I found this very entertaining and thought provoking. A few observations:
1. 1998's devolution settlement was popular. And it's at least as possible that support for independence could have been greater and more millitant had England denied it to the nations. Tom presents it as though we are sure it hastened rather than forestalled disintegration.
2. It could be a good thing that there might not exist a single sense of Britishness, and that multiple such identities can /do coexist; and that this can be a sign of national health. The piece's implicit hypothesis is that the lack of a single identity is an illness.
3. There is a lot of quantitative poli sci work on British/constituent nations/racial identity and changes over time. We can't diagnose the state of the nation and its future without reference to it.
4. Tom's piece asserts that Brexit has made indy more likely in the short term. Has it? That is what I expected, but the polling has tilted away somewhat. Partly because of the issues Tom raises, the greater economic costs now UK has left.
5. The centrifugal forces don't stop at the UK's constituent nations - there is a louder debate than ever I can remember about North/South, London / left behind injustices and devolution of power to resolve them. [That I despair at, incidentally].
6. Seems somewhat strong to assert that there is no active UK state in Scotland. Given its continued and historic receipt of the Barnet formula subsidy. £ counts for something!
7. If we are going to debate the Midlothian question, we have to discuss the attempt to operate English Votes for English Laws to solve it. And also that the Scottish say on English matters is the flip side/compensation for being otherwise always the partner 10*smaller than E.
8. Another issue that runs through this piece is that the coherence of the nation is affected by 1) potential polarization generally 2) the reshaping of dividing lines from old cleavages to new [eg, but not confined to Remain/Leave], that in turn due to societal changes....
...like the expansion of higher education; the march of house prices; techology and its effect or not on inequality and applicability of skills; new imperatives like climate change [a source of antagonism]; immigration.
9. Lurking also, behind this debate is the thorny issue of what rights majorities or multiple minorities have to insist/try to engineer coherence across other groups, and relatedly the normative issue of the right to devolution/self determination/secession.
Eg, if you took an extreme position that sub groups always have the right to choose their degree of self-determination/exploitation of colllective scale economies/synergies, then discussing how to promote common identities is at best for the birds and at worst, unethical.
[I don't take that extreme position. You can't have people proposing the Republic of Kentish Town and imposing trade and currency chaos on everyone; but it's equally extreme to assert that no group of any kind can ever secede or disentangle in part].
Final small point - Orkney and Shetland voted 67% and 63% against indy in 2014, so Tom spotting the absence of Scottish flags is not a coincidence. A point that reinforces that incoherence lurks even at the sub-nation level, and not just in England.
And a PS to that final small point. The multiple Scots Nats and unionist identities. Nats both progressive, fiscally fantasist, embracing and denying climate change [re implications for oil exploitation]. Unionists both Conservative and progressive.

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More from @t0nyyates

4 Jan
A lot of those who 'don't care' arrived at that view by consuming misinformation fed to them by thought leaders in their political tribe.
It's highly illiberal not to offer treatment to those that change their mind via the tragic route of a severe infection.
Read 7 tweets
20 Dec 21
So, no lockdown yet. There's a legitimate debate to be had about what needs to be done and when. If, like me, you think that we ought to have moved, and that eventually the govt do the right thing [more on this in a minute], this just means worse is coming soon.
ie, we are eventually going to have to lock down for more and for longer than we otherwise would. This is for two reasons.
First, locking down later allows the epidemic to spread more, and it therefore takes longer/stronger set of measures to reduce the actual flow of cases to the target flow.
Read 5 tweets
20 Dec 21
@Samfr @iainmartin1 @DPJHodges There’s nothing wrong with what SAGE did, but that tweet is not really correct as it stands.
@Samfr @iainmartin1 @DPJHodges Forget the 'complexity' for a moment. That is a side issue. Think of the model, for simplicity, as y=y_1+x+shocks. y is infections, '-1' denotes one period before, x is a policy [like permitted contacts], shocks are good and bad luck.
@Samfr @iainmartin1 @DPJHodges SAGE are asking: what will happen to y, for different x's, ie different policy settings for permitted contacts. Try some different x's, and you get different time paths for y. When you see a time path for y you like, then you note down the x's and legislate for them.
Read 11 tweets
18 Dec 21
If I was an enterprising chair of an extreme Tory whatsapp group I would consider choreographing performative digital rage and an expulsion to try to emphasise the point.
I guess you will have to take my word on that one as this claim is unlikely to be put to the test.
Wait till they hear how angry we are in this group!
Everyone is already saying that they won't take any notice.
OK so let's have an argument and then someone leak it.
Been there done that.
OK let's have an argument, throw out a fake Boris supporter, and then leak it.
OK let's go.
Read 4 tweets
18 Dec 21
I’m sure this is bollocks, and he is resigning because he suspects he would be pushed to back down over the NI protocol.
John Redwood to replace him is my tip 😀
Read 6 tweets
14 Dec 21
Objections to vaccine passports often stress liberty. But society infringes our liberties all the time to help the collective good. Our access to weapons. What we can do with them. Our ability to drive cars or ride motorbikes or pilot planes. Our rights to privacy.
Vaccine passports should be weighed on their merits. Harm caused to those who feel compelled to get vaccines who wouldn't do it otherwise, or have to avoid venues and services they previously had access to, vs the suffering alleviated by suppressing covid.
The suffering has many components: the regret an unvaccinated person and their loved ones have later when hospitalized or facing death. The illness and death of others fostered by less impeded spread of covid; and the fear of it. Leaning more on other tools like lockdowns.
Read 37 tweets

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