Thread by @donmoyn

I wrote about how the people who encouraged the Jan 6th insurrection are succeeding with a different strategy a year on: taking control of the machinery of elections. 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/a-year-on-th…

I've been studying election administration on and off for almost two decades. The concerted attack we are seeing now on local election officials is new. 2/

Steve Bannon has pushed a "precinct strategy"--where Trumpists dedicated to the Big Lie capture the local GOP apparatus--as a means of "taking over all the elections.” (Local party officials appoint key election roles in many states). It's working. 3/ propublica.org/article/heedin…

In addition to the bottom-up "precinct strategy" state laws that give legislatures more control over election positions allows a top-down approach. Here is how it's been used in Georgia. 4/ donmoynihan.substack.com/p/a-year-on-th…

The formal efforts to take control of key election positions is being complemented by an informal but widespread strategy of intimidation of election officials who refused to conform to the Big Lie narrative. This should be a much bigger story. 5/ graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION/T…

If you are a local election official who did a good job in 2020, there is a good chance you have faced accusations of engaging in fraud, or threats to your life. Not surprisingly, many of these officials are quitting. 6/

Again, it's key to understand that formal instruments of power are used to the same end as informal intimidation. Bogus "election audits" are used to threaten election officials. In WI, a former Judge who declared the election was stolen is threatening to jail election officials.

Here is why attacks on election officials matter: a wrench in Trump's 2020 plan to get legislatures to overturn their results was that election officials refused to give them the ammunition to do so. Replace them w Trump loyalists, and the outcome looks very different in 2024. 8/

People are most worried about another attempt to overturn a presidential election. But even if Trumpist targeting of election officials does not determine the 2024 results, it is still doing real damage to our democracy in two ways: undermining competence and legitimacy. 9/

Running election is a complex task, w high stakes and no do-overs, and which we delegate mostly to local government. As we replace experienced and competent professionals with people largely motivated by conspiracy theories, the quality of election administration will fall. 10/

Most Republicans share the false belief of the Jan 6th insurrectionists: that US elections are illegitimate. Their actions show why such beliefs are dangerous for democracy. The current attack on election officials increases the chance Dems will come to share those views. 11/

What to do? The DOJ and local police should be prosecuting death threats to election officials that do not qualify as protected speech. Historically, it's not been a good thing when law enforcement ignored intimidation in American elections. 12/ graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION/T…

Because of the nature of the US system, and the balance of power right now, most solutions depend on both parties at the national level co-operating to protect elections. And that's just not happening b/c one party believes that undermining democracy benefits them. 13/

Whew! Sorry for the long thread. Thanks for reading and sharing. There will be a lot of Jan 6th takes out there today, so I wanted to contribute by providing fact-based insights about election administration, and why it should have us worried for the future. Fin/