Thread by @BillyBobBaghold

Billy’s 2022 Predictions, Volume 1

I’ve been meaning to get around to my 2022 predictions for weeks, but the combination of family time and partying has delayed me. I planned to release one mega predictions post, but in the interests of getting this out there I’ll split them up

So here are my first batch of 5 predictions for 2022. Enjoy!

Prediction 1: #L22022

2022 will be the year of layer 2s. The narrative has started, with L2 TVL now c. $6b and big price moves from $METIS $NETT $SYS $DYDX etc. - I hope you caught some of them with me.

I expect L2 tokens to continue to perform strongly. More specifically I expect:

- $ETH will pump heading into the merge. This will trickle (or gush might be a better word) down to L2s.

- More L2s will issue their own native token - the success of $METIS shows the network effect it can help foster.
- Several more L2s will launch (in due course I’ll give a rundown of those I am watching most closely).

- More L2s will integrate exchange or fiat onramps (like $METIS and @gate_io), allowing L1s andfees to by bypassed
- Struggling L1s may pivot to become L2s
- Liquidity will be fragmented - this will create fantastic rotation opportunities.

My picks: $METIS $MUTE [new L2 tokens]

Prediction 2: $FTM Challenging $SOL

$FTM was one of the best performers last year. However it is still relatively unknown and undervalued compared to its L1 competitors - from a MC:TVL standpoint it is priced 2x-4x lower than competing (and in my opinion inferior) L1s.

This is beginning to change right before our eyes, partly due to the two kings of defi @AndreCronjeTech and @danielesesta working together to unite the frogs and $FTM.

But there are additional significant catalysts coming. I’m also particularly excited about (1) the the release of the Fantom Virtual Machine which will increase $FTM scalability by orders of magnitude, (2) Binance Cloud for $FTM - a CEX specialising in $FTM tokens

(3) a (likely) @coinbase listing and (4) (likely) increased decentralisation as the minimum stake amount of $FTM is reduced. I may even spin up a few.

I’m also looking forward to Keeper’s $FTM integration - more on this in my prediction below.

My picks: $FTM $BOO $SCREAM

Prediction 3: Forex

The forex market is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily volume of $6.6 trillion. Crypto’s largest ever day was c. $500b, or 7.5% the forex AVERAGE. Woah. Now you see how large the opportunity is.

Plenty of crypto traders traded forex first, so are already onboarded. However until recently, crypto forex infrastructure was either not available, poor quality, or lacked liquidity. While deep liquidity is still months - years away, several quality protocols have spun up.

My two picks for now are #KP3R and $ANGLE. #KP3R will soon launch on $FTM, reducing trading fees while $ANGLE will launch several non-USD stables to augment its leverage trading options. Given the lack of volatility in forex, leverage trading within a stablecoin protocol is key.

My picks: @thekeep3r @AngleProtocol

Prediction 4: Stablecoins, Particularly Non-USD

Speaking of stablecoins, the stablecoin wars will only get hotter in 2022 and not just between protocols, but also between currencies, as they battle for more of the $6.6 trillion daily market.

Non-USD Stables

From the chart below, $USD is nowhere near even half of the total fiat currency market, yet USD utterly dominates stablecoin volume. This will change, particularly as projects like KP3R and $ANGLE give users more stablecoin currency options.

$CRV War Continues and Intensifies

The first battles of the $CRV war may have been fought, but the war is far from over, and likely won’t be over until $CRV finishes its issuance in hundreds of years.

Stablecoin protocols will proliferate and all will need liquidity to survive. There will be more liquidity to go around as crypto forex increases, but liquidity will tend towards those protocols that offer the highest rewards and incentives. $CRV and $CVX effectively control such

So $CRV and $CVX will continue to do well.

But who controls/owns $CRV and $CVX? $BADGER owns and controls more $CVX than any other protocol (few) and $BTRFLY was invented to leverage the power of $CRV:

Stablecoin Regulation

Although I am very bullish on stablecoins, I am keeping an eye on their regulation - more on this in a later prediction post.

My picks: $BTRFLY $BADGER $INV KP3R $ANGLE

Prediction 5: Rise of DAGs

“DAG” stands for Directed Acyclic Graph and its distributed ledger tech is often described as “blockchain 3.0”.

How DAGs work is outside the scope of this post, but to generalise new transactions are validated by the previous ones as opposed to miners validating a sequential number of blocks like a traditional blockchain, although not all projects use DAG tech in the same way.

For example some like $FTM uses a consensus DAG, where the output can still be a normal blockchain (so DAGs and blockchains are not always mutually exclusive). In contrast, others use DAGs at the account level (NANO) or transaction level (IOTA).

DAGs can reach consensus much faster than traditional blockchains (particularly proof of work chains) thus allowing the network to support higher TPS.

This scalability has already made $FTM one of the fastest and most scalable L1s (albeit with relatively limited decentralisation to date) and led to $FTM having an amazing 2021.

I predict the advantages DAGs give will become more well known and I can see a narrative forming around them at some point.

My picks: $FTM [shill me more]

So there you have my first 5 predictions for 2022. There’s at least another 5 to come. Hopefully I get to them before 2023, but if not, at least I can be fairly confident they’ll be accurate.