…
Read 19 tweets
17 Dec 21
I think this is a terrible mistake. A short thread.
First, there is no upside to threatening force at this late date. The Iran nuclear deal appears very much to be dead and I strongly suspect that the Iranians are en route to nuclear latency/opacity. Threatening the use of force is unlikely to alter that outcome in my opinion.
One problem with nonproliferation wonks is that we warn US officials about the dangers of a certain course of action, but after they do it anyway, we advise about how to mitigate those dangers. We call it being "policy relevant." People who treat drunks call it "enabling."
Read 11 tweets
16 Oct 21
No one should be surprised by orbital bombardment, although the glider is a nice touch. The Soviets deployed an orbital bombardment system in the 1970s. This is an old concept that is newly relevant as a way to defeat missile defenses.
I wrote a short thread last month on why I think orbital bombardment makes sense for Russia, China and North Korea -- especially if gliders mean they can improve accuracy.
But really, I've been banging on about orbital bombardment for several years now. It's obvious: The US put a missile defense system in Alaska to defend against missiles coming over the North Pole. What did you think Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang will do? Just give up?
Read 5 tweets
10 Oct 21
"I am concerned that using a dead drop location your friend prepares makes me very vulnerable."

No shit, dude.

justice.gov/opa/press-rele…
"I must consider the possibility that l am communicating with an adversary who has intercepted my first message and is attempting to expose me. Would not such an adversary wish me to go to a place of his choosing, knowing that an amateur will be unlikely to detect surveillance?"
Read 5 tweets
6 Oct 21
Glad to see the Biden Administration resuming the Obama-era practice of being transparent about the size of the US nuclear stockpile. A thread.
Funny story. George W. Bush dramatically reduced the size of the nuclear stockpile -- but never took credit for it because the stockpile size was secret. He cut the stockpile in half and then by a further 15 percent.
Bush's record on reducing the size of the US nuclear stockpile is excellent. But no one knew it. There were even stories that he had slowed the pace of dismantlement, stories that turned out to be false. The moral to the story is that doing the right thing isn't always enough.
Read 15 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(