Thread by @RogerPielkeJr

I'm see frequent claims by scientists that Colorado Marshall fire can be attributed to human-caused climate change but little data/analysis

I'm looking at actual data to try to understand such claims

Here is Dec precip in Boulder 1893 to 2021
No long-term trend, increase >1990

Grasses, such as those of the Marshall Mesa open space are what are called "one hour fuels" meaning that "Fuel moisture in these fuels can change within one hour according to factors such as temperature, rain, humidity and shade"
noble.org/news/publicati…

To attribute fire in Boulder to human-caused climate change requires
(a) establishing trend in conditions of "one-hour fuels" leading to greater flammability on climate time scales (>30yrs)
(b) attributing that trend to human-caused CC

I've seen neither (but welcome pointers)

In contrast, literature on grass fires points to antecedent wet conditions (leading to grass growth), invasive species, human ignitions as factors more important than decadal climate trends, see, eg

➡️link.springer.com/article/10.100…
➡️doi.org/10.1002/fee.24…
➡️iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…

Human-caused climate change is real and important, as I have said for 25+ years

At the same time, uninformed or groupthink claims of attribution are not particularly helpful in thinking through fire policies that will make a difference to fire outcomes

I welcome hearing other perspectives, especially those that are based on data and analysis and especially from those experts who are making strong attribution claims

PSA: Disrespectful or rude comments get an immediate mute here, no warnings 🙏

From IPCC WG1 AR6:

"low confidence in the emergence of drought frequency in observations, for any type of drought, in all regions"

"fire weather indices have already emerged in several regions (the Amazon basin, Med, C America, W and S Africa) (low confidence, low evidence)"

It is eye-opening to see colleagues who have never studied fire, disasters or attribution making confident claims of attribution in the media

Wash Post making stuff up in this lede

Hwy 93 runs from Golden to Boulder
The Table Mesa King Soopers (where the shooting occurred) is not near where Superior/Louisville resident would grocery shop

Disappointing
washingtonpost.com/national/color…